The top two teams in the NL West, the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks, will play a three-game series over the weekend to determine division supremacy—at least for the moment. The middle game of the three will be played on Saturday and broadcast nationally. With the Giants and Dodgers charging behind the two divisional leaders, winning this series is important to maintain an edge in the division. In this middle game of three, the Rockies will send Chad Bettis to the hill against the D-Backs’ Matt Koch.
First pitch for the game between the Diamondbacks and Rockies is scheduled for Saturday, June 9, 2018, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Coors Field. The matchup will be shown on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
Colorado dropped their series finale against the Reds coming into the series with the Diamondbacks. The Rockies still took the series, but the loss was the team’s fifth loss in their last seven games, dropping them behind Arizona in the standings.
Speaking of Arizona, the Diamondbacks enter the series having lost two of three from San Francisco, but will be more rested with an off day on Thursday. They’re also coming into play having won six of nine, granted against lackluster competition.
In general, the Rockies are scuffling and while the D-Backs have shown some signs of coming out of what’s been a month-long slump, Arizona hasn’t proven anything against a quality opponent like the Rockies since taking a series against Houston in early May. In fact, since May 9, the D-Backs are still just 8-18 even after the recent wins.
For Arizona, the struggles have been offensive. Things were epically bad for a while. The bats have started heating up a bit, but the D-Backs have still scored the third fewest runs in the NL and have a team average of .218 and team OBP below .300. They’re .676 team OPS is right up—or down as it were—there with the Orioles and Marlins, two of the worst teams in baseball.
On the positive side, the team did just add Jon Jay to the outfield mix to help minimize the loss of A.J. Pollock. Jay’s a quality hitter and should help. Meanwhile, a healthy Jake Lamb helps stabilize the heart of the order. What really could make a difference, however, is Paul Goldschmidt finally hitting like himself. He was batting .208 as recently as June 3, but has gone 7-for-9 with four doubles in his last two games. If he gets hot, he can carry an offense.
A hot Goldy and healthy Lamb could be enough to leapfrog the Rockies’ offense. Given the Rockies play half of their games at Coors Field and are just in the middle of the pack in runs scored, it’s safe to say the Rockies’ bats aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire.
Colorado’s offense lies heavily on the shoulders of Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado. D.J. LeMahieu gets on base, but has little pop while Trevor Story can hit one out, but is a strikeout machine. Even factoring in those two, this lineup is missing any production in the bottom of the order.
Probable Pitchers
Based on the numbers, the Rockies are in a good position with Chad Bettis making the start. The 29-year old right-hander is the old man in the Colorado rotation and, aside from Kyle Freeland, he’s put up the best numbers. His 4-1 record and 4.02 ERA tells the story of an above-average starter. His 1.242 WHIP is good though his 4.40 FIP is a bit dicey.
Bettis is not a strikeout pitcher which drives down his FIP. He’s only struck out 47 in 71.2 innings pitching, instead relying on weak contact to get outs.
That strategy works—particularly in a league filled with all-or-nothing swings—but it’s a bit more challenging when pitching at Coors Field. It’s both a homer friendly park and a huge stadium with tons of ground for the outfielders to cover at the same time.
Bettis style isn’t conducive to Coors and the home/road splits this season show that. The righty has a 2.03 ERA on the road, but has a 7.24 ERA in five home starts. He struggles at home and against the Diamondbacks, a double whammy. He’s 1-2 with an 8.44 ERA in 10 career games against the D-Backs.
Despite the good overall numbers, the Bettis matchup isn’t a favorable one for the Rockies. Meanwhile, Matt Koch is one of the weaker links in the Arizona rotation. Even so, with he’s done well in 10 games, going 4-3 with a 3.76 ERA. He’s making the opposition put the ball in play with only 13 walks in 55 innings, but he’s also not striking many batters out with just 31 Ks in that time.
Koch has outperformed his peripherals. He’s allowing homers and not striking many people out. Instead, he’s relying on a low BABIP to drive his success. His FIP is 5.04.
Nevertheless, he is coming off six scoreless against the Brewers where he struck out a career high six batters so his swing and miss stuff may be coming. It’ll have to if he wants to stay in the rotation. With Robbie Ray and Shelby Miller both close to returning, Koch is a likely odd-man out of the rotation unless he dominates, giving him extra motivation on Saturday.
Live Betting
It appears the D-Backs’ terrible run in behind them. During that time, Arizona got questionable starting pitching at times and barely any offense, but even when the rest of the team wasn’t getting it done, the bullpen was thriving.
Arizona’s bullpen has been neck-and-neck all season with the Brewers for best pen in baseball. Right now, the D-Backs are second in the Majors with a 2.66 ERA.
On Saturday, Koch will have a stacked pen behind him. Brad Boxberger has been a shutdown closer, Archie Bradley’s thriving in his floater role, moving around, getting the most important outs in the game. Meanwhile, there are others that are delivering in other roles to allow him to move around. T.J. McFarland has been one of the better long men in baseball, Yoshihisa Hirano has quietly been completely lockdown in a set-up role.
For the Rockies, things have been a much bigger struggle in the later innings. The pen has the second worst ERA in the NL at 5.03.
Of course, ERA doesn’t tell the whole story, especially for a team that pitches half the time at Coors Field, but with Adam Ottavino on the DL, there really isn’t much left to set up for Wade Davis. Davis has pitched well. He’s saved 20 games and has kept runners off base despite a high walk rate. He’s hard to hit and that’s crucial at Coors.
The problem, however, is who pitches between Bettis and Davis, especially considering Bettis hasn’t exactly gone deep in any home games this season. Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw and Mike Dunn have been busts. Chris Rusin has a 7.42 ERA as a multi-inning reliever. The cupboard is pretty bare.
MLB Pick
These two teams are rather evenly matched. The starters both have some questions, particularly at Coors Field.
Look for both offenses to take advantage of the favorable stadium and put runs on the board. After a terrible offensive month of April, the D-Backs are swinging better and the Rockies are hitting well, too.
In the end, look for this game to come down to the bullpens. In that departments, the Diamondbacks have the lead against nearly everyone. Arizona has a much deeper bullpen, giving them more options to mix and match and get the necessary outs.
The Rockies’ bullpen hasn’t been nearly as good as advertised. Look for five or six okay innings from both Koch and Bettis, but could on Arizona to score a couple big runs off the Colorado bullpen in route to a narrow victory.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks 7, Rockies 6
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