After both losing on Monday in their respective Game 163 matchups, the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies are set to square off in another winner-take-all matchup. With a division series spot on the line, these two teams are set for an epic showdown their seasons on the line. After losing out on their divisions a day ago, one team will see its 2018 season end on Tuesday night. Can the Cubs take advantage of homefield advantage after losing at home in Game 163 or will the Rockies be victorious?
First pitch for the game between the Rockies and Cubs is scheduled for Tuesday, October 2, 2018, at 8 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Cubs won’t have to travel for the Wild Card game, hosting the Rockies after falling at home to the Brewers in the final game of the year.
Speaking of that game, Chicago has a strong offense and a deep lineup, but they’re going into this game licking their wounds after managing just a single run and three hits—the last one coming with two outs in the ninth—in Game 163. Their lone run coming off Anthony Rizzo’s 25th home run of the season. The Cubs were unable to get anything else going against Jhoulys Chacin and four relievers. They’ll need more offense in this wild card contest.
The Cubs have scored 761 runs this season and boast a .259 average and .334 OBP. While those numbers are excellent, there are only three teams in the NL to outscore the Cubs on the year and one of them was the Rockies. Chicago has the edge in average and OBP by the numbers, but only four teams in the league hit fewer home runs.
The Rockies have scored 13 more runs and hit 43 more home runs than the Cubs. The only two runs they scored in their Game 163 were off home runs from Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. That’s about par for the course. Those two have had monster seasons. They’ve combined for 75 home runs and 218 RBIs. They’re the central focus of the lineup, though the Rockies always have a good offensive club and have Charlie Blackmon and D.J. LeMahieu to set the table ahead of them along with David Dahl and Carlos Gonzalez as quality bats behind them.
For the Cubs, the lineup is deeper although less powerful. The Rockies have seven players with at least 15 homers, the Cubs have only four. The Cubs, however, have 11 players with an OBP of at least .324 and at least 140 plate appearances. The Rockies have seven.
Probable Pitchers
With both teams needing to play the season out and having a game 163, neither will be able to line up their rotation perfectly for this game, leaving us with an interesting pitching matchup featuring Jon Lester and, likely, Kyle Freeland.
The Cubs seem confident that’ll use Lester while Freeland is more of a speculation than anything. The Rockies could also go with Antonio Senzatela. Senzatela would be on regular rest but has had issues with his command in his last couple starts. Freeland, on the other hand, is the team’s ace. He had a great year but would be pitching on short rest.
If it is Freeland, and he’s on his game, the Rockies would be in a good position. The 25-year old southpaw went 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA though his WHIP was 1.245 and his FIP was 3.67. He’s not a big strikeout guy, but keeps the ball on the ground which plays well at Coors Field.
Interestingly, Freeland pitched better at Coors than on the road, though with a 3.23 road ERA, he’s still managed to throw well regardless of venue. In his only start against the Cubs this year, he went seven innings and allowed three runs on six hits and one walk.
Lester is a more experienced arm than Freeland and has the postseason experience—and success—that he can lean on. That should allow him to be calmer and better able to execute.
Also a southpaw, at 34-years old he’s starting see diminishing stuff, but he’s found a way to still have success. He ended the year 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.310 WHIP in 181.2 innings of work. His last start was six shutout innings against the Pirates and he held the Rockies to just two unearned runs in 5.2 innings when these two teams met at Wrigley Field back in April.
Live Betting
The Cubs got only five innings from Jose Quintana on Monday and went through six relievers in rout to their loss. Amongst them, Jesse Chavez threw two innings, but only tossed 16 pitches. The whole bullpen should be available again on Tuesday night.
For Chicago, the bullpen is a strength based on the numbers, but the unit is without Brandon Morrow and we’ve yet to see what Pedro Strop can do coming back from an injury. That leaves the back of the pen a bit shallow. Brandon Kintzler, Justin Wilson and Steve Chishek were all closers in a past life and Chavez has gotten save chances since joining the Cubs. They have options, but do they have enough options for a one-game showdown?
On the other side of the matchup, the Rockies bullpen has been extremely volatile. The franchise made the pen a priority in the offseason. Their only major trade deadline acquisition was also to reinforce the unit. Despite that, there were only two NL teams with a worse bullpen ERA, the Mets and Marlins.
While pitching at Coors Field can attribute to some of the inflated ERA, the Rockies haven’t gotten reliable innings from Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw or Jake McGee. Adam Ottavino and Scott Oberg have been great. Seunghwan Oh was a nice addition, too, but the first three need to pitch well to add depth. Davis is the closer and a proven postseason arm. The former Cub will be counted on in a close game against his former team. He needs to come through.
MLB Pick
The Rockies are a fun story and everyone loves Rocktober, but it may be short lived. The Rockies were the losers of the NL Wild Card Game last year and are likely in the same position here in 2018.
The Cubs have a deeper line and home field advantage. They’ll be motivated after the Brewers beat them and embarrassed them at home. They’ve got a .630 winning percentage at home while the Rockies’ winning percentage is nearly 100-points lower than that on the road.
Look for Lester’s postseason experience to help the Cubs. He’s been through this 21 times before and won’t be rattled by the magnitude of the start. Look for Lester to go six strong before turning the ball over to a still good, although not as deep bullpen, to hold it.
The Rockies are a good offense and the likes of Story, Arenado, Blackmon and Dahl will get to Lester and the bullpen arms for a few runs, but he will battle and get the job done.
On the other side, while Freeland has had a great year, he’s going to be in the biggest game of his life on short rest and if it’s not him, the Rockies could be in even more trouble. Freeland won’t be able to go too deep if he is on short rest which will leave the bullpen exposed. Look for the Cubs to take advantage.
MLB Odds: Cubs 6, Rockies 4
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