Due to the AL West as a whole struggling mightily out of the gates, the Houston Astros once again find themselves perched atop the AL West standings at 5-4 along with the Oakland A’s. It’s been a horrendously poor start for the Arizona Diamondbacks who’ve grossly failed to get the bats going at the start of the MLB betting season; only one team has scored fewer runs per game than that of Torey Lovullo’s squad. It won’t be easy tonight either for Ketel Marte and his mates who get the displeasure of staring back at Zach Greinke though the Snakes’ Zac Gallen could make things tough on the Astros’ bats as well. Look for online sportsbooks to have the visiting Astros installed slight road favorites for the finale of this three-game set; anything more than coin flip odds will place the betting value solely on the side of the home team.
First pitch for the game between the Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks is scheduled for Thursday, August 6, 2020, at 7:07 p.m. ET from Chase Field. The matchup will be shown live on FOX. You can bet on MLB Odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
Save for their two home games against the Dodgers, the Astros have been lined favorites in their other seven played games against the Angels and Mariners. They went 5-2 in those matchups yet only reeled in a $86 profit for MLB bettors. In dropping both games to Los Angeles, Houston entered Tuesday’s series opener with the Snakes down $114 overall for the season. As for Arizona, it’s been nothing short of a hot mess. I for one thought they had the pitching and offensive arsenal to at the very least compete for a playoff bid. Should the team continue to spit the bit at the plate like it has through its first 10 games, it’ll fail to live up to my expectations. Only the Indians and Pirates have a lower OPS against right-handers than the Diamondbacks. As for Houston, its .787 OPS versus righties ranks eighth in the league. With that, the offensive advantage lies with Houston on Thursday night.
Probable Pitchers
Zach Greinke: Whether the veteran right-hander is still shaking off the rust, the results haven’t been good through two starts for the former Cy Young Award winner. He managed to go just 3.1 innings in his season debut against the Mariners and conceded 4 hits and 3 ER with a pedestrian 2:2 K/BB ratio. Though he was much better in turn two going five innings before giving up a hit to the Angels, he still failed to go six innings and allowed two more earned runs that sent him to the showers early. He might however find some comfort returning to the bump in Arizona where he shined for the D’backs for 2+ seasons before getting traded to the Astros at the tail end of last season. He’s 7-3 with a 3.29 ERA and .246 BAA through 14 career starts against the Diamondbacks.
Zac Gallen: Arizona went on to defeat the San Diego Padres in the righty’s season debut, but it wasn’t because of his effort. Not after the youngster managed to go just four innings and issue five free passes. Gallen is widely considered to be an up and comer in the big leagues. He’s got the stuff to dominate, but needs to discover a way to temper his free passes dramatically. Even so, it truly says something about his overall body of work considering two of the D’backs three total wins have come with him toeing the starting bump. As it is, the righty is yet to earn a decision but has only surrendered seven hits (2 HR) and 3 ER while striking out 15 through 10 total innings. Still, the six walks are a concern. This will be his first career start against Houston.
Player Prop Targets
Nobody on the current Astros roster has seen Gallen’s stuff. Even so, you can pick from a number of Houston bats to have a good night in this matchup considering how lethal their sticks have been versus right-handed pitching. Alex Bregman has launched 2 HR and plated 6 RBI in 35 at-bats, but the player to target in this one just might be Michael Brantley who’s gotten out to a scorching hot start. The veteran outfielder is batting .423 against righties with .654 slugging percentage and blistering 1.170 OPS. Kole Calhoun will be a sneaky OF selection in DFS and one to target from a player props perspective as well he’s seen Greinke’s stuff over the course of his career. He’s 11-for-19 against him lifetime with a home run and 2 RBI. Though nine of his hits have failed to go for extra bases, you should still consider backing him on the total bases prop provided he’s not matched up against the two Astros bats mentioned above.
MLB Pick
Fingers crossed a home plate ump with a big strike zone situates himself behind the dish for the finale of this three-game set. Should that be the case, look for both starting pitchers to have a field day. Fire away on the first five under as well as the full game playing to a low scorer. Greinke looked much better in his second turn this past Saturday, while Gallen just did a phenomenal job keeping a potent Dodgers lineup in check his last time out. Maybe hit the first five under harder when you take into account all the injuries Houston’s bullpen is dealing with paired with Arizona’s unit owning a collective 5.05 ERA and 1.37 WHIP through 35.2 total innings of work.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks 3, Astros 2
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