The Philadelphia Phillies are falling behind the Braves in the NL East but remain in much better position than the Washington Nationals when the two teams meet on Tuesday night for the middle game of a three-game series. Five games back of Philly, the Nationals have seemingly given up on their season, but Tuesday’s rematch of Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola offers us a head-to-head in one interesting race: a race for the NL Cy Young Award.
First pitch for the game between Nationals and Phillies is scheduled for Tuesday, August 28, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. The matchup will be shown on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
It’s hard to find a bigger disappointment this season than the Nationals. They were the favorites to run away with the NL East and, according to some, represent the NL in the World Series. Meanwhile, this week, the team admitted defeat, dealing Daniel Murphy to the Cubs and sending Matt Adams to the Cardinals.
Washington had several injuries this year. They lost most of the offense earlier this season and have been without the bulk of their bullpen of late. That shouldn’t be an excuse, but the Nationals’ offense is better than their record would indicate.
The Nationals have a much better Pythagorean record than straight up record. We’ve seen them have some monster offensive games, showing the talent is still there in the Nation’s Capital, the team just hasn’t been able to put it all together.
Overall, Washington’s offense has produced more runs this year than the Phillies’ and has a better OPS, driving primarily by a better ability to make contact.
The Nationals have also seen Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper get hot in the second half, further driving the offense forward. Even without Murphy or Adams, this team still has a plethora of star level talent. Juan Soto is doing something unheard-of by a teenage, Harper is still Harper, Anthony Rendon is one of the better young players in the game, and Trea Turner has an impressive collection of skills.
The Nationals, in the right context, can still put up a lot of runs. Of course, facing Nola is hardly a great position for any offense.
The same goes for the Phillies’ offense against Scherzer. The Phils did score a couple against him on Thursday, but the Phillies’ offense has more questions than the Nationals’ given the stats.
The Phillies are a team that really needs Wilson Ramos in the lineup. With him, this team is a much better than without him. Ramos fits into the heart of the order with Rhys Hoskins and gives Philadelphia a good one-two punch. If Ramos is out, the other options behind the plate are below average bats. Given the Phillies’ offensive struggles in the middle of the infield already, adding another below average bat to the offense is an issue.
Probable Pitchers
Nola got the win on Thursday and Mad Max took the loss, but Max Scherzer will try and return the favor when these two face off in a rematch on Tuesday.
The veteran right-hander gave up two runs against the Phillies on Thursday, but that was enough to take the loss. Interestingly, those were the only two runs he has allowed in his last three games.
The Phillies took care of business against Scherzer—or at least did enough—last week in the Nation’s Capital, but Scherzer has more than done his job in his career at Citizens Bank Park, going 6-0 with a 1.65 ERA.
Scherzer hasn’t faced the Phillies in Philadelphia this year though in 13.1 innings against the Phillies total in 2018, he’s allowed only three runs while striking out 25.
Strikeouts are piling up for three-time Cy Young Award winner regardless of opponent. He leads the league with 244 strikeouts. Of course, he’s also the league leader in innings at 181.2, he’s not just getting the most Ks because he’s getting the most chances, he’s tops in K:9 and K:BB, too.
Overall, Scherzer has pitched to a 16-6 record with a 2.13 ERA, 2.63 FIP, 0.886 WHIP and 8.8 rWAR.
As previously stated, Aaron Nola did out pitch him five days ago and it wasn’t just a fluke. The young right-hander has come into his own this season and established himself as a true ace and a Cy Young contender. Scherzer is still probably the favorite, but Nola is charging fast, posting a 1.59 ERA in his last 11 starts.
Overall, his numbers are nearly as impressive as Scherzer’s. The 25-year old is 15-3 with a 2.13 ERA, 2.66 FIP and 0.970 WHIP. He doesn’t have quite as many innings pitched nor does he have the same insane strikeout rate, but he is striking out a batter an inning, while also inducing weak contact. He’s only allowed eight home runs on the year, where he outshines Scherzer. Looking at WAR, he’s only a bit behind at 8.6 rWAR.
In three starts against Washington this year, Nola has allowed three runs on 14 hits in 21.2 innings of work.
Live Betting
With the Phillies’ offense posting okay numbers, it’s been the pitching that’s carried the load for the team, allowing Philadelphia to still be in contention here at the end of August. The rotation has done the brunt of the work with Nola and company giving the Phillies a chance to win day-in and day-out. Of course, the pen has done its part, too.
Seranthony Dominguez took over the closer role from Hector Neris a while back and has had a very strong year with a 3.22 ERA and 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Those numbers are great, but he’s struggled with the home run ball of late. He’s failed to cover three of his last six save chances and has allowed a combined five runs over his last two outings, totaling just 1.1 innings.
Alongside Dominguez, the Phillies have some other options. Pat Neshek has been getting some save chances lately and delivering though he’s not the prototypical closer. He’s a veteran that gets by with a funky arm angle and plenty of deception. There are other young arms that’re still key pieces to the pen including Victor Arano, but Dominguez is the lynchpin.
On the other side of this matchup, the Nationals’ bullpen may be as stable as it’s been since Sean Doolittle went on the DL. Kelvin Herrera is back off his DL stint while Greg Holland has been surprisingly good since the Nationals picked him up from the Cardinals. A change of scenery might be doing the former closer some good.
It’s still a far cry to call the Nationals’ bullpen without Doolittle good, but the unit does have some players performing well including Tim Collins, another reclamation project.
MLB Pick
Nola has proven he can hang with Scherzer, and even outduel him. He’s pitched remarkable the last few months, but the bullpen behind him has some questions with Dominguez’s recent struggles.
Look for these two starters to lock into another impressive pitchers’ duel. Nola won the last one but count on Scherzer to take this one. It’s hard to bet against him to lose back-to-back games.
Look for at least seven strong from both Scherzer and Nola on Tuesday, but in the end, this one will come down to the bullpen. While the National’s pen has questions of its own, look for the Phillies’ bullpen to fall short while the National’s pen gets just enough from Herrera and Holland to close the door on the road victory.
MLB Odds:Nationals 3, Phillies 2
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