Last seasons the Houston Astros topped both the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Dodgers in route to their first ever World Series victory. This season, it’s the Dodgers and Sox battling it out in the Fall Classic with the Astros having been sent home by Boston after losing the ALCS. Can the Dodgers build off their near miss a season ago, losing in Game 7 of the World Series or will the Sox be able to capture their fourth World Series title of this century after breaking a curse way back in 2004?
The World Series between the Dodgers and Red Sox opens on Tuesday, October 23, 2018 at 8:09 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The Sox won 17 more games than the Dodgers in the regular season and get home field advantage as a result. They’ll open and close the series at home with the middle three games on the west coast at Dodger Stadium. Each game of this series will be broadcast on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
The Red Sox won 108 games to the Dodgers 91, but the Sox cooled a bit down the stretch. On the other side, the Dodgers had their best record in September, putting up a better final month, record-wise, than Boston.
Both teams fared well in interleague play. Boston was 16-4 while L.A. ended 12-8. The Dodgers can hang in there well in an AL park thanks to a deep roster of talent. They have several players they can use in the DH spot depending on matchup from David Freese to Matt Kemp to many other choices.
On the Sox’s side, they lose a lot when they lose the DH as Martinez has been the primary player in that position.
Martinez isn’t a great glove, but he’s adequate in the outfield, but the Sox already have three every-day outfielders.
These teams didn’t meet in interleague play this year. That should add to the intrigue to this series.
Another level of intrigue is with the managers. Both managers were here last year. Dave Roberts failed to lead his club to a World Series title, losing Game 7, while Alex Cora was at the time the bench coach for the Astros. He’s familiar with a series against the Dodgers given that experience.
Starting Pitching Exploration
Clayton Kershaw got the last three outs of the NLCS but didn’t get into much trouble. The warm-up and in-game work likely counts as a workday, keeping him on track to start Game 1 for the Dodgers. He should be countered by Chris Sale if the latter is healthy enough.
Kershaw and Sale make for an epic Game 1 matchup. Both dealt with some injury issues limiting their innings this year, but each are truly elite arms when healthy.
For the Dodgers, Kershaw was 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 161.1 innings. Those numbers are not quite what we’re used to seeing from Kershaw. Meanwhile, he’s traditionally struggled in the playoffs, but has performed better this year.
As for Sale, he’s struggled a bit with his command in October and hasn’t been going deep in games. He’s pitched better than he did in his post season debut last year though. In the regular season, he’s a lights-out lefty just like Kershaw. In fact, his numbers were better this year, throwing 158 innings, going 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.861 WHIP.
Game 1 is a battle of the aces and a bit of a toss-up. The rest of the rotation leans towards the Dodgers.
David Price, Rick Porcello and Nathan Eovaldi rounds out the postseason rotation for the Sox. Eduardo Rodriguez could be used in place of Eovaldi, but he’s seen spotty work since the regular season and likely would be rusty.
For the Dodgers, after Kershaw, they have Walker Buehler, Rich Hill and Hyun-Jin Ryu.
Ryu had a phenomenal Game 1 of the NLDS but was torched in Game 6 of the NLCS. Like most Dodgers’ starters, he was limited due to injuries. He only made 15 starts, but those were amazing as he pitched to a sub-2 ERA.
Buehler has been very impressive. The rookie finished the year 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA and 0.961 WHIP in 137.1 innings. He’s got amazing stuff and hasn’t been overworked. He’s still fresh which is not common for a rookie this late in October.
The young righty showed his mettle in Game 163 against the Rockies. His postseason numbers aren’t all that good, but he’s kept his cool in some big games as he also started Game 7 of the NLCS, also a win.
Hill wraps up the rotation for the Dodgers and he’s probably the least impressive, but most reliable. He’ll give Roberts four or five good innings before turning the ball over. He’s good for two turns in the rotation.
For the Red Sox three, Porcello and Eovaldi have already been used some in relief and it remains to be seen what impact, if any, that has. Porcello wasn’t particularly great in the regular season or in October. He’s essentially—save the Cy Young Award season—a dependable mid-rotation arm. Eovaldi is much the same, though he’s been better since joining Boston and looked good in his two postseason starts.
