The Atlanta Braves entered the season as one of the favorites to win the NL East. It was also expected to be a bonafide threat to cash in on the World Series futures odds at online sportsbooks. Brian Snitker’s troops have failed to live up to the lofty expectations entering the 11th week of the baseball betting season sitting three games under the breakeven point. On the flipside, Alex Cora’s Boston Red Sox have seemingly come from out of nowhere to become one of the best investments in the game after clocking in as one of the worst over the previous two seasons. The team is already nearly halfway towards eclipsing its season win total 80.5 with 96 more games remaining on the docket. They’ll close this abbreviated series out on Hump Day night with right-hander Garret Richards looking to avenge a loss incurred to the Braves back on May 25. Opposing him will be Ian Anderson who’s had an up and down rookie campaign, but enters start No. 13 off arguably his best outing of the year. These teams split their two most recent games at Fenway. The over has cashed in six of the last seven overall meetings dating back to 2020.
First pitch for the interleague showdown between the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves is scheduled for Wednesday, June 16, 2021, at 7 p.m. ET from Truist Park with live coverage airing on ESPN. Bet on MLB odds and player props at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
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Odds Analysis
Raise your hand if you had the BoSox pegged as one of the biggest moneymakers in the game heading into the regular season. You’re a boldfaced liar if it’s up! The Red Sox cost MLB bettors upwards of $750 last season and over $2K the year prior. No reason to think that would change this year without many wholesale changes made to the roster. In fact, the biggest move might just be the return of Cora after serving a year suspension. The skipper has led the team to 39 wins through 56 games; good for a $1K+ return on investment. Boston clocks in as a +350 dog to win the AL East behind the Yankees +215 and Rays +1500. Most impressive has been the ability to win on the road evidenced by a 20-10 overall record $1121. As for Atlanta, it’s tripped and stumbled all over itself to the tune of a disappointing 30-33 record that’s amounted to a $755 deficit with nearly $500 of it coming at home where it’s only managed to produce a 17-17 record. As mediocre a start the team has gotten out to +330, it still only sits 5-games in back of the New York Mets -305 for division bragging rights.
Probable Pitchers
Garrett Richards: The righty is the owner of a 4.09 ERA and 1.59 WHIP through just over 70 innings. Opponents are batting .286 against him, and he’ll now square off against an Atlanta offense that rakes right-handed pitching to the tune of a .740 OPS No. 6 and averages 4.6 runs per game No. 10. Richards has failed to reach the seventh inning in each of his last six starts with only half being of quality. While his 3.83 FIP is a tad lower than his ERA, I’m not sure positive regression is headed his way due to allowing 10.0 hits and 4.4 BB per nine innings. He has however run up against the tough offenses of the Blue Jays, Yankees, Astros, Braves and A’s since the middle of May and lived to tell about it.
Ian Anderson: The right-hander shined in limited work a season ago leaving many to believe he would be one of the driving forces in Atlanta’s starting rotation throughout 2021. While his 4-3 record and 3.26 ERA are solid, it’s not exactly where his fantasy baseball supporters thought it would be at this point of the year. While he’s only conceded 52 hits and 24 ER while racking up 69 strikeouts over 66+ innings, his main issue has been logging elevated pitch counts through limited innings due to an inflated number of walks. Anderson’s issued a total of 26 free passes which equates to 3.5 per nine innings. Because of it, only half of his 12 made starts have been of quality. The second-year hurler has however held the opposition to a .196 BAA in night games.
Red Sox vs. Braves Prediction
The Braves offense entered the week slumping having averaged just 4.0 runs per game against the Phillies and Marlins on the road. Here’s an idea; get Ronald Acuna Jr. out of the leadoff spot! For the life of me I have no idea why managers elect to bat their superstars lead-off. Fernando Tatis Jr. was doing the same up until recently. Since he’s been moved to the 4-hole, he’s launched a pair of grand slams! I think it’s time to install him into a more favorable slot in the lineup. It’s now or possibly never for the homebased Braves. With series upcoming against the Cardinals, Mets, Reds and Mets again, the season can get away real quick if it doesn’t get out of this inconsistent funk. I don’t know how much longer Boston can continue to overachieve with it getting next to nothing from its starting staff; it ranks No. 25 in the quality start department and has the No. 27 ranked defense in back of it. I’m not buying the Red Sox nor am I of the belief Richards holds the Braves to just 6 hits and 3 ER through 5.2 innings with Acuna Jr. and company back in the comforts of their own ballpark. Anderson’s the better starter in this matchup. With that, I’ll elect to back Atlanta on the first five innings moneyline so as to take its 27th ranked bullpen out of the equation.
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