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Bryce Harper is one of the biggest personalities in the game and going into his age 26 season, he’s also one of the youngest free agents we’ve seen in a while. That lines him up for a potential big payday, but where will the slugger land? He’s coming off a strong season where he hit 34 home runs and drove in 100, but he batted .249 and struggled through most of the first half. He is, of course, a former MVP and has already hit 184 home runs, sporting a career .279/.388/.512 slash line. The talent is enormous and his new home is the biggest story this hot stove season.
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HARPER’S POTENTIAL LANDING SPOTS AND ODDS
| TEAM |
ODDS |
| Philadelphia Phillies |
+125 |
| Chicago Cubs |
+200 |
| Los Angeles Angels |
+1250 |
| San Francisco Giants |
+1250 |
| Washington Nationals |
+1500 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers |
+2000 |
| Milwaukee Brewers |
+3000 |
| St. Louis Cardinals |
+3000 |
| Atlanta Braves |
+5000 |
| Colorado Rockies |
+5000 |
| Field – Any Other Team |
+500 |
KEY FACTORS
For any free agent signing, it comes down to several ingredients: team need, team finances, player motivation, agent, and winning, just to highlight a few.
For Harper, finances will play a larger role than most as he’s already reportedly turned down a 10-year, $300 million offer to stay with the Washington Nationals.
A salary that lucrative automatically eliminates several teams. There’s a reason the Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland Athletics, Minnesota Twins and other small market teams aren’t listed amongst the contenders. They cannot afford him.
For the teams that can afford him, how many need him? Most of the big market teams reset their luxury tax percentage by standing under the threshold last year, leaving teams like the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers—amongst others—available to bid without fear of going over a threshold they’re almost assuredly going to exceed. Still, there are teams that have the wherewithal to afford him and openness to sign such a large contract who don’t figure to be interested. The Yankees are one.
New York doesn’t appear on the odds list because the team is already stacked with outfield depth. The team can always move pieces to make room, but they’re much more focused on pitching help right now with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Hicks and Clint Frazier already vying for spots in a crowded outfield.
As for some of the other factors, Harper is an interesting personality. He’s a hardnosed player who has—at times—seemed a bit over the top. He’s one that would fit in a large market team with the spotlight on him. He shows up in those situations as evident by his Home Run Derby win this season. As for the agent, he’s got Scott Boras and that’s important. Boras is known for getting his client top dollar and most players don’t go with Boras if they’re inclined to take a hometown discount. Boras plays the market. He’s willing to wait out teams and that could impact how the market shakes out.
ODDS BREAKDOWN
The Phillies are the favorites here in early November and reports have been adamant that Philadelphia is ready to spend big. The Phillies sported one of the highest payrolls back during their most recent run atop the NL East. They have the money to make a big splash and were a contending team until September last year. They’re positioned with young talent to make a move. They bolstered their rotation last winter with the addition of Jake Arrieta and could use some more offense. They may be a team that’s one move away. Could Harper be that move?
For the Phillies, the most obvious positions for that extra thunder they need in the lineup are at shortstop and the outfield. That lines up well for Harper, but it also fits another free agent: Manny Machado.
While Machado is a shortstop and third baseman, his free agency could directly impact Harper and the Phillies are a prime example. Philadelphia is motivated to land a big bat, but they could go either way. They could, in theory, sign both, but that would be tying up more than $60 million a year for the next decade on two players. They’ve already been burned by a large contract to Ryan Howard so it’s hard to see the franchise go all in on two players. They’ll likely get one, but which one. The front office is full of former Baltimore Oriole executives who were part of the team that drafted Machado. He would seem like the fit.
Moving down the list, the Cubs are the next most favored team to land Harper, but is there a fit? Chicago has the money and has a lot of affordable, young talent to allow the room, but signing Harper long term could hinder the team’s chances of retaining Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez down the road. The outfield is already bogged down by the Jason Heyward contract with Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist, Albert Almora and Kyle Shwarber all vying for time in the outfield. Chicago is also a strong believer in sabermetrics and WAR wasn’t favorable to Harper this year. He was worth just 1.8 WAR, a rather pedestrian figure.
