Every year injuries to players like Clayton Kershaw and Carlos Correa prevent some of the game’s bigger stars from getting a chance to take center stage, but instead the door is opened for up-and-coming players to get into the national spotlight. This year’s crop of first time All-Stars include exciting youngsters like Ozzie Albies and Eddie Rosario while also giving a chance to grizzled veterans like Nick Markakis and Charlie Morton. As always, the game will feature the best of the best in Major League Baseball and although there’s nothing riding on the game, pride is still a strong motivating factor for both the AL and NL teams.
First pitch for the game between the American and National League All-Stars is scheduled for Tuesday, July 17, 2018, at 8 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The matchup will be shown nationally on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
Over the course of the game’s history, the two leagues have split the head-to-head battle, both winning 43 games, but something must give this year. The overall record in the All-Star game is 43-43-2, but who will win the 89th iteration of this game?
While the National League is the Senior Circuit has had early dominance over the American League, it’s the AL that’s ruled the All-Star Game over the last couple decades. The AL has won five straight years and save for a brief three-game winning streak for the NL from 2010 through 2012, the AL is 17-3-1 in the last 21 years. Going back even further, the NL has just six wins since 1987.
Given the history, the AL should be favored again in 2018. They have the more potent lineup—at least based on name recognition—and has a deep bench of talent and great crop of pitchers again this season though the catcher position is a bit weak now that Wilson Ramos is on the DL. Without Ramos, Salvador Perez and his .656 OPS gets the stat with Yan Gomes behind him. Catcher has been a weak offensive position in the AL this year, but with the rest of the lineup including the likes of Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Manny Machado, the AL squad should be able to make up the difference.
Houston Astros’ manager, and the AL skipper, A.J. Hinch will have a loaded roster with plenty of his own guys at his disposal as he leads the junior league to battle against Dave Roberts and the NL All-Stars.
Pitching Breakdown
Chris Sale and Max Scherzer were the All-Star Game starters last year in Miami and could be starting for their respective leagues again in 2018.
Scherzer is the obvious candidate in the NL given the game is in Washington, DC. Jacob deGrom may be the next arm up as deGrom and Scherzer are the best two pitchers in the NL right now with Scherzer going 12-5 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.899 WHIP while deGrom leads the league in ERA at a minuscule 1.68.
Those two will be extremely hard for the AL to score against, but after them, the next few innings will go to some combination of Patrick Corbin, Mike Foltynewicz, Zack Greinke, Aaron Nola and Ross Stripling.
All those starters have put up great first half numbers, but outside of Greinke and, to a lesser extent Nola, are surprises this year and it’ll be interesting how they far on the big stages against the game’s best, even in an exhibition.
In addition to the NL’s crop of starting pitchers, they will have some good relief arms, giving Roberts plenty of options. Josh Hader and Jeremy Jeffress can come into the middle of innings for key matchups. Felipe Vazquez is a strong closer while Brad Hand and Kenley Jansen are lockdown guys, one throwing with the left-hand and the other the right. That’ll give Roberts a chance to match up in the latter innings if the opportunity arises.
For the American League, Sale is boasting a 5.6 WAR already in 20 starts and is 10-4 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.899 WHIP for Boston. If he doesn’t get the start, then the next most logical candidate is the Yankees’ Luis Severino who is 14-2 with a 2.31 ERA. Both will appear early in the game on Tuesday and will be asked to match Scherzer and deGrom pitch-by-pitch.
After those two, Blake Snell—who before getting on the team as a replacement was the biggest snub of all—has a 2.27 ERA and 12-5 record for the Rays. Other starters like Trevor Bauer, Gerrit Cole, Jose Berrios, and Charlie Morton have all had great years, too.
Like the NL who won’t see Jon Lester or Mikolas—both of whom are inactive, the AL won’t use Justin Verlander, Corey Kluber of Aroldis Chapman. That will keep three of the best arms on the sidelines, but the pitching staff is still strong enough.
After the starts, the AL has Edwin Diaz, Craig Kimbrel and Blake Treinen to close out games. They also have Joe Jimenez who just started getting save chances in Detroit. He’s the middle reliever that Hinch can call mid-inning to get a big out and the Tigers’ lone All-Star representative.
