While the National League Most Valuable Player award seems to be focused on two players, the American League award is more focused on the definition of value and whether the MVP is the best player in the league, or merely the one that has most instrumental to a first-place team.
The best player in the AL this year has been Mike Trout. A two-time MVP winner already, Trout continues to show why he’s the consensus best player in the game, but he also plays for a losing team. Does that matter? Can Trout still win the MVP even if he goes home before October?
There are some contenders in the hunt for the AL MVP, but Trout is far and away the better player, but does he bring enough value from a losing team? Based on WAR, he’s still the most valuable, but does that matter to voters?
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AL MVP Odds
Mike Trout -1500
DJ LeMahieu +1200
Rafael Devers +3000
Xander Bogaerts +3000
Justin Verlander +4000
Nelson Cruz +4000
Field (Any Other Player) +1309
Odds Breakdown
Mike Trout is far and away the favorite to win the AL MVP, again. The game’s best player has already taken home the award twice and finished in the top-4 in voting each of his six previous seasons. He was in the top-2 in five of them.
Really, the only knock on Trout is that the Angels are not a good team. The argument of value comes into play and just how valuable a player can be on a team that is under-.500 and going home in October. Of course, the sabermetrics argument is value is value regardless of context and Trout’s 8.2 rWAR speaks to that.
In addition to the stagger WAR numbers, Trout leads the league in homers with 43 and OPS at 1.081. His 182 OPS+ is also tops in the league, though he led that category in five straight seasons coming into this one, too.
While the MVP award is supposed to be about this season alone, it often has a legacy consideration as well. Trout’s career to this point helps.
After Trout, the next most likely winner of the award is DJ LeMahieu. He doesn’t have the statistical and sabermetric argument that Trout does, but he’s a member of a winning team with the best record in the league. He’s also widely considered the stabilizer in a lineup full of injuries throughout the season. He’s been one of the few consistent faces. When adding in versatility, you could tell a story of who he’s the most valuable player in the league even if he hasn’t been the best player.
The 30-year old has shown more power this year than any point in his career despite playing at Coors Field prior to this year, but his 24 homers is hardly noteworthy in this power-laden environment. His .332 batting average leads the league, however, and his .914 OPS and 140 OPS+ are both very impressive.
If LeMahieu is to beat out Trout for the award, he will need a big September, but it would be reminiscent to the Jose Altuve versus Aaron Judge debate of a few years ago. The batting average and scrappy all-around player in Altuve took the award that year.
Beyond Trout and Altuve, the odds of anyone else taking the award are quite long. A pair of Red Sox players have the next best odds with Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers at +3000. Those two would need Boston to get hot in September and squeeze into the Wild Card spot to have a chance. If either are the primary catalyst getting Boston to October, their chances improve greatly.
Either could, theoretically, pass LeMahieu as the best non-Trout option and representative of the value means winning vote. For now, Bogaerts has the edge as a good defensive shortstop with a 144 OPS+, but Devers has certainly had a nice breakout season with a .947 OPS and .321 average.
Beyond the Sox players, the only other listed candidates are Justin Verlander and Nelson Cruz, a pitcher and a designated hitter, who positions that don’t often win the MVP. While Verlander continues to dominate, pitchers only really take the award in seasons without a clear offensive option. Meanwhile, Cruz has been a big part of the Twins’ offensive explosion, but he doesn’t offer anything on defense. His 167 OPS+ is amazing, particularly for a 38-year old, but its short of Trout who does offer solid defense.
Potential Sleeper
Really, with Mike Trout such a heavy favorite, nearly anyone else winning would be considered a sleeper save maybe DJ LeMahieu who is getting a good amount of publicity of late. Still, with a month to go, its possible someone tears it up enough in September to raise to the top of the pack.
The field still have reasonably low odds for the field in September at +1309 and there are a few options not listed amongst the top six with at least a shot, albeit quite a long one.
Alex Bregman would be at—or near—the top of the list. Hindered a bit by so many strong offensive contributors from the Astros, Bregman has the second-best WAR according to Fangraphs in the AL, just behind Trout. What separates his from Trout, however, is his team’s record. Bregman’s WAR. George Springer is another interesting option from the Astros.
Neither Bregman nor Springer, however, are going to greatly impact the Astros’ season here in September, but either could go on a huge run to further pad their numbers.
Analysis and Prediction
For now, Trout is heads above the rest of the competition based on stats. He’s the leader in WAR, the leader in OPS and OPS+ He plays a premium defensive position. And, he’s got the pedigree of having won the award before.
There’s no doubt that Trout will get a ton of first place votes for MVP despite playing on a sub-.500 club. It’s not unprecedented for a bad team to get an MVP. The most notable case is Alex Rodriguez back in the day for the Rangers, but Trout has won previously with a less-than-stellar team, too.
If it were close, the edge would probably go to the player on the winning team, but DJ LeMahieu has a fWAR or 4.8 to Trout’s 8.6. It’s hard to image that big of a gap being made up by LeMahieu’s team’s record and positional flexibility.
While Cruz’s bat is closes to Trout’s, his lack of a position makes him a longshot. Verlander is great, but pitchers won’t often win—though he does have an MVP trophy already.
It’s possible Cruz or LeMahieu or Bogaerts or Bregman have a big enough September to sway things, but for now, Trout’s lead is just too big, even on a bad team.
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