With Washington Nationals and New York Mets were the two favorites in the NL East before the season started, but both haven’t lived up to expectations, with the Nationals arguably the biggest disappointment in baseball. With Washington now joining the ranks of the sellers with a couple August trades, these two teams will be battling for little more than pride when the face off on Saturday in the middle game of three. Gio Gonzalez and Zack Wheeler should be in line to make the start for their respective team.
First pitch of the game between the Nationals and Mets is scheduled for Saturday, August 25, 2018, at 4:05 p.m. ET at Citi Field. The matchup will be televised on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
Don’t look now, but the Mets have scored more runs than any team in August, plating 123 as of Thursday, one more than the Red Sox.
While New York has played more games than anyone else in August, too, it’s still a stark change for a team that otherwise ranks in the bottom third of baseball in runs scored over the course of the entire season.
With the improved offense, it’s no wonder the Mets have been playing better baseball recently. They’re 12-7 in their last 19 games and while it’s unlikely to last, one cannot ignore that they seem to be playing much better ball.
Back to the offense, the Mets are getting good results from Jeff McNeil who’s taken over at second while Austin Jackson and Jose Bautista have come off the scrap heap to provide quality at bats—at least more often than not.
Looking at the lineup, it still looks like a patchwork with Wilmer Flores batting third, Amed Rosario at the top of the order despite a .288 OBP and Jose Reyes getting nearly every day at bats while batting just over the Mendoza Line with no pop.
As bad as the order looks, particularly with Brandon Nimmo joining Yoenis Cespedes on the DL, the lineup is producing right now.
Washington’s offense has been a bit better over the last month, too. Bryce Harper has picked up his game since the All-Star break and putting up an OPS north of 1.000 as has Ryan Zimmerman. Several other players are swinging well, too, and the order is pretty deep even after dealing Daniel Murphy and Matt Adams to the NL Central.
The lineup is still stacked. With Harper and Zimmerman producing alongside Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, and Adam Eaton, there’s no reason this team shouldn’t be better than it is.
Despite the improved offense, the Nationals haven’t been able to get on any kind of roll. They’re struggling of late, going 6-9 in their last 15 games.
Probable Pitchers
We won’t be getting a Jacob deGrom versus Max Scherzer matchup which would be the ideal pitching matchup for a nationally televised game, but the showdown between Gio Gonzalez and Zack Wheeler is interesting in its own right.
Both Gonzalez and Wheeler were high upside young arms at one point in their careers. Gonzalez was acquired from Oakland for that very reason and proceeded to have a Cy Young caliber year in his first season with Washington. Since then, things have been up-and-down some with this season being mostly down, particularly of late.
Meanwhile, Wheeler was the key cog in the Carlos Beltran deal back in the day and has battled injuries trying to establish himself in the Majors. He’s finally put those injuries behind him and has emerged the last couple months as a legitimate Major League starter. Essentially, we have two pitchers who—of late—have been heading in opposite directions.
For Gonzalez, the veteran southpaw is just 7-10 with a 4.51 ERA and a1.549 WHIP. The WHIP is the worst he’s posted since his rookie season and a result of higher rates in both hits and walks allowed. The command has been an issue, particularly in his last several starts. In fact, he’s struggled to go five innings in three of his last four starts and most recently just allowed eight runs in just 4.2 innings against the Marlins.
On a much more positive side, Wheeler comes into this game having going 6-0 in his last seven starts. He allowed one run in seven innings against the Giants in his last start and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his last six starts.
His ERA has been steadily dropping over the last few month and he’s now 8-6 with a 3.63 ERA in 146.1 innings of work. The innings total is getting high for a guy that’s spent much of the last several years on the DL. That could lead to some fatigue, but he hasn’t shown signs of that yet. In fact he’s seemingly just getting better.
Perhaps just as telling as his low ERA is his 3.29 FIP. The ERA isn’t lucky. He’s pitching very well, allowing just 47 walks to his 146 strikeouts and giving up only a dozen homers. He’s showing much better control both inside and around the strike zone.
Live Betting
In relief of Wheeler and Gonzalez, both teams have some question marks. Washington’s pitching has struggled some this month while the Mets have done pretty well, but overall neither team has a lot of depth in their relief corp.
On the season, the Nationals’ bullpen ranks well ahead of the Mets in bullpen ERA at 3.90 to 4.68, but Washington’s pen isn’t what it used to be. Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson are injured while Brandon Kintzler and Shawn Kelley were dealt away.
With so many late inning arms removed from the mix, Kelvin Herrera is left as the closer. He was great earlier this year in Kansas City, but has a 4.50 ERA in 18 innings for the Nationals. Along with him, the Nationals have Greg Holland who has thrown well since he was picked off the scrap heap from St. Louis, but it’s only been 6.1 innings and he struggled so much for the Cardinals all year. It’s hard to fully trust him, yet.
As for the rest of the Washington arms, Matt Grace, Justin Miller, Wander Suero and Tim Collins all have solid overall numbers in varying sample sizes, but none have the late game pedigree of the guys no longer on the active roster.
The Mets also dealt away a late inning arm at the deadline, sending Jeurys Familia to Oakland. That move has left Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman as the primary bullpen arms, aside from lefty specialist Jerry Blevins. Both Lugo and Gsellman can go multiple innings if needed as former starters. They’ve both found a home in relief and have pitched well, getting pushed back to the latter innings now that Familia is gone. Gsellman has been getting the save chances and has seven saves now to go along with his six wins.
MLB Pick
The names on the roster should give the Nationals the edge in this game—and the series—but the Mets are playing at home and on Saturday have a better pitcher on the mound, at least at the moment.
While Gonzalez has had some bright spots in his season and his career, he’s not throwing the ball particularly well right now. Meanwhile, Wheeler is.
Look for Wheeler to record a quality start on Saturday, handing the ball over to Lugo and Gsellman to close out the game. While the Mets’ bullpen isn’t stacked, those two should be able to wrap up a win for New York, particularly given their offense is playing well right now.
Speaking of that offense, look for it to hang a few runs on Gonzalez and knock him out of the game before he’s able to finish the sixth. From there, the Nationals’ bullpen will a bit exposed, having to cover more than three innings which might be tough even with Herrera back.
MLB Odds: Mets 6, Nationals 4
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