The Arizona Diamondbacks and Houston Astros wrap up a three-game series on Sunday afternoon with a nationally televised showdown. Both teams are still battling it out for their respective divisions as the West presents some of the most intriguing storylines in both leagues. The series finale will feature an elite pitching matchup as each team’s ace takes the mound with Justin Verlander toeing the rubber for the Astros opposite the D-Backs’ Zack Greinke.
First pitch of the game between the Diamondbacks and Astros is schedulefor Sunday, September 16, 2018, at 2:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. The matchup will be broadcast on TBS.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
MLB Betting at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
Aside from the Red Sox who have already eclipsed the 100-win plateau, the Astros may be the best team in baseball. They’ve won 92 games, 15 more than the D-Backs.
While a better team overall than Arizona based on the record, the Astros are a better road team with a .703 winning percentage away from Minute Maid Park. They’ve just 40-32 at home. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are a better road team, too. Their .541 road winning percentage is comparable to the Astros’ home mark.
When these two teams played head-to-head in May, the Astros came away with the series win and have been the better team of late, too, winning 10 of 11 games in September, and going 17-4 in their last 21 contests. The Diamondbacks, on the other side, are slumping. They’ve dropped from the top spot in the NL West to third and are 3-9 in their last 12 games.
The Diamondbacks’ bullpen is a big part of the team’s recent slump.
Arizona’s bullpen still ranks in the top-5 in baseball with a 3.45 ERA, the second best mark in the NL. That number, however, has been rising as the pen has had its share of issues lately.
Brad Boxberger and Archie Bradley were nails at the end of the game for most of the year, but over the last month they’ve both been suspect. Boxberger has allowed nine runs in 8.1 innings over his last 11 games, walking six and losing three games while allowing two blown saves. Bradley has three blown saves in that time with five runs and 14 hits in the same number of innings.
Even with expanded rosters and Brad Ziegler and Yoshihisa Hirano throwing well, the D-Backs need their relief aces to get back on track.
On the other side of this matchup, the Astros’ bullpen looks as good as it has all year. The team is first in bullpen ERA at 2.89.
Since the All-Star break, Joe Smith has allowed two runs in 17.1 innings. Meanwhile, since being acquired, Ryan Pressly has allowed two runs in 18.2 innings while striking out 25, and Roberto Osuna has allowed four runs in 18 innings converting all eight save chances.
In addition to those three, Hector Rondon has been an effective close and now setup man, Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock have had fantastic season and list goes on with Tony Sipp sporting a 2.14 ERA, Chris Devenski providing a different look and Will Harris giving A.J. Hinch a plethora of options.
Probable Pitchers
It’s hard to find a better pitching matchup than Zack Greinke versus Justin Verlander which is on tap for this game. The aging aces are each in the midst of another All-Star season though Verlander has regressed some from a stellar first half while Greinke has had issues with the long ball at times on the year.
Despite a few blemishes, these are still two of the better right-handed pitchers in baseball and should each give their respective teams a chance to win, leaving us with a close, exciting game.
On Verlander’s side of the matchup, he comes in having gone 4-1 with a 3.82 ERA in his last five games, including beating his former team, the Tigers, on Monday.
The 35-year old right-hander leads the league with 195 innings, 31 starts and a 7.37 strikeout to walk ratio as he’s limited the opposition to just 35 walks to his 258 strikeouts. He’s inching in on a career high in Ks, 11 shy of his total from 2009.
Overall, he’s 15-9 with a 2.72 ERA and 2.96 FIP. He’s got a 0.944 WHIP and held the Diamondbacks to one run in six innings in his only start against them this year.
While this numbers are impressive, the righty has regressed in the second half. He went into the break with a 2.29 ERA. He’s 64 with a 3.77 ERA in 10 starts after the All-Star break.
Much like Verlander, Greinke is also coming off a win, tossing a quality start against the Rockies on Tuesday for his 14th victory. Also like Verlander, he’s regressed a bit of late.
Overall, the righty is now 14-9 and the D-Backs are 17-13 in his 30 starts. He’s pitching to a 3.11 ERA and 3.74 FIP in 188 innings. The veteran has a 1.053 FIP and while has given up some hits—and homers—has done well limiting walks, allowing just 37 to his 185 strikeouts.
This will be Greinke’s second start of the year against the Astros. He faced them back in May, tossing 5.1 innings, and allowing just a single run, on a homer. Arizona won that game.
In a more recently sampling, Greinke has thrown four quality starts in his last five games, but has allowed three runs or more in each of his last three starts.
Live Betting
Offensively, few teams can matchup with the combination of power, speed and contact that the Astros have in their lineup.
Alex Bregman has been the team MVP with a .296/.398/.556 slash line, 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. Meanwhile, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer are all All-Star caliber players. Then, when you add in other strong bats like Yuli Gurriel, Marwin Gonzalez, Josh Reddick, Evan Gattis, Tony Kemp and Tyler White, you end up with one of the deepest lineups—and benches—in baseball.
The Astros have 10 players with an OPS+ of at least 99 and four at 127 or higher. There are nine players with at least 10 home runs. Bregman, Springer and Gattis all have at least 20 bombs each.
This lineup is deep and can do damage top to bottom, offering no reprieve for the pitcher.
Speaking of the pitcher, Greinke has found success against a number of Astros hitters in his career, but Altuve is an exception. He’s 9-for-23 against Greinke with a homer, double, triple and walk, giving him a .391 average and 1.069 OPS. Brian McCann and Springer have also homered against him.
In the other dugout, the Diamondbacks have been a streaky team offensively. The rank in the middle of the pack in runs scored overall, but were abysmal in May, great in April and June and in between in other months. September has been another down month offensively. They’re hitting .221 as a team in 11 games.
Paul Goldschmidt is putting up is normal MVP-type numbers with a .300/.403/.560 slash line along with 33 homers. David Peralta has been great in the second half and has a .295/.353/.518 slash line of his own with 27 jacks. Beyond them, however, A.J. Pollock has cooled, Eduardo Escobar has settled in as an average bat, and Steven Souza Jr. has largely been a disappointment in his first season in the desert.
Head-to-head against Verlander, Alex Avilia is the only D-Back with a homer against him in his career while Goldschmidt is 2-for-8, Souza is 2-for-11 and Escobar is 2-for-15.
MLB Pick
This is an epic pitching matchup, even with both pitchers showing a bit of late season fatigue and regression. Both are still able to put their team in a position to win and, as a result, we should expect a low scoring game going into the later innings.
The bullpens will ultimately decide this games and given the Houston bullpen is pitching much better than Arizona’s late-inning arms right now, look for the Astros to get a late-game lead and the win, possibly on a walk-off.
The Astros offense is stacked, too, giving the team a further advantage over Arizona. Count on a tight game through the first six innings, but once the bullpens come in, look for the D-Backs’ to allow a couple runs to the Astros and Houston to walk away with the series finale on Sunday afternoon.
MLB Betting Odds: Astros 4, Diamondbacks 3
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
