The Cleveland Indians will host what barely qualifies as a Major League team in the Baltimore Orioles in the middle game of a weekend series on Saturday with Fox Sports 1 broadcasting what should be an easy Tribe win. The one ray of hope for Baltimore may be the Indians’ starter, Adam Plutko, who will be called upon to make the start in place of the injured Trevor Bauer. The O’s starter, however, remains a mystery and the talent gap between the Indians and Orioles remains as wide as ever.
First pitch of the game between the Orioles and Indians is scheduled for Saturday, August 18, 2018, at 4:05 p.m. ET at Progressive Field. The matchup will be televised on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
The Indians are in a terrible division and should be a better team—record wise—than they are, but the Tribe has finally started getting hot. Cleveland is 9-2 in their last 11 games and playing some of their best baseball right now.
Offensively, the Indians have scored the third most runs in baseball behind Boston and New York and have a .773 OPS. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are at the center of that, but Yonder Alonso has been serviceable and Michael Brantley was an All-Star this year and is hitting .300 with a .354 OBP.
The Indians are without Edwin Encarnacion who is on the shelf and have some offensive holes in the outfield where the .199 hitting Brandon Guyer and the .571 OPS of Greg Allen are still getting at-bats, but the top-heavy lineup is still producing solid results.
On the Orioles’ side of this matchup, Adam Jones will be out for this series with the Orioles as he has been put on the bereavement list by Baltimore. Meanwhile, Mark Trumbo is hobbling through knee pain. Those are really the team’s two most reliable bats now that Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop are playing in the National League.
That said, the Orioles’ offense has actually been better in the second half since Machado moved to Los Angeles and the team has scored 128 runs since the break, three more than the Indians in one less game. They’ve also hit 40 homers since the break, second only to Texas.
Chris Davis has been a bit better in the second half, but has still been a below replacement level player with a .162 average and .554 OPS.
The real bump in production has come from Tim Beckham who is having his second straight hot August and Renato Nunez who has swung well with the O’s. Jonathan Villar and Cedric Mullins also given the O’s more athleticism.
Probable Pitchers
Adam Plutko is no Trevor Bauer, but against the Orioles, he doesn’t have to be.
The 26-year old right-hander was the first to get a chance in the rotation after Josh Tomlin was removed and went 4-2 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in 41.2 innings. Those numbers aren’t too bad, but he had a 5.99 FIP in that small sample size due in large part to 11 homers allowed. That’s nearly two and a half per nine innings.
That home run rate—among other things—cost him the job that eventually went to prospect Shane Bieber who has pitched much better than Plutko in his 11 starts.
Plutko, meanwhile, went back to the minors, but gets another chance with the Bauer injury. He comes back having, again, thrived in the minors. In 14 starts at Triple-A Columbus this year, Plutko is 7-3 with a 1.70 ERA and 0.744 WHIP. He’s allowed just five homers in 84.2 innings and walked only 16 while striking out 81. Those are excellent rates, but can they translate to the Majors with a different ball and better opponents? Though, to be fair, the Orioles lineup isn’t much better than one you’d see in the International League.
The Orioles haven’t announced their starters for this series in Baltimore and the two days off this week gives Buck Showalter some flexibility.
Alex Cobb could pitch on Friday on normal rest of Saturday on five days’ rest. If not him, then Saturday’s start will likely go to David Hess or Yefry Ramirez, two fringe Major League arms.
Cobb got off to a terrible start to the year, signing late in the offseason and missing Spring Training, he rushed to the big club and wasn’t ready. Overall, he’s 3-15 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in 123.2 innings spread over 22 games.
More recently, however, he’s thrown four straight quality starts, has allowed just three earned runs in 20 innings in August and has allowed just nine earned in 37.1 innings over his last six games. That’s a 2.17 ERA. If he starts, he may actually give the team a chance to win. Still, the Orioles are 1-8 in this last nine starts and 1-5 in those six starts where his ERA in 2.17. He’s 1-4 in those starts.
As for Hess or Ramirez, chances for an Orioles’ win are even less. Hess is 2-6 with a 6.25 ERA in 13 games while Ramirez is 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA in nine games. Both were fringe prospects, more likely to end up in the pen than the rotation.
Live Betting
The Orioles broke their team down at the non-waiver trade deadline, including sending Zach Britton to the Yankees and Brad Brach to Atlanta. Without those two, Mychal Givens has become the team closer.
Givens hasn’t had a good year, but has a good arm. Still, he’s got a 1.407 WHIP and 4.73 ERA with a 0-6 record. His FIP, however, is 2.87 thanks to a good strikeout rate and low homer rate. He, like the rest of the bullpen, struggles with walks. Paul Fry’s been a good surprise, but the rest of the pen is a project with young guys like Cody Carroll, Evan Phillips and Tanner Scott gaining big league exposure.
The Indians’ bullpen, meanwhile, is also much different than it was before the deadline, but in a good way.
Brad Hand has helped solidify the pen as has the return of Andrew Miller. The two lefties—along with Cody Allen—give the Indians three legitimate closers.
MLB Pick
Any team can beat any other team in the Majors on any day. That’s the nature of Major League Baseball, but given how bad the Orioles have been all season long, it’s highly unlikely Baltimore gets the win on Saturday.
The Orioles are historically bad. They can’t pitch. The bullpen is flawed. The defense is poor. And, the offense cannot score consistently and that’s with Adam Jones.
Plutko is the weak link in the rotation, but the Orioles struggle with no-name pitchers. Of course, they struggle with all pitchers.
Look for Plutko to give the Tribe five or six solid frames and turn the ball over to a newly rejuvenated bullpen to close out the game.
Look for Jose Ramirez to get a big hit like he seemingly always does, Francisco Lindor to stand out and the Indians to tally a number of runs against whichever arm starts for the Birds. From there, they’ll continue to tack on runs against a diminished bullpen on their way to a run-away victory.
MLB Odds: Indians 9, Orioles 4
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