Kicking off—perhaps—the weeks’ biggest series, the Houston Astros will hosting the Oakland Athletics in the first of three between two teams battling it out for the AL West crown. The series features the reigning World Series champions and the season’s biggest Cinderella story. Nothing embodies the difference between these teams as well as the pitching matchup which features journeyman Edwin Jackson for the A’s and spare starter Brad Peacock for the Astros.
First pitch of the game between the Athletics and Astros is scheduled for Monday, August 27, 2018, at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. The matchup will be televised locally.
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Odds Analysis
The Astros have stumbled recently, allowing the A’s to catch up a bit in the standings. Houston’s 10-14 in their last 24 games largely due to a plethora of injuries. For the last few weeks, the Astros were without their core up the middle as Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and George Springer were all on the DL. They’re all back now.
A healthy Astros’ lineup is hard to beat. Houston’s got plenty of depth with Tony Kemp hitting well, Martin Maldanado added to the catching corp and Tyler White batting .306 in limited action.
For the starters, Altuve brings a .328 average while Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis, Springer and Correa bring the thunder. At pretty much every position on the field, the Astros have a strong offensive—and defensive—option, making it a hard lineup for an opposing pitcher to navigate without a real break top-to-bottom.
Oakland’s offense is nearly as deep and since the All-Star break has actually outscored the Astros, posting a .811 team OPS. The rising star of Matt Chapman is a big part of that. An excellent defender, the Chapman’s bat has exploded in the second half as he’s posted a .328/.404/.664 slash line and drilled seven homers.
Khris Davis is scorching hot, too. He’s batting .299 with a 1.153 OPS, hitting 17 dingers and driving in 38. There’s no wonder the A’s are as hot as they are with an offense headed by those two bats. They’re not alone either. Marcus Semien is hitting well and Jed Lowrie has a .352 OBP in the second half even though is power hasn’t been what it was early on.
As a team, Oakland’s 21-9 since the break and 42-15 since June 16 when they were 11.5 games back in the AL West in fourth place behind Seattle and Los Angeles.
Probable Pitchers
The Astros’ rotation is so deep that they had to put Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock in the bullpen. The latter of the two was relegated to relief after going 13-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 132 innings last year. After an injury to Lance McCullers Jr., Peacock was finally pushed back into the rotation. When he made his first start last time through the rotation, he was just the sixth pitcher to start a game for Houston.
On the other side of this matchup, Edwin Jackson will be making his 12th start after the A’s picked him up on the scrap heap. He’s one of 13 different pitchers to get a start for Oakland and like a slew of others has become a diamond in the rough, going 4-3 with a 2.97 ERA through his first 11 starts and 63.2 innings.
One of these pitchers is a symbol of an embarrassment of riches while the other is an example of the ability of a team to get the most out of a player even when cast off by other teams.
Breaking down the matchup a bit further, Peacock comes into play with a 3.09 ERA, albeit nearly all of his 55.1 innings have come in relief. Starting is a different animal, but he found success in the rotation last year.
He’s been a bit strikeout pitcher this year, but in his only start this year, he only lasted 1.2 innings and threw 36 pitches. He’ll ramp up further in his second start and be able to go deeper in the game, but the game should still be a bit of a bullpen game for Houston.
On the other side, Jackson has pitched to a sub-3 ERA in 11 starts. He’s not striking out that many and walking more than you’d like, but he’s worked his way out of too much damage even with the occasional home run. He’s defying his FIP of 4.66 to post his 2.97 ERA and while the A’s are all about exceeding expectations and being better than the sum of their parts, it would seem Jackson’s impressive season to date is a bit of a mirage.
Nevertheless, the veteran right-hander has been giving the A’s enough, even if he doesn’t typically get much past five innings. The A’s are 8-3 when he starts though they did lose his last start as he allowed four runs in 4.1 innings against the Rangers. Prior to that, however, he went five innings and allowed two runs in a win over the Astros.
Live Betting
It’s probably hard to believe, but the Astros have the best bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.09. While Arizona, New York, Chicago and even Oakland get more publicity for the relief corps, it’s Houston that has the best marks.
The Astros struggled in the bullpen in last year’s post season. Ken Giles struggled and continued to have issues this year, eventually getting demoted to the minors. While questions existed about the ninth inning early, Hector Rondon stepped into the role with great success. He’s got a 2.27 ERA and 14 saves now in 47.2 innings. With him closing that then allows other great arms to pitch in high leverage situations earlier in the game. Joe Smith, Tony Sipp and even Collin McHugh have had fantastic seasons in the pen.
Meanwhile, the additions of Ryan Pressley and Roberto Osuna only serve to deepen the pen. While Osuna’s addition caused plenty of backlash early, most of that has subsided and the booing won’t be felt as strongly at home if he gets into the game.
A.J. Hinch has a number of options and has shown himself to be a good manager of the pen, juggling effective arms and putting them in excellent positions to succeed.
Of course, Bob Melvin is similarly skilled with his pitchers and he’s got a revamped bullpen to work with. Oakland’s pen is ranked fourth in the AL and that was without Jeurys Familia, Fernando Rondey and Shawn Kelley for most of the year.
All three new pitcher have some level of closing experience and are added to Blake Treinen who has broken out this year with a 0.87 ERA and 32 saves. Meanwhile, Lou Trivino has been excellent in a setup role with a microscopic average against and good swing and miss rate.
These are both deep bullpens able to go several innings successfully. If it comes down to the bullpens, it could be an epic battle.
MLB Pick
The A’s continue to be scorching hot and defy the odds while the Astros haven’t been playing their best baseball. That said, the Astros are mostly healthy again and have plenty of urgency given the disappearance of their lead against the A’s.
Oakland took two of three from Houston last week, but that was in Oakland. Look for Houston to try and get off to a good start in this series, making a statement in a win on Monday.
Count on a couple good innings from Peacock and a nice performance by an underappreciated Houston bullpen behind him. The A’s bats won’t be silenced, but they may be muted a bit.
Meanwhile, Jackson has far outperformed in ERA the way he’s actually pitched. That will catch up to him. He’s prone to the home run and walks a few too many batters. Without a big swing and miss pitch, he’s vulnerable against a good hitting team which the Astros are, despite their recent struggles.
The Astros are healthy and are still the defending World Series Champions. Take them to beat Oakland at home in a series opener that they really must win. Still, it’ll be a close game. These teams—as evidence by the records—are evenly matched.
MLB Odds: Astros 6, Athletics 5
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