It’s hard to think of baseball right now with other leagues in full swing and fans getting ready to remember what March Madness feels like. But with the boys of summer getting amped up for their season it’s time to look at the futures markets for MLB’s biggest awards. Cleveland’s Shane Bieber was a runaway winner of the AL Cy Young Award in last year’s abbreviated season. Can he duplicate that performance over a full slate of games? There is some stiff competition at the top of the odds board with Gerrit Cole and Lucas Giolito rounding out the three favorites. There is a steep drop after that but there are plenty of worthy candidates. Let’s dive into some quick analysis on the favorites and some hurlers that have value in the Cy Young futures market. Visit BookMaker.eu for a complete list of odds and to make your wager.
2021 AL Cy Young Award Odds at BookMaker.eu
Gerrit Cole +400
Lucas Giolito +465
Shane Bieber +525
Tyler Glasnow +1500
Chris Sale +2000
Hyun-Jin Ryu +2000
Corey Kluber +2300
Jose Berrios +2300
Lance Lynn +2500
Kenta Maeda +2500
Dallas Keuchel +3000
Jesus Luzardo +3000
Marco Gonzales +3000
Zack Greinke +3000
Andrew Heaney +3800
Eduardo Rodriguez +3800
Frankie Montas +3800
Nate Pearson +3800
Framber Valdez +4000
2021 AL Cy Young Favorites
The 2020 MLB season was different than what anybody had seen or experienced. The 60-game slate limited the number of starts for pitchers and decreased opportunities for relievers to earn enough valuable stats to be considered. There was no doubt about the winner in the American League however. Indians righty Shane Bieber was magnificent from the get go capturing the triple-crown with an 8-1 record, 1.63 ERA and 122 strikeouts in 77.1 innings.
That alone should put the former UCSB Gaucho on the top of the odds board heading into 2021. But there is another guy lurking who can be just as dominant and has a few more solid years under his belt. Gerrit Cole went 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA in 12 starts in his first season in Yankee pinstripes. He wasn’t fazed by playing in the Big Apple probably because he didn’t have to face the merciless fans. Even if fans were in attendance it’s not like Cole gave them anything to complain about. It’s hard to say any baseball player is worth the kind of money Cole is making, but he’s close to it.
Cole emerged as the favorite with Bieber a surprising third on the list. The guy in between is more than capable, but I have a hard time thinking Lucas Giolito is more of a favorite than the previous year’s winner. Giolito put together another solid season for the White Sox going 4-3 with a 3.48 ERA. Those aren’t Cy Young numbers even in an abbreviated season, but Giolito can bring it and he should win a lot of games in 2021 with a potent lineup behind him.
2021 AL Cy Young Longshots
There is a significant drop in odds after the top three, but that doesn’t mean the quality has diminished. The Tampa Bay Rays gutted their pitching staff getting rid of Charlie Morton and Blake Snell leaving Tyler Glasnow as the team’s ace. While I like Glasnow’s stuff and the Rays’ approach, I don’t see him getting enough innings or wins based on how Kevin Cash handles his staff.
One interesting name in the group is Chris Sale. His arm gave out last season and required Tommy John surgery. He’ll start the season on the DL and may not even pitch so don’t waste your time or money on him. One pitcher that deserves a close look among the players at this level is Hyun-Jin Ryu. He won 14 games with a 2.32 ERA for the Dodgers in 2019 and had a solid 2020 campaign with the Jays going 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA over 67 innings. He’s been one of the most reliable starters the last few seasons finishing among the top-3 in voting the last two years.
There are a few things that need to go right in order to win the award. First, a pitcher has to compete in a number of games. For a starter over a 162-game schedule that means making upwards of 30 starts. And of course the numbers have to follow. Cole has the stuff and the lineup around him to win a lot of games. It’s hard to imagine Bieber putting up the same stats over a longer campaign and Giolito will benefit from a powerful lineup. This market has plenty of value further down the odds board and I can see a guy like Shohei Ohtani or Zach Plesac doing enough to claim the honor.
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