After the Cubs, there’s a big jump in the odds with the Angels and Giants next. San Francisco is an interesting choice. He could fill the Barry Bonds roll out there. Bonds was a polarizing figure much like Harper—though for different reasons. Harper could thrive as the man in a big city like San Francisco while also given the Giants some much needed power. In an era where the homers are flying, the Giants have been left out, consistently ranking near the bottom of the league in homers.
As for the Angels, partnering Harper with Mike Trout is certainly alluring, but Trout isn’t far from his own free agency and would the Angels opt to sign Harper long term knowing that means Trout is almost certain not to be back? Besides, Arte Moreno has been reluctant to add a big contract since being burned by Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. They also have a lofty payroll already with $116M already allocated for 2019. Of course, a similar issue exists in San Francisco and Chicago though the Angels are also in desperate need of pitching help in the rotation and the bullpen.
The other team in the Los Angeles area, the Dodgers, have longer odds, but may be the better bet. They stayed under the luxury tax limit in 2018 and are likely to spend big again. With Corey Seager coming back, Manny Machado likely walks, opening the door for a different superstar. While Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Verdugo, Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor, and Enrique Hernandez give L.A. a plethora of outfield options already, they could find room for Harper and he’d look good in the middle of the order.
Harper’s current team is involved in the conversation, too. They’re the only team—to this point—that we know has offered him a contract. He turned down 10/$300M to test the market, but will he find greener pastures? He may want to move on, but he’s been the face of the Nationals for a while and has a lot of fans in the area. Even in today’s day and age, there’s something to be said for playing your career with a single team and becoming an icon to a city. Harper could be drawn to that idea, if the money is right.
For the rest of the listed team, including the Brewers, Cardinals, Braves and Rockies, the Cardinals and Rockies make the most sense. Milwaukee isn’t a big market team and they already have a good outfield with Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Ryan Braun. The money they have needs to go to find pitching. The Braves need relief help and have an opening in the outfield, but it’s hard seeing them going to the lengths it would take to get Harper. They haven’t been willing to pursue the big free agent on the market for quite some time.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, have made offers to Jason Heyward, David Price and tried to trade for Giancarlo Stanton in recent past. They’ve fallen short regularly and could again with Harper, but they have a need. Plugging him in the outfield immediately helps their lineup fall into place. As for the Rockies, the market may not be big enough for a personality like Harper and the team may be saving to resign Nolan Arenado, favoring one of their own, but he certainly could challenge a few home run records at Coors and that’s got to be appealing.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Phillies have a reasonable shot at Harper and are likely to land either him or Machado, but they’re the chalk pick and the odds won’t pay out much if they’re his ultimate landing spot. The field also won’t pay that favorably. The Yankees could be part of it, but another wildcard team is the Chicago White Sox. They could look to jumpstart their rebuild, but like Philadelphia, could factor more in the Machado sweepstakes.
Perhaps the best bet is for Harper to return to Washington. The Nationals have already expressed interest in keeping him with an extension offer off $300M. That’s certainly in the ballpark of where he ultimately figures to land. Juan Soto and Victor Robles mean Harper is a necessity in Washington, but he’s got the star power there. He’s loved in the Nation’s Capital and keeping him around is good marketing.
The Giants are another solid choice. San Francisco needs to decide its direction under new present of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, but they’ve long been a franchise not afraid to go after the older players. They’ve been reluctant to rebuild in the past. While Harper isn’t old, it’ll take a long contract to lure him and a 12-year commitment may be less likely to scare San Francisco than other teams, though Zaidi’s presence may change that.
For more of a longshot pick, the Cardinals could be the team. It’s hard to see Harper land in the middle of the country, but St. Louis has played on big free agents in recent years. They may be tired of coming up short and with Boras as his agent, it’s likely going to be about the top dollar.
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