Two premiere strikeout artists will cross paths at online sportsbooks on Saturday night when Lance Lynn squares off against Framber Valdez in the third of an extended four-game series between the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros. Both teams had been playing some white hot baseball entering the series with Chicago and Houston winning eight of 12 played games in the month of June. Because of it, Tony LaRussa’s squad currently owns a 4.5-game lead atop the AL Central over the Cleveland Indians; while Dusty Baker’s troops are nipping at the heels of the Oakland A’s sitting 2.5-games back in the AL West. This series marks the first between these teams since 2019 when the Palehose took four of seven and split the four-game series at “The Juice Box.” This is by far the best pitching matchup on Saturday’s slate, so strap in and be ready to attack the game from a number of different betting angles!
First pitch for this non-divisional AL showdown between the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros is scheduled for Saturday, June 19, 2021, at 7:15 p.m. ET from Minute Maid Park with live coverage airing on FOX. Bet on MLB odds and player props at BookMaker.eu for every day of the season.
MLB Betting Lines at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
Chicago’s been one of the more dominant teams regardless of the fact that it hasn’t been playing with a full deck ever since the first pitch of the season opener against the Los Angeles Angels. Regardless, the team has logged a 41-25 overall record that’s produced upwards of $400 worth of baseball betting profit. A bulk of the return however has been logged at home where it stands a resounding 25-12 $446. While the White Sox own a 16-13 record on the road, it’s cost baseball bettors a few shekels -$36. Still, only the Rays and Astros have averaged more runs per game on the road than Chicago 5.6. Houston’s produced winning marks both at home 20-13 and on the road 17-15. The 37-28 end result has added nearly $250 to the bottom line of their wagering supporter’s bankrolls. Since May, the Astros have only dropped one of the six series played in front of the hometown faithful. Only the Reds, Rockies, Blue Jays, Angels and Dodgers have averaged scoring more runs than the Astros 5.2 when in their home digs.
Probable Pitchers
Lance Lynn: This start will mark the second straight against top-tier opposition for the beefy right-hander. The one prior resulted in his first loss since April 15 after Tampa Bay touched him up for six hits 2 HR and 3 ER through his six innings of work. Even so, he’ll enter start No. 13 the owner of a 7-2 record, 1.51 ERA and miniscule 0.86 WHIP. While his underlying stats dictate some regression coming with his FIP clocking in at 3.25, that’s still nothing short of fantastic! How could you hate on a starting pitcher that owns 10.0 and 2.5 K/BB per nine innings that’s only conceding 5.9 hits and 1.0 home runs per nine innings? The answer is you can’t! That said, this will be his first road start since May 18 and it comes against arguably the toughest opponent he’s opposed outside of Chicago. The righty owns a career 3.94 ERA against the Astros, but Minute Maid has been none too kind where he’s been raked to the tune of a .562 BAA over eight career starts.
Framber Valdez: Valdez has been nothing short of dominating since returning from the IL at the end of May. Since then, he’s compiled a perfect 3-0 record and pitched to a 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and insanely low .185 BAA through 25.1 innings over four starts. After only managing to go 4.0 innings against the Padres in his season debut, he’s gone 7+ innings in three straight starts and notched victories each time. The left-hander will have his work cut out for himself in this one running up against a White Sox offense that’s chewed southpaws up and spit them out all season long. Chicago leads the league in scoring against left-handed pitchers 6.6 RPG. Because of it, they’ll enter this tilt with an impressive 16-4 record in those 20 games. The Twins, Red Sox and Padres all rank in the middle of the pack against lefties, so it will be interesting to see how Valdes fares in arguably his toughest test of the season.
White Sox vs. Astros Prediction
As impressive Lynn’s stat line looks heading into this start, a bulk of it has been registered against the subpar Royals, Indians, Twins, Orioles and Tigers. This tilt with the Astros will arguably be his toughest opponent to date. That bout with Vlad and the Blue Jays took place at home, but that won’t be the case when he trots to the bump in the bottom of the first in Houston. I’m hoping Chicago’s top ranking against left-handed pitching keeps the betting line for this tilt in check. I have Houston pegged as the side that should be favored with a locked in Valdez set to take the bump. If he’s able to go another seven strong innings, Houston’s pathetic bullpen should still be able to seal the deal. If not, my investments will be in trouble. Regardless, I’ll be targeting the over of Valdez’s K prop if in the 5-6.5 range, and will also look to back the homebased ‘Stros F5/FG provided linemakers don’t force them to lay anything more than -120 juice. If Valdez is forced from the game early and Houston has the lead, you might want to think about offsetting some liability on the Palehose readjusted live betting line; their bullpen is leaps and bounds better than Houston’s. Just make it a point to see which arms are available and which aren’t first.
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