The first of what could prove to be an enormous series for the Milwaukee Brewers opens up on Thursday night when Craig Counsell’s squad travels to the North Side to run up against the NL Central leading Chicago Cubs. This will be the Brew Crew’s second visit to Wrigley Field after dropping two of three to open up both club’s respective 2020 campaign. With just one win in its previous four games and already four-games back in the standings, Milwaukee is going to need a solid effort from Brett Anderson to kick off the first of a prolonged 10-game road trip that ends in Pittsburgh on August 23. Getting the starting nod for the home team will be Yu Darvish whose only defeat came against these same Brewers in his season debut back on July 25. Though the Wrigley stands won’t be filled, this series will still have the feel of a playoff atmosphere with both squads not the biggest fans of one another. Look for the Cubs to be installed decided home chalk at online sportsbooks with the total lined in the 8-9 run range dependent upon which way the winds blowing.
First pitch for the game between the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs is scheduled for Thursday, August 13, 2020, at 7:15 p.m. ET from Wrigley Field. The matchup will be shown live on FOX. You can bet on MLB Odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
Losers in eight of 14 games, Milwaukee has cost MLB bettors upwards of $280 with a bulk of that deficit surprisingly being logged at home where it’s managed just one win through six tries -$239. It has however done its best work on the road where wins have been logged on five of eight occasions for a $174 return on investment. The under has cashed at a 7-6-1 clip in its 14 played games. At 10-3 overall going into Tuesday’s series opener in Cleveland, Chicago owns the highest winning percentage in the National League .769. It’s equated to $600 worth of betting profit with the club going a dominant 7-1 in front of the rooftop faithful 547. Under bettors cashed tickets in five of their eight played home games with an average of 6.8 runs scored.
Probable Pitchers
Brett Anderson: Anderson has made two starts for the Brew Crew and neither has been of quality. He went three innings and allowed a pair of ER and five hits to the White Sox in his season debut, and followed it up with 3.2 innings of 2 ER ball and four hits 1 HR versus the Reds. His K/BB ratio clocks in at 4:2 and Milwaukee is yet to win a game with him on the bump. Chicago has been below average versus lefties on the young season No. 18, which bodes well for Anderson who checks in 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA through three career starts. However, the Cubs batted a robust .528 against him in those outings but failed to turn a bulk of those hits into runs.
Yu Darvish: The Japanese import enters his fourth start of the 2020 MLB betting season off successive quality starts against the Pirates and Royals. He dominated a Buccos team that can’t hit right-handed pitching to save its life by shutting them out through six innings and fanning seven. That was followed up by an even more impressive outing against a Kansas City team ranked No. 9 in the league against righties; he held them to just five hits and 1 ER through seven innings but only registered 4 K. So far, Yu’s control has been excellent evidenced by his 1.06 BB/9 rate. He’s also limited the opposition to a .210 batting average and tallied 16 strikeouts. He did however have issues with Milwaukee back on July 25 when he served up six hits and 3 ER through just four innings to get saddled with his only loss. Lifetime versus Milwaukee, the righty checks in 1-2 with a 2.32 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .316 BAA.
Player Prop Targets
Darvish has impressed at the outset of 2020. So much so, that I’m entertaining the thought of laying the heavy chalk with him in this matchup after fading him and cashing a ticket the first time he threw at the Brewers a few weeks back. But if laying the heavy chalk is something your bankroll management prevents you from doing, you might want to look into betting Yu’s K prop instead. He tallied five through just four innings against Milwaukee back on July 25, and has gone at least six innings in his two starts since. If Justin Smoak’s in the lineup, you can figure two Ks right there with Darvish fanning him nine times in 24 career at-bats. Orlando Arcia and Avisail Garcia have also struck out in more than half their at-bats against Darvish lifetime! Oddsmakers might set the number to beat around 7-8, but that still looks low on my estimation with Milwaukee batting .212 against right-handers and striking out 110 times.
MLB Pick
Call it a revenge game! Darvish has looked the part of the staff’s ace over his last two turns, and you darn well know he’ll be gunning for the win after Milwaukee hung an “L” on him the first time around. Even if fully stretched out and healthy, Brett Anderson isn’t of starting caliber. Counsell is forced to go to his pen early every time he takes to the bump, and tonight should be no different. The Cubs have come out on the right side of the scoreboard the four prior times the offense stared back at a lefty, and they got by far the better of the two starting arms in their corner tonight. Look for Chicago to set the tone of the series early by putting forth a commanding effort that covers the run-line and allows Yu to get his revenge. Let’s just hope the Cubs miserable bullpen doesn’t muck it all up!
MLB Odds: Cubs 8, Brewers 4
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