Since trouncing the Baltimore Orioles in the season opener, the Boston Red Sox have been nothing short of brutal in dropping the series to the O’s and then getting embarrassed on Monday night at home against the same New York Mets squad they’ll square off against in front of a nationally televised audience on Thursday night. Ron Roenicke’s squad hasn’t had much of any issue scoring runs as loaded the batting lineup is, but the pitching has left much to be desired; especially with both Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale out for the foreseeable future. Martin Perez will attempt to bounce back from his poor BoSox debut when he squares off against Steven Matz in the likely final meeting of the season between the two clubs. Matz was in line to pick up the win in his season debut before Edwin Diaz prevented that from occurring in the ninth after incurring his first blown save of the abbreviated season - sound familiar Mets’ fans?
First pitch for the game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Mets is scheduled for Thursday, July 30, 2020, at 7:07 p.m. ET from Citi Field. The matchup will be shown live on FOX. You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
It’ll only be a matter of time until linemakers start adjusting for how bad the Red Sox have looked early on. Though the offense has raked out of the gates, the overall pitching staff has been nothing short of dreadful. It’s the only reason Boston has gotten out to a 1-3 start with the offense ranked No. 1 in batting average, No. 8 in OPS and No. 4 in runs scored. With that, you can expect Matz and the Mets to be installed prohibitive favorites to defend their turf in this one; especially after dropping two of three to the division rival Braves in their first homestand over the weekend. Should that prove to be the case, it could be a fruitful spot for MLB bettors to back the home team considering New York has come out on the right side of the scoreboard seven of the last 10 times Matz went off the board favored at home; the under cashed at a 4-3-3 clip in those matchups.
Probable Pitchers
Perez took the bump in the second game of the series versus the Orioles in hopes of leading his club to a series win. Baltimore wasted no time jumping on the lefty tagging him for 5 runs through two innings. While he managed to last five innings it took 84 pitches to get there, and the stat line was far from pretty. He opposed 23 batters and allowed six hits and 4 ER while managing a poor 2:2 K/BB ratio. In Perez’s last 11 starts dating back to last season, his opponent has scored an average of 6.2 runs per game. Only three times during that stretch did a team score less than five runs against his team. You might want to think about firing up the Mets team total in this one!
Since succumbing to the injury bug back in 2017, Matz has been an above average pitcher. While it hasn’t shown in the W/L column in combining for 16 wins and 21 losses, his stats have been more than respectable across the board. Routinely the owner of an 8+ K/9 ratio and not one to kill himself with free passes, Matz has quietly lived up to the hype throughout his now six-year career. He was robbed of a win by Marcell Ozuna in his 2020 debut on Saturday after tossing six innings of 1 ER ball and registering 7 K to just a single walk. This will be his first career start against the Red Sox who went 24-30 versus left-handed starters in 2019 -$1630, and enter this tilt with inflated outputs against south paws after facing Tommy Milone and Wade LeBlanc.
Player to Watch
Jackie Bradley Jr. has gotten out to a scorching hot start to his 2020 campaign. His ability to get things done at the back end of the batting order has allowed for guys like Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and Mitch Moreland to accrue a bunch of counting stats through the team’s first four games. In a total of 14 at-bats, Bradley Jr. has amassed eight hits with a pair going for extra bases. Though yet to oppose Matz in his career, the Red Sox outfielder has shown well versus left-handers to date in going 4-for-7 with a double. Each of his RBI have occurred in night games as well, so Matz best make it a point to take care of him so as to not allow him to be on base for when the meat of the order steps up to the dish.
MLB Pick
I have no inclination whatsoever to back Boston with my hard earned money at this point in time. The starting pitching has been nothing short of nightmarish with it conceding an average of 5.5 runs per game as well as a 1.39 WHIP No. 21; only one quality start has been registered! The bullpen has also issued five walks through just over 12 total innings of work. On top of all that, the defense has been flat out atrocious in committing four errors No. 27. Though Atlanta took two of three from them early on, I still have high hopes for the Mets moving forward. I can’t say the same for the BoSox who’ve struggled out of the gate. Look for Matz to once again be brilliant and build the bridge to Seth Lugo and the Mets bullpen to seal the deal.
MLB Odds: Mets 6, Red Sox 3
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