The seventh week of the 2021 MLB betting season will come to an end in Busch Stadium under the lights of ESPN’s national telecast with the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals set to close out their first series of the year. The Redbirds hosted their hated rivals sitting atop the division standings with a 2.5-game lead representing one of the better investments of the young season. David Ross’s squad just pulled over the breakeven point and into the black at online sportsbooks after taking the first two from the Nats earlier in the week. It all adds up to a pivotal series that could see first place change hands. How it all plays out in the finale will be up to both Zach Davies and Kwang Hyun Kim with each largely disappointing in their previous trips to the starting bump. These teams split their 10 meetings a season ago with the home team only managing to come out on top four times and the under cashing in at a 6-3-1 clip.
First pitch for this NL Central showdown between the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals is scheduled for Sunday, May 23, 2021, at 7 p.m. ET from Busch Stadium. This week’s Sunday Night Baseball telecast will air live on ESPN. Bet on MLB odds and player props at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
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Odds Analysis
Thirty teams are represented in Major League Baseball. Of those 30 teams, only 12 possess a positive run differential 6+ weeks into the season. Chicago and St. Louis are two of them with the former checking in at +5 and the latter +17. The Cubs average just over 4.6 runs per game No. 8 while the Cardinals clock in at 4.4 No. 14. Not terrible, but not great. It’s all added up to Chicago playing to the under in 20 of their 41 played games and St. Louis cashing under tickets at a 19-19-3 clip. Again, very mediocre and not something baseball bettors can bank on to add to the bankroll with regularity. The Cards do however stand out in the money earned department having secured $345 worth of betting profit with a bulk of it incurred in front of the hometown faithful 13-8, $246. The Cubs only just got in the green $65 at the beginning of the week, but Anthony Rizzo and company have been wretched on the road where they’ve dropped 12 of 18 played games -$606.
Probable Pitchers
Zach Davies: When Davies was signed in the offseason to man one of the five starting spots in the Cubs rotation, fans of the franchise were only left to shake their collective head. The veteran hasn’t done much to change Cub Nation’s mind in going 2-2 with a bloated 5.58 ERA and .302 BAA. Surprisingly, only three of his nine made starts have combined to cash over tickets despite his poor numbers. The right-hander possesses a 5.22 FIP and serves up nearly five walks per start for crying out loud! It might seriously get worse before it gets any better, and that doesn’t bode well for him in this start running up against a Cardinals team he’s 2-3 against lifetime with a 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and insane .471 BAA! Matt Carpenter .480 AVG, 3 HR, Nolan Arenado and Yadier Molina have owned him so you might want to entertain the thought of targeting their player props.
Kwang Hyun Kim: MLB bettors now have a month’s worth of data to peruse when checking to see how Kim stacks up against all opposition. The left-hander has proved to be nothing but a streamer in deep leagues from a fantasy view point with him the owner of a 2.73 ERA and 27:8 K/BB ratio over the course of his 26.1 innings. While those outputs aren’t something to sneeze at, he simply hasn’t been able to go deep into games which has forced the Cardinals No. 17 ranked bullpen into action more than Mike Shildt would like. None of his six made starts have resulted in a quality effort, and his season-high for pitches thrown clocks in at 88. He simply just hasn’t been efficient or effective with his pitch selections. With limited work against Chicago 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 1:3 K/BB ratio, it’s tough to gauge his performance for this one. That said, the Cubs rank out seventh best against south paws .768 OPS and average 6.4 runs per game 11-3, $810.
Cardinals vs. Padres Prediction
So I recommended smashing the over in Kim’s last start pre-game as well as in-game if runs weren’t scored early on. Unfortunately, the Redbirds tallied two in the first to prevent the latter from occurring. Even with 15 hits tallied, the game still only managed to go over the closing impost by half a run. With St. Louis down a pair of important bats in Tyler O’Neill and Paul DeJong with each recently hitting the IL, I won’t be getting involved with the total. But with Davies and his .456 career BAA toeing the Busch Stadium bump, I want nothing to do with backing Chicago in the finale; regardless of how well it’s excelled against south paws early on. With St. Louis coming up short in last week’s nationally televised matchup against the Friars, I fully expect them to come out determined to make amends. I’m still not a believer in my beloved Cubs even though they’ve shown some dramatic improvement recently. If they win this series, I’ll start buying in. Until then, I’ll continue riding the fade train and back the host Cardinals in Sunday night’s series finale.
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