If in the NL, the Seattle Mariners would be just a half a game back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot, but in a top-heavy AL, Seattle finds itself not yet eliminated, but also almost certainly out of a the playoff picture as it gets set to kick off a four-game series against the Los Angeles Angels. These divisional foes will battle with little other than a prayer on the line as the Mariners send James Paxton to the hill for the series opener opposite a finally-healthy Matt Shoemaker.
First pitch of the game between the Mariners and Angels is schedule for Thursday, September 13, 2018, at 10:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium. The matchup will be broadcast on MLB Network along with each team’s local television network.
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Odds Analysis
The Marines have eight more wins than the Angels and sit well above-.500, but they’ve managed to greatly outperform their Pythagorean record given a -52 run differential. On the other side, the Angels have a +39 run differential, but are a game under-.500.
Interestingly, their head-to-head numbers further illustrate the differences called out above. The Mariners have won eight of their 15 games, but the Angels have outscored the Mariners by 16 runs.
Seattle’s done a better job in close games and are 35-18 in one-run games, but 12-22 in blowouts. The Angels are 21-14 in one run games. It’s still a good record, but not as impressive as the Mariners’ in such situations.
The biggest reason for the Mariners’ success in one-run games is closer Edwin Diaz. Diaz has been exceptional at converting saves. He’s got a MLB best 54 saves and has a 1.84 ERA and 0.761 WHIP, striking out 118 in 68.1 innings while allowing only four homers and 16 walks. While other teams are using star relievers in more pressure situations and extended outings, the Mariners have kept Diaz in the ninth, throwing 68.1 innings in 68 games. Meanwhile, Alex Colome has been a good set up option and Chasen Bradford and James Pazos have held the opposition and allowed the team to score, combining with Colome for 12 wins out of the pen.
The mop up arms and multi-inning options are suspect out of the Mariners’ pen, but the options in event of a close game, give Seattle a chance to win and basically assures it if the ball gets to Diaz.
As for the Angels’ their pen has been solid. Blake Parker has done an admirable job in the ninth for the Angels, but he’s no Diaz. Meanwhile, Jim Johnson started in a bullpen game on Tuesday which hinders the back end a bit though with expanded roster, Los Angeles still has plenty of arms.
Probable Pitchers
While the Mariners haven’t officially announced their rotation for the series in Anaheim, Thursday’s series opener would be James Paxton’s turn in the rotation.
The oft-injured 29-year old southpaw has stayed mostly healthy this year, starting a career high 26 games and throwing a career high 150.1 innings. As a result of the heavy workload compared to years past, it stands to reason that Paxton could be getting tired.
Fatigue would, of course, help explain his lackluster September. So far this month, he’s made two starts, going 11 innings and allowing seven runs, all earned, on seven hits, including three home runs. He has, however, stills struck out 18 batters. His two starts also came against tough opponents in the Oakland A’s and New York Yankees.
Overall, Paxton is the ace of the Seattle staff. He is 11-6 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.104 WHIP. He’s pitched to a 3.25 FIP with a 11.6 strikeout per nine inning rate and very strong 4.62 K:BB ratio. On the downside, he has allowed 21 home runs, more than double his career high form any other year.
Paxton has only played the Angels once this year and it didn’t go well. He didn’t make it out of the first innings, allowing three runs before being removed with an injury that sent him to the DL.
On the other side of this matchup, the Angels have also yet to announce their rotation for the series, but Thursday’s starter could be Matt Shoemaker in just his third start back since March 31.
Injuries have plagued the Angels rotation this year with Shoemaker one of the biggest victims. He’s made now just three starts all year after only getting 14 starts due to injury last year. With Shohei Ohtani going down—at least as a pitcher—again, Shoemaker’s recent return was huge.
The 31-year old right-hander was a late bloomer and has just 97 big league appearances, including 89 starts. In that time, however, he’s pitched to a solid 3.86 ERA and 1.201 WHIP and has proven himself as a solid mid-rotation arm.
In his two starts back from the DL this year, he’s thrown five innings in each and went five scoreless in his return before allowing three over five innings to the White Sox, getting the win. He’s not an ace, but he’s a reliable arm that’s thrown reasonably well since his return, albeit in a small sample size. He only threw 74 pitches in his last game so his pitch count figures to be limited a bit, but he’ll have more pitches to work with on Thursday.
Live Betting
Offensively, the Angels have outscored the Mariners by 67 runs this year and have a better OBP and slugging percentage though Seattle does have a higher average.
The Mariners put the ball in play a bit more, but the Angels have had the better production all year and the gap is even more pronounced in the second half where the Mariners have scored the fewest runs in the AL while posting a .687 OPS.
Over the last 30-days, Seattle’s Ryon Healy is hitting .309 and Mitch Haniger has a .290/.361/.533 slash line, but that’s really all that’s going well. Mike Zunino has 28 strikeouts and a .147 average in 21 games. Kyle Seager has a .143 average over the last 30-days while Dee Gordon has a .250 OBP, Denard Span is getting on base less than 30-percent of the time, and even Nelson Cruz hasn’t done much.
As a whole, the Mariners’ team has been crashing back to earth the last couple months. This is a team that vastly overachieved for months, but has seen a bit of a statistical correction lately.
As for the Angels, their offense is hardly the same as it was earlier this year. Martin Maldonado and Ian Kinsler were dealt. Albert Pujols and Zack Cozart are injured.
Still, Mike Trout remains a beast. He’s got a .317/.464/.619 slash line with 33 home runs, 22 steals and a 194 OPS+. He has an 8.6 rWAR and leads the Majors in walks, OBP and OPS.
He gets pitched around a lot, but he’s not alone in the order. With Ohtani’s injury, he’s a full-time bat the rest of the year and has been dangerous with a .294 average, 19 homers and 54 RBIs in 86 games. Justin Upton is healthy now, too, and has 26 dingers. This team can hit the ball out of the yard. All three of the aforementioned players can also take a walk.
Around those three, Andrelton Simmons is an above average bat and so is Kole Calhoun despite his .689 overall OPS. He was truly terrible early in the year, but has an .880 OPS since the break.
In a more recent sample size, he’s cooled a bit, but still has a .374 OBP in his last 25 games while Ohtani’s been truly raking, Trout’s been, well, Trout, and David Fletcher has quietly been providing good, quality at-bats.
MLB Pick
The Mariners’ biggest strength is its ability to win the close game, particularly the one-run affair. Look for the Angels to get a bit bigger lead than that and carry it to a victory behind Shoemaker.
The Angels’ starter is a very good pitcher and is well rested given his injury. Look for five or six solid innings before the bullpen takes over and does well enough to close out the game, keeping the ball out of the hands of Diaz and Colome in the back end for Seattle.
On the other side, Paxton has beatable the last couple games. While he’s still getting the swing and miss, he’s leaving more pitches out over the plate and has allowed a few homers. Trout, Upton, Calhoun, Ohtani and even Simmons can hit it out.
Look for a couple dingers from the Angels as Trout carries the team on his shoulders to a win over the Mariners as Seattle continues to fall. After all, the team really hasn’t been that good for a while now.
MLB Betting Odds: Angels 6, Mariners 4
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