The Arizona Diamondbacks will kick off a brief two-game interleague series against the Los Angeles Angels on Monday when they travel to Orange County. The D-Backs have been playing much better baseball of late and have climbed back atop the NL West standings. They’ll do what they can to keep things going against Mike Trout and the Angels who are trying to stay relevant in a difficult AL West division. Can the Angels get back on track at home or will the D-Backs steal their thunder on Monday?
First pitch for the game between the Diamondbacks and Angels is scheduled for Monday, June 18, 2018, at 10:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
After going 9-18 in May, the Diamondbacks have turned things around with a 9-3 start to June. One of the biggest issues for Arizona last month was the offense and even though the team still misses A.J. Pollock the offense has certainly picked up with Paul Goldschmidt finally working his way out of a major early season slump.
The All-Star first baseman is hitting .258 overall with a .869 OPS. He’s also leading the league in strikeouts with 81. He was slumping for a long time, but June has brought out the real Goldschmidt. He’s producing a .458/.544/.938 slash line in June.
It’s been like a switch has gone off for Goldy and the team has fallen in line behind him. Arizona has scored 86 runs in June, second to the Dodgers. They’re raking now that Goldschmidt has taken the team on his shoulders.
Ketel Marte is hitting .410 this month with three homers, David Peralta has belted five out of the park and has a .348 average. Nick Ahmed and Daniel Descalso are hitting over .300 this month, too. The addition of Jon Jay has been solid, too, as he’s getting on base at a .407 clip.
While everything looked dismal for this lineup a couple weeks ago; now, everyone is hitting and the lineup is running like a well-oiled machine.
It’s been a bit of a streaky season for the Angels who have had their own offensive issues. They had won six in a row to climb back into the AL West race, but were just swept by the Mariners in Seattle. Generally, offense has been the bigger issue than pitching although the bullpen could use some work and the rotation is dealing with the injury of Shohei Ohtani. Of course, the loss of Ohtani is a blow for the bats, too.
Ohtani and Andrelton Simmons are on the DL, leaving Trout and Justin Upton as the only active hitters with an OPS+ above Albert Pujols’ 92 and more than a week’s worth of games played.
As good as Trout is—and he’s arguably better than ever with a 210 OPS+, 23 home runs and a 6.1 WAR—the centerfielder cannot win on his own. It’s not basketball. One player cannot take a mediocre team on his shoulders and carry them to a championship series LeBron style.
Sure, Upton has been okay, but he’s hitting .254 and while he has 15 homers, he’s not exactly a consistent producer; though he is hitting well right now and is a very hot and cold player.
Even a hot Upton alongside Trout only gives the Angels a chance to score every couple innings. Pujols continues to slide as his OBP is down to .287. Ian Kinsler’s got a .286 OBP, Zack Cozart’s hitting .219 and the rest of the team is populated with role players like Luis Valbuena and Chris Young who are now thrust into everyday roles due to injuries.
Probable Pitchers
Neither team has officially announced their starter for this series opener, but the rotations lineup to feature the young Jamie Barria for the Angels against veteran right-hander Zack Greinke for Arizona.
Barria has been up-and-down a bit here in his rookie season, but the 21-year old right-hander has pitched well when given the chance to start. He’s 5-2 and the Angels are 5-3 over his eight big league starts. He’s pitching a 2.61 ERA and has thrown 41.1 innings.
In his last start, the young Barria went just five innings against the Mariners, allowing three runs—two earned—on eight hits. He took the loss in that game. Prior to that, his last Major League start was on June 1 when he held the Rangers scoreless in six innings.
Barria’s shown excellent command over his last several starts. In fact, he’s walked just three batters over his five Major League starts. He’s also kept the ball in the yard in five of his eight starts though he did give up two homers against Seattle last time out and three against the Yankees back on May 26.
Coupled with his outstanding Major League performance to date, Barria has pitched to a 3.50 ERA in five PCL starts for Salt Lake. He’s done an exceptional job jumping from the Majors to the minors and adjusting to different schedules along the way. He’s shown real maturity which helps him on the mound as well.
As impressive as Barria has been, he’s got a difficult matchup. Arizona is hitting better now after struggling through May and he’s got to outduel a true professional.
Greinke hasn’t been has lights out as Patrick Corbin this year, but he’s pitching well. He’s 5-5 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.147 WHIP. He’s limiting walks as he always does and has a strong 9.7 strikeout per nine inning ratio.
The one area that Greinke hasn’t been himself is with the long ball. Arizona’s a hitter’s park, but the Humidor was supposed to cut down on that. It has for the D-Backs’ offense, but Greinke’s still seeing the ball fly as he’s allowed 14 homers in 14 starts.
The 34-year old, veteran right-hander is coming off his worst start of the season when he allowed five runs on five hits and four walks in 4.2 innings. Those four walks were really out of character. Prior to that start, he walked 13 all season. The walks have been elevated a bit over his last four starts, but should regress closer to his norm against the Angels.
Still, he’s not exactly at his best right now. He’s allowed nine runs over his last two games, spanning 10.1 innings. Still, the veteran pitcher is still a pro and can navigate lineups even without his best stuff and right now, the Angels’ lineup doesn’t have its best stuff either.
Live Betting
Looking to the bullpens, a bad outing aside for Brad Boxberger, the closer is still having a good season and is a reliable arm. With Boxberger and Archie Bradley, the D-Backs can shorten the game to seven innings and when you factor in Yoshihisa Hirano who has a 1.55 ERA and Andrew Chafin with his 1.93 ERA, the game gets even shorter.
The Brewer’s elite bullpen gets a lot of play because of how dominant Josh Hader has been, but the Arizona bullpen is the one with the best ERA in baseball at 2.50.
Top to bottom, the pen is stacked. Silvino Bracho is just one example. He’s only pitched in 11 games, throwing 12.2 innings, but he’s already become a reliable arm. There are so many options for Torey Lovullo, it takes pressure off everyone. If someone doesn’t have it one day, Lovullo has a number of options behind him to clean it up. The Angels don’t enjoy that same luxury.
The Los Angeles bullpen has been good based on the numbers. The unit ranks in the middle of the pack in team bullpen ERA and has generally gotten the job done. It’s not a unit that’ll kill you, but there’s no question it doesn’t stack up with the Arizona pen, especially with Keynan Middleton injured.
Middleton was pitching very well in the closer’s role and while Blake Park has done well filling it, it’s moved everyone back a spot and opened up the middle innings to be more vulnerable.
MLB Pick
Barria is pitching well, but with the Angels’ offense missing production around Upton and Trout and with the bullpen at a disadvantage compared to the D-Backs, it’s a lot of pressure to put on the rookie.
Look for Barria to pitch relatively well, but the youngster has only pitched more than 89 pitches once in eight starts. The 21-year old won’t be allowed to go deep in this game regardless of how well he’s throwing.
Look for him to go toe-to-toe with Greinke through five frames, but he may not be allowed to go through the sixth, leaving the bullpen exposed for at last three innings.
While Barria keeps it close, the bullpen will have a hard time restraining an Arizona offense that has everyone playing well all at once. Count on the D-Backs to grab the lead and once that happens, the D-Backs’ bullpen is too good to bet against. Give this one to a surging Diamondbacks’ team on the road.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks 6, Angels 3
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