If you want a great lesson on how not to wager on a hyped-up unproven overlay on the come the 2019 Philadelphia Phillies would provide a doctorate degree. The bank busting contract for then free agent Bryce Harper sent fans and gamblers into an irrational hysteria. This was despite the fact that Harper was joining a team that had not posted a winning season since 2012 and had not turned a profit on the MLB betting board since 2011. The Phillies institutional challenges of a mediocre roster battling in a competitive division with deeper and more proven teams such as the Atlanta Braves were ignored. Harper was going to cure all, except that he didn’t. And the greatest irony of all was that the team that Harper departed, the Washington Nationals, won the World Series.
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2020 Philadelphia Phillies Win Total Odds at Bookmaker.eu: 85.5, even money over, -130 under
Fans of contrarian gambling and those who subscribe to checking out beaten favorites my want to take a flier on the Phillies for 2020. First, the Phillies have a demanding ownership group that demands immediate results. In fact, ownership has invested a whopping $700 million the past three years on free agent help. Working against the Phillies is a deep and talented National League East Division that includes the Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals, and New York Mets. Beyond that there is no record that points to any gains coming. Philadelphia was 81-81 last year after going 80-82 in 2018.
Manager Joe Girardi
Help has also arrived in the person of manager Joe Girardi, who won a World Series during his time at another pressure cooker with the New York Yankees. Girardi brings a calm and acerbic demeanor but also the instant credibility of a proven winner.
On the Hill
Another reason for optimism in Philadelphia is the arrival of Zack Wheeler from the Mets. Wheeler has had an earned run average under 3.97 the past two seasons and last year was 11-8 with 195 strikeouts in 195.1 innings of work. He fills much needed depth on the Phillies rotation.
Projected number one starter Aaron Nola was 12-7 with a 3.87 earned run average in 2019 with 229 strikeouts in 202.1 innings pitched. Nola was a 2018 NL All-Star when he went 17-6 with a 2.37 earned run average for the Phils.
There is quite a drop from those first two starters and the closer role will be determined in spring training.
At the Plate
Naturally the lineup conversation begins with Bryce Harper, who was good but hardly great in his Philadelphia debut season and had his NL All-Star streak ended at four straight seasons and six of the last seven overall. Harper hit only .260 with a .510 slugging percentage and .882 OPS, far below his career best of 1.008 in 2017. There are legitimate questions about Harper’s actual worth but the Phillies are obviously on the hook and all-in.
Left fielder Andrew McCutcheon is a five-time All-Star and 2013 NL Most Valuable Player from his time with the Pittsburgh Pirates. His production has continued to decline and he was able to play in only 59 games for 2019. The Phillies believe he can have a comeback season and again become impactful. Perhaps, but he is nowhere near his peak.
First baseman Rhys Hoskins is also expected to bounce back from a .226 last season average although he did hit 33 doubles, 29 home runs, and post an .816 OPS.
2020 Philadelphia Phillies Win Total MLB Betting Odds Pick
Lack of depth and a tough division remains the Phillies biggest problem. Girardi may help some but the fact remains this is a very expensive .500 team
2020 Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Odds Prediction: Under 85.5
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