After a five-game series against the Cardinals, the Chicago Cubs will stay at home and welcome in the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday night to kick off another long series, this one being four games. The pitching matchups for this series have yet to be announced as the Cubs will exhaust five starters in four days leading into it and the D-Backs have yet to set their post-All-Star game rotation beyond their first series. Regardless, it should be a fun game between two contenders fighting for positioning in divisions that are bunched up at the top.
First pitch for the game between the Diamondbacks and Cubs is scheduled for Monday, July 23, 2018, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
Arizona’s been a streaky team this year with an excellent April, terrible May, great July and—so far—lackluster July.
One of the biggest reasons for the team’s up-and-down is a spotty offense. They’ve scored enough runs to fall in the middle of the pack in runs scored on the year, but that’s been on the strength of good Aprils and Junes and despite scoring the fewest runs of any MLB team in May.
In short, the D-Backs’ offense is short a bat or two; when one key player struggles or is injured, it leaves a big hole in the lineup.
Looking at the stats, the gap between Arizona and it’s 421 runs and the Cubs’ 476 runs is bigger than just 55 runs. After all, the Cubs have a .265 team average, making good contact. The D-Backs are batting .228 as a team with a .307 OBP. They’re not giving themselves enough chances to score.
Despite that, this team still has some elite hitters. After the rough start, Paul Goldschmidt has been red hot and is back to having All-Star caliber numbers with a .920 OPS, 21 homers and 52 RBIs. David Peralta, A.J. Pollock and Daniel Descalso are also having well above average seasons, but that’s it. Jake Lamb is struggling to the tune of a .229 average while Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed and Chris Owings have all been well below par.
On the other side of the offensive meter, the Cubs are loaded with talent well beyond the eight spots in the batting order.
Depth plagues the D-Backs, but depth is a strength for the Cubs which is a good thing considering they’ll be playing on Monday after playing five games in four days.
For the Cubs all eight starters are average or better based on all having a 95 OPS+ or better. Meanwhile, Ben Zobrist and Ian Happ allows Joe Maddon some flexibility to play the better matchups.
Even with solid numbers across the board—and excellent seasons from Javy Baez and Willson Contreras—Anthony Rizzo has been a disappointment with a .246 average and .748 OPS.
Probable Pitchers
While we don’t know the pitching matchup for this series, it’s fair to think the D-Backs could go with Patrick Corbin on Monday.
Robbie Ray, Zack Godley and Zack Greinke will pitch over the weekend, leaving Corbin and Matt Koch as the healthy starters ready for the series.
Corbin is an All-Star putting together a great year. He’s 6-4 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in 20 starts. What’s perhaps more impressive is his 2.81 FIP, indicating that it’s not just luck that’s allowed him to pitch well. He’s striking out 11 per nine innings while walking just 35 and allowing 11 home runs in 122.1 innings.
The 28-year old southpaw got off to a hot start to the year and hasn’t looked back. He’s healthy and effective, giving the D-Backs both quality and quantity each time out.
Corbin’s last start wasn’t quite as good as usual, giving up four runs in six innings, but that came on the heels of four straight starts of at no more than two runs allowed.
In his career against the Cubs, Corbin is 4-1 in six games though his ERA is a less impressive 4.25. Still, he’s fared well against them in a handful of chances.
On the Cubs’ side of this matchup, the starter is a bit less certain. The Cubs used five starters in four days thanks to Saturday’s doubleheader and won’t have a starter ready to go on normal rest.
Kyle Hendricks could go on short rest, but that would mean everyone would have to go on short rest. It’s more likely the Cubs will call on a sixth start to make a spot start on Monday.
The identify of such a spot starter is unknown. Luke Farrell, Duane Underwood Jr., and Jen-Ho Tseng have all made one start apiece this year with all the other starts going to one of the five pitching in the Cardinals’ series or Yu Darvish who isn’t ready to come off the DL just yet.
Any of the three ‘other’ starters would be a downgrade from their starting five, but Farrell and Underwood looked good in varying sample sizes.
Live Betting
Should this game get into the late innings tied, it could be a fun game to watch unfold. Both the Diamondbacks and Cubs have excellent bullpens. The D-Backs likely have the edge in this series after the Cubs play a doubleheader on Saturday and are dealing with their closer, Brandon Morrow, on the DL.
Even so, the Cubs do still have Steve Cishek, Pedro Strop, Justin Wilson and Carl Edwards Jr. as options at the end of the game. Meanwhile, Anthony Bass has been a sensation. The 30-year old journeyman has allowed just two runs—one earned—in 14.2 innings spread over 14 appearances. He’s walked just one in that time though he has allowed 15 hits.
As for Arizona, they’ve got just as much depth plus their closer, Brad Boxberger is still on the active roster.
The 30-year old Boxberger has 24 saves and a solid 3.06 ERA. He is a bit wild and does have a few too many walks, but generally gets the job done, allowing the superior reliever in Archie Bradley to pitch in the big spots whenever needed.
Even when he’s soiled his pants, Bradley gets outs while Andrew Chafin and Silvino Bracho have shown to be big pieces, too.
MLB Pick
The Cubs got hot headed into the break and used that—along with the Brewers’ slump—to grab first place in the NL Central.
The Cubs are one of the best team in the NL, even with the Dodgers adding Manny Machado. They can match up with anyone. Still, look for them to come up short on Monday against the D-Backs.
Arizona has an All-Star starter lined up to make the start and will be coming off a three-game series as opposed to five games for the Cubs. Both these teams have elite bullpens but look for Chicago’s pen to be a bit more worn, particularly with Brandon Morrow on the DL.
Offensively, the Cubs are deeper, but—again—will be more tired. In this game, look for Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock and company to take advantage of a lesser Cubs’ starter to get an early lead and with a strong starter on the bump and good bullpen behind him, count on Arizona to carry that lead to a win.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks 5, Cubs 3
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