The Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals will wrap up a four-game weekend series on Sunday Night as they square off in ESPN. The Cardinals have been a difficult opponent for the Dodgers in postseason play in the past, but both teams are now fighting to even make it to October. For the Cardinals a red-hot August put them in Wild Card position, but they’ll have to fight to stay there with teams like the Dodgers breathing down their necks.
First pitch of the game between the Diamondbacks and Astros is schedule for Sunday, September 16, 2018, at 8 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. The matchup will be broadcast on TBS.
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Odds Analysis
After trading away Tommy Pham at the trade deadline and looking like pretenders rather than contenders through July, the Cardinals turned their season around in August, going 22-6. They’ve regressed some since with a 5-6 start to September.
The biggest difference between the Cardinals of the first half and the team that’s been much better in the second has been the willingness, or in some cases necessity, to stray from the struggling veterans and give those players that have performed the playing time.
Harrison Bader is a great example. The centerfielder has vastly improved a lackluster bullpen while swinging a good bat, too.
Of course, nobody is hitting better than Matt Carpenter in the NL. The Cardinals corner infielder was terrible through mid-May with a .140 average, but now leads the team in OPS+, home runs and doubles. He’s batting .269 with 35 homers, 40 doubles and a .153 OPS+.
As a team, the Cardinals have scored more runs than any other team in baseball since the All-Star break. They’re hitting .260 as a squad in that time, have hit 72 homers and sported a .770 OPS.
The Cardinals have scored 32 more runs than the Dodgers since mid-July, but L.A. has a .769 OPS in that time and have hit a couple more home runs.
St. Louis’s second half numbers are propped up by an otherworldly August. They’ve regressed in September. On the other side, the Dodgers have continued at roughly the same level.
L.A. has a very deep lineup. David Freese has been a great bat of the bench this month while Dave Roberts continues to play the matchups to try and get his players at bats. As a whole, the team has six players with 20 homers and two with at least 30.
Here in September, 11 different Dodgers have already homered. Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, and Joc Pederson have all been playing exceptionally well. Turner is 12-for-39 this month with seven extra base hits, seven walks and eight runs scored.
Probable Pitchers
It’s a blast from the past on ESPN this Sunday as the Cardinals send Adam Wainwright to the mound for his second start in four months.
Wainwright pitched for the first time since mid-May on Monday, throwing 81 pitches over five innings against the Pirates. In typical Wainwright fashion, he kept the ball in the zone, but the 36-year old right-hander showed he’s past his prime, allowing four runs on seven hits, including a pair of home runs.
While rust was certainly a factor for the grizzled veteran, Wainwright is far removed from his ace-level peak. He’s just 1-3 with a 4.70 ERA this year in six starts and had a 5.11 ERA last year and 4.62 ERA back in 2016. His last full season of elite pitching came back in 2014 when he went 20-9 with a 2.38 ERA.
The righty, of course, still knows how to pitch and has more grit than most anyone else in baseball. He can battle his way through five or six innings while keeping the team in the game, but his days of dominating a lineup, particularly one as deep as the Dodgers, are behind him.
It’s hard to really know what to expect from Wainwright. The elite pitcher is gone, but it’s still hard to count him out, completely.
After all, he’s been a nemesis to the Dodgers in his career, pitching to a 2.69 ERA in 15 career games in the regular season. They got to him in the 2014 postseason, but he had their number in 2009 and 2013.
To counter Wainwright, the Dodgers figure to go with Alex Wood who would be in rotation to make the start. The Dodgers, however, did go with a six starts last time through so they could modify the rotation if needed.
Provided Wood does make the start, he’ll try to bounce back from a rough outing against the Red where he allowed seven runs without getting out of the fourth. The Dodgers lost the game, dropping them to 1-5 in Wood’s last six starts.
Despite the poor record, prior to the start against the Reds, Wood had allowed one run or fewer in four of his previous five starts.
On the season, Wood is just 8-7 and the Dodgers just 13-14 when he takes the mound, but he’s pitched reasonably well. The 27-year old southpaw has a 3.65 ERA and 3.55 FIP. He’s keeping the ball in the yard, for the most part, and has a reasonable walk rate and solid strikeout rate. He’s not an elite pitcher, but he’s been above average, throwing like a solid mid-rotation starter.
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The Cardinals’ bullpen was—along with defense—the team’s biggest weakness during its early season malaise. Then, when the team let Mike Matheny go, they swept out some of the underperforming arms like Greg Holland in favor of younger pitchers who were throwing well. It worked.
Since then, the St. Louis pen has been pretty solid. Carlos Martinez is now pitching out of the pen, adding another dynamic arm to Bud Norris and Jordan Hicks. While Brett Cecil continues to struggle, Mike Shidlt has been able to hide him, particularly with the expanded rosters, giving guys like Chasen Shreve more of the lefty matchups.
The St. Louis bullpen is still not an elite unit, but it’s better than the season numbers suggest. Unfortunately, however, Jordan Hicks and Bud Norris have both shown some fatigue over the last month. Fortunately, Martinez and Tyson Ross have stepped up nicely.
On the other side, the Dodgers’ bullpen is their biggest issue here in late September. Kenley Jansen is still an elite closer though his irregular heartbeat is a concern. The problem, however, are the options around him.
Kenta Maeda has been moved to the pen and was a lockdown arm last postseason, but he’s been hittable so far since his transition to relief. Scott Alexander is throwing the ball well right now with one run allowed in 9.2 innings over the last month, but the Dodgers need more than that. Pat Venditte, Zach Rosscup and others have pitched well recently, but it’s hard to get too carried away with such small sample sizes.
MLB Pick
The nostalgia is great, but don’t look for Wainwright to suddenly pitch like its 2014. His best days are behind him. The fact he’s made it back from injury, again, is great, but just how effective can we expect him to be?
Look for the righty to make it into the sixth inning and kept he game somewhat close, but he’ll fail to record a quality start and leave the Dodgers in the lead. Meanwhile, Wood should rebound from his loss to Cincinnati and go six strong before turning the ball over to the pen.
While the Dodgers’ pen is suspect, look for them to do enough to bridge the gap and get the ball to Kenley Jansen with the lead. From there, Jansen should close this one out.
The Cardinals were red hot throughout August and would’ve found a way to win during that hot stretch, but September is a different month and the Cards have fallen back to earth.
MLB Betting Odds: Dodgers 6, Cardinals 4
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