One overachiever against an underachiever hits the airwaves on Wednesday when the Baltimore Orioles host the Chicago White Sox on FS1. The O’s have surprised everyone with their play this season moving five games over .500 after taking two of three from the Red Sox over the weekend. The O’s are in the thick of the wild card race after being projected by most to finish at the bottom of the AL East with long odds to reach the postseason. Heck, the season is already a success since Baltimore eclipsed its win total from any of the previous four seasons. The favorite to win the AL Central, the Sox find themselves 2.5 games off the lead looking for a late spurt to get them to the top.
First pitch for this AL contest between the Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, August 24, 2022 from Camden Yards in Baltimore. The matchup will air live on FS1. Bet on MLB odds and player props at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
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Odds Analysis
After last season the Sox were the pick to win the AL Central. They won 93 games, their most in 16 seasons, to earn the favorite label. They still can win the crown, but the season has been a disaster by any other metric. And their play over the last week shows just how inconsistent they’ve been. The Sox started a five-game winning streak beating Detroit on Aug. 12. They also posted a pair of wins over AL leading Houston. But just like that the streak ended with the Astros putting an exclamation point on the series finale with a 21-5 victory.
They closed the week shutting out Cleveland, 2-0, improving to 62-59, but the Sox are the only team with a winning record to have a negative run differential. As a result they are 55-66 ATS putting them down nearly $1300 on the runline. The Sox have been better on the road sporting a 32-28 record. That’s a good sign for them after dropping three of four home games to the O’s back in June cashing the UNDER in all four contests.
The experts aren’t always right and they messed up with the Orioles this season. You can’t really blame them for not expecting much after the O’s were the worst in MLB for a few years. And they didn’t do a lot to improve the club. But the young guys have stepped up this year getting better as the season moved along. They were nine-games under .500 on July 3 then reeled off six straight wins while winning two-thirds of their games after Sunday’s 5-3 win over Boston.
A big underdog winning 52.1 percent of its games makes for a cash cow and the O’s are easily the most profitable team in MLB. They are up $1820 on the moneyline at home, which is more than any other team at all venues, and in the black $2541 for the season leaves Baltimore as the best investment by a wide margin. The markets are starting to catch up, but the O’s are still a good wager with their ability to win games in a variety of ways.
Probable Pitchers
Part of Chicago’s problem can be traced back to the pitching staff, in particular Lucas Giolito (9-7, 5.34 ERA). It’s been a struggle for the righty with his ERA a run and a half higher than it was in 2021. And his issues have been a surprise since he posted a 3.47 ERA in 72 starts over the previous three seasons. Six times in his 22 starts Giolito has allowed at least five earned runs, including his last outing when he lasted only three innings giving up seven runs on eight hits in a loss to the Astros. Giving up a heck of a lot more base runners, Giolito has a 1.53 WHIP this season compared to a 1.10 WHIP last year, and he’s struggled in four lifetime starts against the O”s giving up 23 hits and 14 earned runs over 34.1 innings.
Part of the O’s success this year is a decent group of starters. It definitely looked like another lost season when ace John Means was lost early in the year, but guys like Spenser Watkins (4-3, 4.04 ERA) have stepped up. Since coming off a stint on the IL in late June, Watkins has ad 2.81 ERA covering 48 innings. That first game back was a memorable one giving up five hits and no earned runs over five innings to beat the Sox 6-2. It’s a small sample size, but in two career starts against Chicago Watkins has a 0.96 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.
White Sox at Orioles Prediction
While we continue to wait for the White Sox to show some signs of being the favorite in the AL Central, the O’s have to feel like they’re playing with house money. They weren’t expected to win as many games as they already and they had the longest odds of any AL club to reach the postseason. The season has already been a success but the O’s want more, and they will get more with a win in this one.
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