The NL West was expected to be a two-horse between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres heading into the regular season. You won’t see online sportsbooks shedding a tear about the San Francisco Giants currently leading the pack nearly three months into the baseball betting season. Even so, it’s the two aforementioned teams that are still considered the favorites to possess division bragging rights when it’s all said and done. That makes the finale of this three-game set between the hated rivals so important with the Friars owning a slim 4-3 series lead over heading into Monday’s opener. The series closes out with a bang with Trevor Bauer making his third start of the year against the Padres and Joe Musgrove out to secure his first win since May 19; a span of seven starts. He only lasted three innings in a no-decision effort against Los Angeles back on April 25 and will be seeking redemption.
First pitch for the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres is scheduled for Wednesday, June 23, 2021, at 10 p.m. ET from Petco Park. The matchup will air live on ESPN. Bet on MLB odds and player props at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
MLB Betting Lines at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
Winners of four straight series after busting the brooms out on the woeful D’backs in the desert over the weekend, Los Angeles invades Petco sitting 17-games over the breakeven point. The sweep also moved them to 20-15 when playing away from Chavez Ravine. Unfortunately, the overall record has still resulted in a loss upwards of $330 for MLB bettors due to Dave Roberts’ squad consistently going off the board as betting favorites. LA is currently the only team in the league not to have been installed an underdog at least once this season! As for San Diego, it just righted the ship off a head scratching sweep in Colorado by doing the same against the Cincinnati Reds in an extended four-game series. At 10 games over .500 overall, the Padres have also been a detriment to bankrolls -$325. However, Manny Machado and his mates have been at their best in the comforts of their own ballpark where they currently sit 11 games over .500 $75.
The Friars have done an excellent job protecting their turf in this heated rivalry by taking 15 of the last 20 matchups.
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Bauer: The league-wide crackdown on the sticky stuff seemed to have gotten to the right-hander in his prior three starts leading up to Friday night’s outing in Arizona. After conceding 20 hits and 10 ER over his previous 19 innings, Bauer went on to mow the Diamondbacks down to the tune of just three hits and 0 ER while racking up another 8 K over seven solid innings. The effort saw his quality start output move up to 80 percent and his ERA to 2.45. Bauer has zapped the Padres of their power through two 2021 starts in allowing just 8 hits and 3 ER over 12 innings with 16 K and one walk issued. He did however allow a trio of long balls to reach the cheap seats, and is allowing 1.3 home runs per nine innings on the year. If hunting for someone’s player props to target against him, look no further than Manny Machado who’s batting .545 against him over 22 AB with 4 HR, 6 RBI and 5:4 K/BB ratio.
Joe Musgrove: The luster of Musgrove’s no-hitter has been all but wiped away with the right-hander logging two wins and four quality outings in his 12 made starts since. The 6’ 5” righty does however enter this start off successive quality efforts versus the Mets and Reds after holding both offenses to just eight hits and 3 ER through 13.1 combined innings. He’s also logged a 19:3 K/BB ratio over his last three! Though Musgrove looks to be settling back into a groove, he’ll have his work cut out for him against an unforgiving Dodgers offense that leads the league in scoring against right-handed pitching 5.8 RPG. Aiding him in his attempt to silence Mookie Betts and company is this start occurring under the lights when the right-hander has been at his best pitching to a miniscule 1.32 ERA and .171 BAA. He’s only allowed a total of two home runs against bats that are healthy and currently on the Dodgers’ roster.
Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction
Though it was extremely lucky to come out victorious the last time Musgrove toed the home bump against the Reds, San Diego still clocks in 3-1 the last four times the righty strutted his stuff in front of the hometown faithful. As dominant the Dodgers have been to this point of the season, he’s going to have an easier time dealing with LA’s bats due to injuries incurred to Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy. With Fernando Tatis Jr. expected to be reinserted into the Padres’ starting lineup in the series opener, San Diego is simply just working with a fuller deck. With this being the third time their bats will get a chance to stare back at the spider tack-less Bauer, the advantage goes to the home team. So long as the better pen arms are available for the finale, I think the only way to invest in this matchup would be to side with the Padres against a road weary opponent.
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