Who would’ve thought that Taylor Rogers blowing the save against the Pittsburgh Pirates would set the groundwork for a shocking turn of events that saw the Minnesota Twins get the brooms busted out on them over the weekend by the Kansas City Royals? If not for a six run explosion versus the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday, the Milwaukee Brewers would’ve entered Monday’s series opener losers of three in a row themselves. The former division rivals will put a bow on their first series run-in of the season with Kenta Maeda set to square off against Eric Lauer. The Brew Crew has held the upper hand in the recent rivalry by taking seven of the last 10 meetings, but Craig Counsell’s squad is likely to be installed midrange home dogs in this spot with the total lined in the 9-10 run range.
First pitch for the game between the Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers is scheduled for Wednesday, August 12, 2020, at 7:10 p.m. ET from Miller Park. The matchup will be shown live on FS1. You can bet on MLB Odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
Minnesota has been exceptional in the comforts of its own ball park in winning seven of its eight played games for a $588 return on investment. It’s been a much different story on the road however where Max Kepler and company stand 3-5 and down $438 for MLB bettors. Still, only the Dodgers and Yankees have shorter odds than the Twins to win the World Series +700, so oddsmakers continue to be of the belief that Rocco Baldelli’s team is legit. The season as a whole hasn’t gotten out to the greatest of starts for Christian Yelich and his mates with the club managing just six wins through its first 13 played games -$179. It’s also been a horror show at home where the team has logged just one win through its first five tries -$353. If still a believer in the Brewers making a World Series run, you might want to take a stab with them right now with their odds to win it all up to 35-1 after initially hitting the betting board at 22-1.
Probable Pitchers
Kenta Maeda: Through three starts, Maeda has proven to be a fantastic offseason acquisition for the Twinkies. Through 17 innings of work, the right-hander has only conceded eight hits 2 HR and 5 ER while striking out 16 while only issuing three free passes. His 2.65 ERA and 0.65 WHIP is tops within the starting rotation, and opposing batters are only squaring him up for a .136 batting average against. The only problem area has been longevity as he’s yet to pitch past the sixth inning in any of his three made starts. Lifetime against Milwaukee, Maeda checks in 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA and .260 BAA over five starts and 27 innings of work.
Eric Lauer: If things don’t go right for the left-hander in this spot, he’ll likely return to the bullpen with Corbin Burnes fully stretched out and ready to retake his spot in the starting rotation. Lauer came out of the pen to make a spot start against the Cincinnati Reds on Friday, but the effort wasn’t one the youngster would like to remember. He was shelled for five hits 1 HR and 6 ER while issuing three free passes and only striking out a pair. He’ll have the early edge versus the Twins who’ve never seen his stuff before, but things could get ugly real quick as readily able Minnesota has proven it can destroy left-handed pitching when given the chance.
Player Prop Targets
Nelson Cruz’s boom stick has gone silent since the first week of the season, but that could dramatically change over the course of this series. After squaring off against righties Adrian Houser and Josh Lindblom in the first two games, the veteran right-handed power bat is going to be foaming at the mouth to get a piece of a lefty. To date, he’s batting .417 with a 1.417 OPS in 12 at-bats against southpaws, so I’d make it a point to hit his home run or total bases prop should they surface before first pitch. As for Milwaukee, a player to target for prop betting purposes is Christian Yelich. Though the former NL MVP has gotten out to a slow start, he’s really picked things up of late in collecting six hits 3 HR and 5 RBI in his last six games. On top of that, he’s 4-for-9 lifetime versus Maeda and only struck out once in those plate appearances.
MLB Pick
There’s something about the Brewers that isn’t vibing with me right now. The team seemed to lose its swagger once Lorenzo Cain decided to opt out of the season, and the injury to Ryan Braun hasn’t helped matters. The pitching staff has been decent, but the offense has left much to be desired. It’s ranked No. 16 in the league with runners in scoring position, and rates out in the bottom third of the league in most pertinent offensive categories. The complete opposite is true of the Twins who rank No. 1 in the league with a .356 batting average and 1.097 OPS with runners in scoring position, and its launched the fourth most home runs in the game 25. Minnesota owns the starting pitching advantage as well with Maeda over Lauer. Should Minnesota’s top arms be available to pitch out of the bullpen in this finale, you might want to think about backing up the Brinks truck and hitting the visiting Twins on both the moneyline and run-line for the first five innings as well as the full game.
MLB Odds: Twins 10, Brewers 4
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