The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros will wrap up a three-game series at historic Fenway Park on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball as the division leaders square off in a potential postseason preview. This will be the last meeting between these two teams in the 2018 regular season as they each send a former AL Cy Young Award winner to the hill with Dallas Keuchel getting the start for the Astros against the Sox’s Rick Porcello.
First pitch of the game between the Astros and Red Sox is scheduled for Sunday, September 9, 2018, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The matchup will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
The Astros and Red Sox split four games in their first series with that series happening in Houston. The Sox have been great regardless of venue, but they’re sporting an almost unfathomable .727 winning percentage at home. Houston, however, is a better road team.
It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. We have two elite teams going head-to-head. Boston has 10 more wins than the Astros, but Houston is 12-3 in their last 15 games while the Sox are 9-8 in their last 17.
Offensive improvements are some of the reason for the Astros’ recent run of success. The team has finally gotten healthy with Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa all off the DL and joining Alex Bregman who has played as well as anyone in the second half with a .320/.421/.601 slash line, nine jacks and 32 RBIs.
Of course, Boston is still the best offense in baseball. They’ve outscored Houston by 71 runs and have an average, OBP and slugging percentage all at least 10-points higher than the Astros.
Boston’s got two MVP candidates in Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez along with a slew of other options that can be a hero any given day.
There’s a ton of power, speed and contact up-and-down the lineup with catcher the only position that offers the pitcher any sort of break.
Probable Pitchers
Rick Porcello is on the mound for the Red Sox in this game. The 2016 AL Cy Young Award winner won 22 games and pitched to a 3.15 ERA when he took home the hardware, but hasn’t been the same pitcher since. He had a 4.65 ERA last year with 17 losses. He’s been in between in 2018 with a 4.20 ERA and 3.92 FIP.
The 29-year old right-hander has a 104 ERA+, categorizing him as a dependable mid-rotation arm. While he’s clearly behind the injured Chris Sale and suddenly dominant again David Price in the rotation, he leads Boston in wins, going 16-7 in his 29 starts. Overall, the Sox are 19-10 when he gets the ball.
Porcello is coming off a strong—but short—outing against the Braves his last time out, allowing just a single run on two hits in five innings. While a solo home run was his lone mistake, the righty tossed 100 pitches in five innings. It was the third straight game he failed to record an out in the sixth. He’ll need to be more pitch efficient if he wants to help the bullpen and go deeper on Sunday.
While the pitch efficiency wasn’t there his last time, the results were much better than his previous three starts where he combined to allowed 12 runs in 17 innings.
Overall, Porcello has a career high strikeout rate and has done well limiting hits, but he has allowed 24 home runs and does have his highest walk rate since 2012. In his only start against the Astros this year, the righty went 6.1 innings, allowing three runs—two earned—in route to his eighth win of the season.
On the other side of this matchup, Dallas Keuchel is an extra year removed from his Cy Young season, winning the award in 2015. Like Porcello, he had a down year the year after, but he’s been good the last two years. He had a 2.90 ERA last year.
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Keuchel this year as he was the lone struggling pitcher early on with a 4.45 ERA in his first 14 starts. In his 15 since, he’s gone 8-2 with a 2.57 ERA in 94.2 innings. Overall, the Astros are 17-12 when he pitches, winning 11 of those 17 games in his last 14 starts.
Cumulatively, the 30-year old southpaw is 11-10 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.252 WHIP. His FIP is a solid 3.60 as he’s had a low strikeout rate, but done well inducing weak contact and keeping the ball in the yard.
Over his career, Keuchel has always done better at home than on the road, except for this year. He’s 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA in 15 starts away from Minute Maid Park in 2018.
The lefty didn’t face the Sox earlier this year, but he’s made three career appearances against Boston with poor results, allowing 15 runs in 13.2 combined innings.
Live Betting
The Astros have an edge in the bullpen.
While the Red Sox’s pen is still well above average in the grand scheme of the sport, the Astros’ pen is deep and downright filthy.
Houston has the best bullpen ERA in baseball and can go 10 deep with players capable of striking out at least a batter an inning, if you include recently promoted prospect Cionel Perez. Even excluding him, the options for A.J. Hinch are plentiful.
Hector Rondon has emerged as a strong closer while Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock have bloomed in the bullpen. They’ve been essential to the team’s success in the backend so much so that Houston has opted to go with unproven arms to start the games in place of Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers to keep them in their roles.
Midseason additions Ryan Pressly and Roberto Osuna have combined to allow only five total runs in 29.2 innings, adding to a list of set up options that already included Chris Devenski, Will Harris, Joe Smith and Tony Sipp.
While the Boston bullpen is still strong, the middle relievers have had a bump or two in the road in the second half. The pen has seemingly turned the corner and gotten back on track the last week, but there are still questions leading up to Craig Kimbrel.
MLB Pick
Good pitching beats good hitting. Both of these teams have good hitting, but the Astros get the advantage on the mound in this game.
Houston has the better bullpen, deeper with a litany of options for A.J. Hinch. While Alex Cora, arguably, has the better lineup—or at least the better top guys given the dueling MVP candidates—pitching will win out in this one.
Look for Keuchel to pitch well and hold the Red Sox’s lineup at bay. He’s been a great pitcher of late. Look for that to continue, even against a stacked Boston lineup. Meanwhile, look for Porcello to allow a few runs against a good Houston lineup and turn the ball over to the pen ahead of Keuchel.
From there, the Houston pen will out pitch the Sox’s pen and maintain the narrow lead in what should be a really good game between two of baseball’s best teams.
MLB Odds: Astros 5, Red Sox 4
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
