The American League’s Final Four for the 2020 Division Round has been decided. After busting the brooms out on the AL East rival Toronto Blue Jays, the Tampa Bay Rays will attempt to punch their ticket to the ALCS by way of disposing of another division rival in the form of the New York Yankees. Though Kevin Cash’s squad remains the top seed in the AL, they currently find themselves installed short +109 dogs on the MLB odds to come out of the series which will be played at Petco Park; home of the San Diego Padres. The other leg of the ALDS set to go in Dodger Stadium pits another pair of division rivals up against one another with the Oakland A’s set to square off against the team everybody loves to hate; the Houston Astros. The former battled back from a 0-1 series deficit and trailed 4-0 in the series decider but found a way to get the job done against the Chicago White Sox, while the latter took advantage of the Minnesota Twins futility in the postseason to get back to the division round after a year hiatus. The Yankees are the current +163 chalk to win the American League followed by the Rays +210, A’s +420 and Astros +440.
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A’s -138 vs. Astros +118
The Astros’ injuries didn’t catch up to them in the Wild Card round mostly due to the Twins simply being unable to manufacture any runs or come up clutch when the opportunity presented itself. Because of it, Houston is the only team to advance to the division round boasting a sub .500 regular season record. That right there should be more than enough to keep MLB bettors away from them over the course of this series. However, Dusty Baker’s troops played with a ton of moxie that allowed them to advance by cashing in as decided dogs in Minnesota’s ball park. Even so, Baker is going to be up against it over the course of this five game series if he can’t get some length from his starting rotation. Zack Greinke and Framber Valdez combined to throw nine innings in the series opening win, and he then got 4.1 innings from Jose Urquidy before the bullpen closed Game 2 out.
The betting markets have backed the A’s from the outset on the series odds. Oakland hit the board as -121 chalk to advance, but can now be had at -138 and the impost might not be done climbing just yet. Bob Melvin’s squad showed a ton of heart battling back from a 4-0 deficit in Game 3 to win the series against Chicago. Though Matt Chapman is done for the year, guys like Matt Olson, Marcus Semien, Robbie Grossman and Ramon Laureano are nothing if not gamers. Oakland took seven of the 10 regular season meetings from the Astros with the under cashing in seven times. With Liam Hendriks at the back end of the better overall bullpen by far, the A’s near 58 percent implied improbability of winning this series looks to be a bit short. So long as the pitching staff prevents George Springer and company from going HAM, they should punch a ticket to the ALCS for the first time since 2006.
Rays +109 vs. Yankees -129
Since becoming a member of the league back in 1998, the Rays have qualified for the playoffs a total of six times with one World Series loss to show for their effort. During that stretch, they never once opposed the hated Yankees. Their first-ever postseason showdown against the Bronx Bombers should be extremely competitive as readily able the team handled New York over the course of the regular season. Tampa Bay dominated in winning eight of the 10 overall meetings with the O/U splitting and an average of 8.1 runs scored per game. The Rays pitching staff was nothing if not excellent in holding the Yankees to an average of just 3.4 runs per game while averaging 4.7 per game themselves.
Even so, The Yankees hit the betting board as decided -148 favorites to win this series. The betting markets scoffed at their near 60 percent implied probability of winning and lowered the series odds immediately. As it stands, New York is down to a -129 favorite with the come back on Tampa Bay clocking in at +109. These teams don’t like one another and haven’t been shy in letting the other know. Tension should be at an all-time high throughout, but it will all come down to the Rays excelled pitching staff combating the big bats of Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Luke Voit and a bevy of others. A majority of Tampa’s regular season wins over New York occurred with the Yankees not at full strength. That’s not the case this time around. I personally don’t think there’s a pitching staff in the AL that can keep NY’s bats in check, so I’d be pretty surprised to not see Aaron Boone’s squad advancing to the ALCS.
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