The Philadelphia Phillies had a tough time at the start of the season falling way below expectations. When that happens changes are made and it’s always the manager that gets canned. Seven games below .500 at the start of June, the Phils fired Joe Girardi. Seven games later they reached the break-even point. They’ve cooled off a bit since winning their first eight games under interim Rob Thomson and the Phils will be without Bryce Harper, one of the game’s top attractions, when they host the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball.
First pitch for this NL matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies is set for 7:08 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 3, 2022. The game will air live on ESPN from Citizens Bank Park. BookMaker.eu will have betting options for every game of the MLB season.
MLB Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
The Cards find themselves in a familiar spot in the standings hovering around first place with Milwaukee in what is essentially a two-team race. They enter this series having won 55 percent of their games but finished June with a loss to Miami leaving them at 14-14 over their last 28. We’ve also seen a reversal from what the Cards have done in the past. They’ve always had strong pitching and got just enough offense to win a bunch of games. This year it’s the offense carrying the load ranking sixth in MLB in runs per game and average.
The top of the rotation has been strong, but injuries to John Flaherty and Jordan Hicks leave the bottom in limbo. The Cards are turning to a 40-year-old veteran who has been the ace of the staff previously to once again take the role. Adam Wainwright is on track to start Sunday. He leads the team in wins making all 15 of his schedule starts. Like the rest of the team, though, Wainwright’s numbers are worse on the road. The Cards dropped seven of their previous 10 road contests and are just 19-19 away from Busch Stadium.
Making a managerial change usually sparks an immediate reaction. But rarely do we see one quite like the Phils. Expected to compete for the division and a playoff spot, the start of the season was excruciating. Five losing streaks of three games or more over the first two months left the Phils in a deep hole. A five-game slide at the end of May proved to be Girardi’s undoing. The club responded to the change quickly with Kyle Schwarber belting a leadoff home run in a 10-0 victory over the Angels in Thomson’s debut.
It’s unclear as to why, but the Phils have played like most expected since the change. They won their first eight under Thomson and were 17-8 in the first 25 games he managed. The offense picked up after the move scoring seven or more runs eight times. The loss of Harper will have an impact, though. He was putting up MVP-type numbers with a .318 average, 15 homers and a team best 48 RBIs.
Probable Pitchers
Two time 20-game winner Adam Wainwright (6-5, 3.07 ERA) is scheduled to take the bump on Sunday for his 16th career start against Philadelphia. Wano has turned back the clock and is coming off his fourth start with at least six innings of shutout ball. He baffled the Marlins with seven shutout innings last time out closing June on a positive note. In four previous starts he allowed 31 hits over 25 innings with a 4.68 ERA. Opponents hit .310 against him in those games. The Cards are 8-2 in Wainwright’s last 10 starts averaging 6.5 runs in those games.
Though he finished second in Cy Young voting last season, it seems to me like Zack Wheeler (6-4, 2.89 ERA) doesn’t get the recognition he deserves. Also, take into account his 2.83 ERA in 57 starts since 2020 and Wheeler has to be included among the best hurlers in baseball. He overcame a rough start to the year with a dominant stretch tossing shutout ball in three of four starts. He also has nine quality starts over his past 11 appearances. And he typically responds with a strong effort after a poor start. He allowed three earned in four of his 14 starts, including his last outing when the Braves got three off him in 6.1 frames. In his previous two starts after allowing at least three earned, Wheeler has a 0.00 ERA with giving up only five hits over 13 innings.
Cardinals at Phillies MLB Odds Pick
With the offense missing a key bat in the middle of the lineup it’s up to the pitching staff to silence opponents, and Wheeler is good at that rarely allowing crooked numbers. Strong starters who routinely go deep in games give value to the UNDER. And I think the Phils will rally without Harper continuing their run that’s got them in the playoff picture.
MLB Odds Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies / UNDER
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