The game between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds is nothing special with both teams right around 20 games under the breakeven point and no playoffs in sight. What has everyone talking about this NL Central contest is the venue. MLB heads back to Iowa on Thursday to play its “Field of Dreams” game after the rousing success of last year’s game. Though it’s not an ideal matchup, the Cubs were an obvious choice given their proximity to the state and that their top minor league affiliate is based in Iowa. That likely makes the Cubs the pick of the fans, though this is considered a home game for the Reds.
First pitch for this NL matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, August 11, 2022 from Field of Dreams in Dyersville, IA. The matchup will air live on FOX. Bet on MLB odds and player props at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
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Odds Analysis
Following Chicago’s win and Cincy’s loss on Monday the teams had identical 44-64 records and the season series has been just as close with the Cubs holding a slight 4-3 edge. The teams may not be very good, but they’ve played some exciting games. The winning team scored at least five runs in six of the seven contests and three times plated double digits. The highlight of that was Cincy’s explosion in a 20-5 win in May. Don’t feel sorry for the Cubs, though. They plated 15 runs the last time the clubs met and dropped an 11-spot earlier in the year. That’s all led to five of the games going OVER the closing total.
The offensive outbursts have been uncommon since both teams average fewer than 4.3 runs. I guess that says a lot about the pitching staffs. Neither has been good, though the Cubs have shown signs over the last several weeks with starters posting a sub-3.00 ERA since July 16. They were 9-10 in that 19-game stretch. Overall it’s been a disaster for the Cubs down over $1300 on the moneyline making them one of the worst investments in MLB.
I guess it all depends on how you look at things. The teams have the same record but the Reds don’t appear as bad since they were left for dead at the start of the season losing 20 of 21 games at one point. They had won six of eight games before Monday’s setback and they are 18-15 since the start of July.
Probable Pitchers
When a team goes through a rebuild veteran players get anxious. That’s the case for expected starter Drew Smyly (4-6, 3.97 ERA), one of the elder statesmen on the Cubs’ roster. His cause is aided by the fact he’s pitched well and is coming off his best outing of the season when he tossed 6.1 innings of shutout ball against the Marlins allowing five hits with four strikeouts. He was shelved for over a month returning in early July to get hammered by the Dodgers. However, since then he’s 2-1 with 3.00 ERA in 21 innings over his last four starts. The veteran lefty pitches to contact and needs strong defense behind him to be successful, which has been the case for most of the year. He’s also shown exceptional command issuing one or zero walks in 10 of 14 starts. That’s helped him post a respectable ERA since he’s allowed more hits than innings pitched.
The Reds are also in the midst of a youth movement handing the ball to rookie Nick Lodolo (3-3, 4.40 ERA) for his first career start against the Cubs. A highly-touted prospect drafted seventh overall in 2019, Lodolo had success in the minor leagues when healthy. He spent time last year on the injured list and missed two months this season with a back injury. He blanked the Mets over 4.2 innings fanning eight in his first game back and outside of one bad game where he allowed five runs in two innings to the Cards, he’s been solid over his last six starts sporting a 3.81 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 28.1 innings. The Reds are 5-1 in those games.
Cubs vs. Reds Prediction
We’ve seen the clubs score a lot of runs in the season series and last year’s Field of Dream game showed the ballpark can yield big hits. However, the numbers show runs have been hard to come by otherwise and with a pair of starters looking sharp recently I have to lean towards the UNDER. I trust the Reds’ bullpen less than Chicago’s so I’ll back the Cubbies on the moneyline with a late rally.
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