J.A. Happ is the Blue Jay’s lone rep and offers another left-handed arm, but he’s had some bad outings lately and is likely the weak link on either staff.
Offensive Breakdown
It’s hard to ignore the strength of the AL lineup. While Perez in the catchers’ spot doesn’t offer much offensively, he can still get ahold of one and drive it out. He’s got experience catching in the All-Star game, is a great receiver and has shown the flair for the dramatic in his career. Many argue he doesn’t belong in the game, but he’s the type of player that could lead to the win for the AL despite that.
Of course, outside of Perez, the starting lineup for the AL features a trio of Joses in Abreu, Altuve and Ramirez. Then, Manny Machado, Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Aaron Judge and J.D. Martinez fill out the roster. That’s a lineup filled with No.3 type hitters.
At nearly every position the AL comes out ahead compared to the NL. At catcher in the NL, Willson Contreras tops Perez and first base is deeper in the NL, too, with Freddie Freemand starting and both Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto behind him. The AL has Mitch Moreland as the back up at first.
Outside of those positions, however, Jose Altuve is the reigning AL MVP at second against a good, but streaky power-first hitter in Javier Baez. At third, Nolan Arenado is one of the best in the game, but does get most of his at bats in Colorado and still Jose Ramirez has an OPS over 50-points higher.
At shortstop, it’s hard to compare Manny Machado and Brandon Crawford. Sure, Crawford has had a very good year, but the shortstop position in the AL is loaded with talent including Machado, Francisco Lindor and Jean Segura.
In the outfield, it’s hard to even compare these two teams. Nick Markakis and Matt Kemp have both gotten deserving nods to start, but Markakis to this point in his career was a good complimentary piece while Kemp was traded as a salary dump over the winter. Meanwhile, Bryce Harper is batting .214.
The depth in the NL outfield with Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich and Charlie Blackmon is good, but Michael Brantley, Mitch Haniger, George Springer and Nelson Cruz are hard to top.
Offensively, the American League has more talent. The NL holds the edge at first and behind the plate, but the AL pulls away everywhere else, particularly in the starting outfield.
Live Betting
We’re now in the second year since Major League Baseball did away with the rule that the winner of the MLB All-Star Game would be given home field advantage in the World Series.
With the game now back to being purely an exhibition game, the managers no longer have the same motivation to win and although these are still competitive people with pride, the lack of an added incentive to win opens the managers up to do their best to get every player in the game.
To avoid a lack of arms should the game go into extra innings, both managers will save a couple pitchers in case we get some free baseball on Tuesday night, but for the most part, all the position players figure to get an at-bat or a couple innings in the field. As such, it’s important to evaluate the entire roster for both teams rather than focusing on the starting lineups and a couple big name pitchers.
Offensively, the AL roster looks stronger than that in the NL at most positions save for catcher. The pitching, however, has a bit more balance on the NL side, particularly with Josh Hader and Jeremy Jeffress of the Brewers serving as electric middle relievers with the experience and capability to come into mid-inning jams and close the door. That could be a helpful skill set in this game should another pitcher get into trouble.
MLB Pick
Trout is the best player in baseball and has already nabbed the All-Star Game MVP honors twice. He’s bad after missing the 2017 game due to injury and will lead a loaded roster that also includes Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve and Manny Machado. That’s a lot of thump and it barely stretches the surface in the AL.
Beyond the thump at the plate, this team’s depth and breadth at each position—save for catcher—is astonishing. Yes, the NL has a great team, too, but it’s poster child is Bryce Harper who has had a disappointing season here in his free agent year.
The starting pitching for both teams up front could keep it a low scoring game early, but look for the AL to get a few early runs with it’s loaded lineup and be able to carry that to a victory. After all, if the AL can get out early they have the psychological edge given their recent run of success in these All-Star Games.
The NL’s best chance is to go into the middle innings in a tie—or with a lead—and let their middle relievers outduel the guys in the sixth and seventh for the AL, but if the AL has the lead, they have enough guys that are used to pitching shutdown innings and protecting leads to close the door on the NL offense.
In the end, we’re nitpicking a bit on these teams. Both are loaded with top-end talent and either one could win. Still, take the momentum from the AL and their stacked starting lineup over the NL’s less-impressive starting nine.
MLB Odds: American League 5, National League 4
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