Price is probably the most important starter for either team. We know what expect from the rest, but Price is an ace-level talent, but he’s got an ERA over five in a sizable playoff sample size in his career. He was good in his last start, beating the Astros, but is that a sign of things to come of a fluke. He’s certainly good enough for that to be real.
Offensive Comparison
These are two big offenses squaring off on baseball’s biggest stage. The Red Sox led all of baseball in runs scored while the Dodgers led the NL in both runs and home runs, out homering Boston, too.
Both teams are loaded offensively, of course. The Sox have been more consistent in the playoffs, but we saw Yasiel Puig go yard for a three-run shot in Game 7 of the NLCS, energizing the L.A. lineup.
On the Dodgers’ side of things, they’ve been able to advance to the Fall Classic without getting the offensive production that they’re accustom to getting.
Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal, and Kike Hernandez are all big pieces to the lineup, especially against lefties like Sale and Price, but all four have hit below the Mendoza line in October. Manny Machado is hitting well, providing power. Puig, Chris Taylor and Justin Turner have been swinging well. Same can be said about Joc Pederson.
No Dodger is lighting it up here in October, but they’ve gotten enough.
Overall, this is still a deep, deep lineup and someone is likely to break out. The team goes eight deep in players with at least 21 regular season homers, 11 deep on players with at least 250 at bats and a OPS+ of at least 110, and eight deep on players with a .330 OBP or better.
The Dodgers’ offense is likely even deeper than the Sox, but Boston has the better top-end talent.
As good as Machado is, he’s not put up near the season of Mookie Betts or J.D. Martinez. While Betts has struggled so far in the playoffs, he’s a 1.078 OPS bat that can go off at any time. Martinez, with 43 homers and 130 RBIs, is another MVP-level bat. With those two, any offense is good, but Boston also has a slew of others to count on, including Jackie Bradley Jr. who has been swinging well in October.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Dodgers’ bullpen has been great this postseason, throwing 41.1 innings and allowing only six runs. They pitched 4.1 scoreless in the Game 7 win that pushed them to their second consecutive World Series appearance.
The Red Sox’s bullpen has pitched fewer innings this October, but has allowed nearly triple the number of runs, giving up 16 runs—all but one earned. The walk rate has been high for Boston with 25 walks allowed in 37.1 innings.
Craig Kimbrel is a big part of that high walk rate and he’s supposed to be the reliable one. He’s walked six in 6.1 innings and has allowed five runs on six hits, including a homer in his five appearances. He’s managed to go 5-for-5 in saves chances, but it hasn’t been easy.
Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes have both pitched well, but Alex Cora has had to use starters in relief to piece his way through the ALDS and ALCS. Rick Porcello has made two relief appearances while Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi have made one a piece.
In the regular season, the Sox’s bullpen was good, but not great, much like the Dodgers. Both teams had noticeable holes bridging the gap to their elite closers and neither made huge moves to solve the issue.
The Dodgers did, however, add Ryan Madson late in August. Madson’s been good this postseason and has the experience of a back-end arm. Meanwhile, the Dodgers also have Julio Urias, Kenta Maeda and Alex Wood to help bridge the gap to Kenley Jansen in the ninth.
Jansen struggled down the stretch in the regular season, giving up a ton of long balls, but he’s been great in the playoffs.
MLB Pick
This is a good series and probably the on MLB was rooting for throughout the championship series. These are the big market teams with big market money. That money has given both quite a bit of depth which certainly helps.
Offensively, these are two of the best teams. The AL’s offense was better than the NL’s and that leaves the Red Sox with an edge, but the Dodgers have the better pitching. With Jansen seemingly back to form and additional reinforcements in a pen that already put up great numbers, the L.A. bullpen may be the tie breaker here.
The Kimbrel struggling, the Sox may be scrambling a bit. We’ve already seen Alex Cora get creative this postseason and that was in series that weren’t particularly tight.
We’ve been lucky to have great series the last few years, each going the distance. This one could be just as great. Look for a balanced series with a good chance at a Game 7, but in the end, this may just be the year the Dodgers get their next World Series title, after 30-years.
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