The Los Angeles Angels started the season looking like the Houston Astros’ primary competition for the AL West title, but injuries have taken their toll on the Halos, particularly in the pitching staff. Los Angeles now sits at .500 and will have to play spoiler for the Astros as they host Houston in a three game series starting on Friday night. In that game, Houston should have Dallas Keuchel lined up to start opposite the Angels’ Andrew Heaney.
First pitch of the game between the Astros and Angels is scheduled for Friday, August 24, 2018, at 10:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium. The matchup will be televised nationally on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
Since getting swept by the Mariners, the Astros haven’t been playing their best baseball as they’ve struggled with key injuries to Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and George Springer. Without those three, the Astros were without their spine up the middle and they played like it. Fortunately for Houston, they’re all three back.
When the lineup is at least mostly intact, they’re one of the best offenses in baseball, having scored the fourth most runs in baseball, 30 more than the Angels.
Altuve bring a .327 average and .391 OBP to the mix and adds some speed. Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel meanwhile both have solid averages, too, though Bregman’s in the midst of a break out season with 24 home runs, 77 RBIs and a .899 OPS. He’s bringing speed, power and average to the mix.
Then, with Correa and Evan Gattis, the lineup just gets deeper and better. Josh Reddick isn’t likely to play in the game against a southpaw, but Tony Kemp has been great since getting recalled and could get the start. He has a 124 OPS+. Tyler White also adds to the depth with a .290 average and seven homers in 106 plate appearances.
On the other side of the matchup, the Angels don’t have nearly the same depth. Mike Trout has been out with wrist inflammation and for a death in the family. He may be back for Friday, but it’s uncertain. Obviously the return of the best player in baseball would be a huge boost for the Angels. Even missing some time, Trout has a 1.083 OPS with 30 home runs.
If Trout doesn’t come back, the Angels could really be in trouble offensively. Justin Upton just went on the DL, leaving Andrelton Simmons and Shohei Ohtani as the only players with an OPS+ over 100 and more than 75 at bats.
That’s a bit misleading given Kole Calhoun’s terrible first half and strong performance since coming off the DL, but even with Calhoun, the lineup is shallow. After all, Albert Pujols is still hitting in the middle of the order despite a .291 OBP and little else outside of his power.
Probable Pitchers
Dallas Keuchel will toe the rubber for the Astros on Friday night.
The 30-year old southpaw is in his Free Agent season and trying to make an impression while also trying to help get the Astros back to the Fall Classic.
Keuchel’s a former Cy Young Award winner, but in a rotation with Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton—all three All-Stars this year, Keuchel hasn’t gotten as much national attention. Nevetheless, he’s still had a good year.
The lefty is just 9-10, but has a 3.59 ERA and 1.257 WHIP in 160.2 innings. He’s been an above average starter this year. His strikeouts are down a bit, but he’s been focused on getting weak contact. His walk rate is also down below his career norms.
Keuchel’s last start was a bit rough. He allowed five runs in 5.2 innings to the A’s in route to a loss, but prior to that game, he had three straight quality starts in which he allowed five combined earned runs in 20 innings.
Meanwhile, in his last start against the Angels, he went 7.2 innings and gave up on one unearned run on two hits and a walk.
The Angels haven’t announced their starters for the series and have been juggling their rotation around given the plethora of injuries. Andrew Heaney would be in line to make the start if they want to go that way.
Heaney has been the most reliable starter all year. He leads the team with 23 starts and is 7-7 with a 4.11 ERA in 140 inning of work. There are other starters for the Halos with better numbers, but not any that’s more reliable to take the ball every fifth day.
The 27-year old southpaw has a solid 101 ERA+, but he’s seemingly outpitched his ERA given his 3.80 FIP and 1.179 WHIP. He’s striking out nearly a batter per inning and has a respectable walk rate of 2.4 per nine innings.
In the end, Heaney is a solid pitcher and one of the only ones from the rotation back in April still healthy and pitching.
Live Betting
Leading into the trade deadline, the big story in Houston was their need for a closer. The Astros used their rotation arms in relief to make their way through the 2017 postseason and there was uncertainty if they had the closer the team needed in place.
The Astros added Roberto Osuna to help in that regard, but he’s not been given the closer’s role as Houston threads the needle of the delicate situation Osuna puts them in.
Despite apparent uncertainty in the ninth, the Astros have the best bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.10. Hector Rondon has stepped into the closer role and thrived. He’s got a 2.31 ERA and 14 saves. He’s striking out 10.4 per nine and limiting both walks and homers.
The Astros pen is loaded with arms that can strike you out. Collin McHugh has been lights out in the pen all year while Will Harris, Joe Smith, Tony Sipp and the newly acquired Ryan Pressly and Osuna all have swing and miss stuff while providing different looks. A.J. Hinch has options late in the game.
Mike Scioscia’s pen has been pretty strong, too, though not to the extent as Hinch’s.
The Angels have gotten quality innings from Blake Parker, Cam Bedrosian and Jose Alvarez amongst others. There aren’t nearly as many strikeouts in the Angel bullpen however. There are also a few more walks.
MLB Pick
Look past Houston’s recent struggles and to their healthier lineup. The Astros have won five of nine this season against the Angels and should be in line for their sixth win against them Friday.
Bank on six strong innings from Keuchel. It’s not likely he’ll be able to replicate what he did against the Angels back in July, but a quality start is certainly likely, particularly with Justin Upton going on the DL. Trout may or may not be back, that’ll make some of a difference. Either way, the Angels will struggle to do much against Keuchel and, from there, the Houston bullpen is deep enough to close out the win.
Meanwhile, look for the Astros offense to get to Heaney for a few runs and add on a couple more against the Halos’ pen, grabbing the win in the series opener.
MLB Odds: Astros 5, Angels 3
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