As Major League Baseball tries to be more engaged on social media, one of their avenues towards that goal involves broadcasting games live on Facebook. On Wednesday afternoon, the series finale between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants will be the latest game shown in such a way. The divisional foes are only separated by a few games and part of a four-team race in the NL West. To close out this three-game set, the Diamondbacks will give Clay Buchholz his fourth start, this one opposite Chris Stratton.
First pitch for the game between the Diamondbacks and Giants is scheduled for Wednesday, June 6, 2018, at 3:45 p.m. ET at AT&T Park. The matchup will be shown on Facebook as part of MLB’s social media initiative.
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Odds Analysis
After a great start to the season and a 21-8 record on May 1, the Diamondbacks then went on to lose 18 of 23 games before falling to a season worst 26-26 on May 27 with a loss at Oakland.
Offense had been the biggest issue for the Diamondbacks over those 23 games, scoring the fewest runs in the sport in May.
Arizona, however, has bounced back during its most recent homestand, winning five of six against the Reds and Marlins and scoring 21 runs in both three-game series, averaging seven runs a game over the homestand.
The D-Backs will now try and carry that momentum on the road. Of course, AT&T Park is a much more difficult park to hit in compared to Chase Field, even with the humidor. The Giants are also a better team than either Cincinnati or Miami. There’s also the issue of playing the road where Arizona is only 12-14.
The Diamondbacks still don’t have A.J. Pollock or Steven Souza, but Jake Lamb is back in the lineup which helps lengthen things. Paul Goldschmidt is also finally starting to hit. He’s got six hits—including two homers—over his last six games. Those numbers aren’t great, but it’s progress.
Over the last week, David Peralta and Daniel Descalso have continued to rake, hitting five combined homers and going 11-for-32. J.R. Murphy has taken over more at bats behind the plate and he’s 6-for-18 in his last four games with three bombs. Meanwhile, Ketel Marte is eight for his last 19.
On the other side of this matchup, the Giants rank in the bottom third in baseball in runs. They have plated 12 more than the D-Backs and have a much better average at .262 and a .732 OPS compared to Arizona’s .217 and .678.
The Giants, however, are now without Brandon Belt who has been the team’s best hitter. Without him, however, the offense is still chugging along. Brandon Crawford has been on fire or more than a month. He’s hitting .406 with a 1.040 OPS in his last 27 games.
Meanwhile, Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria and Buster Posey are all former franchise leading players and all three have been swinging well the last week.
Probable Pitchers
Due to injuries, the Diamondbacks for forced to go dumpster diving to help fill out the back end of their rotation and landed on Clay Buchholz who they inked to a minor league deal on May 4. The former Red Sox wasn’t in the minors long and has looked good so far in three big league starts with Arizona.
Three starts aren’t a great sample size, but 0.8 WAR in three starts is a pretty good stat. He’s 1-1 in his three starts with three runs, 10 hits and two walks allowed in 18 innings. He’s struck out 14 in that time, but has allowed a pair of homers. His 0.667 WHIP really shows how dominant he’s been though his 3.33 FIP indicates there’s been some luck involved.
Luck or not, nobody expected this out of Buchholz. The oft-injured southpaw was last effective in 2015 when he had a 3.26 ERA in 18 starts. In a full season in 2014, however, he had a 5.34 ERA.
The lefty is far from reliable, but he’s throwing the ball well right now. The Diamondbacks will ride that wave if they can.
We’ve seen Buchholz pitch well in the past. He’s still just 33-years old so there should be plenty left in the tank, particularly with him not using too many bullets in a season with just three seasons with 170 innings. Health has been the issue for Buchholz. He looks healthy and he’s throwing well. Who knows how long that will last, but he’s healthy—based on all reports—going into Wednesday’s series finale.
On the other side, Chris Stratton comes into the game on a hot-streak, too. He’s won four straight starts and is coming off his best start of the season, tossing six scoreless against the Phillies.
Granted, Philadelphia struggled to score anything over the weekend series so it’s hard to tell if the good outing was more telling of the Phillies’ offense of Stratton’s pitching, but in either case, it’s not a bad sign.
Overall, Stratton is 7-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in 12 starts. He’s been a serviceable starter, but little more.
He’s not prone to go deep in games, exposing the bullpen, but he did go seven, allowing only one run in his only start against Arizona this year. He didn’t get the win, but the Giants did.
Live Betting
The bullpen has been where the Diamondbacks have thrived all season. Arizona struggled to get the lead to the pen for the better part of a month, but when the pen had the ball, they produced.
Arizona’s 2.48 bullpen ERA is best in baseball and more than a run and a half better than the Giants’ at 4.12.
San Francisco’s bullpen, however, is better than advertised. Mark Melancon is back after missing the start of the season and had a scoreless inning in his season debut, striking out the side. Meanwhile, Will Smith has thrown just 13 innings and he’s been great, too, with just three runs and seven hits allowed.
Add in Reeys Mortona’s 1.38 ERA, Hunter Strickland’s success in the closer’s role and solid performances by former closers like Tony Watson and Sam Dyson and this bullpen is clearly better than the numbers indicate. Many of those runs attributed to the pen came from Roberto Gomez, Josh Osich, Derek Law and others who are no longer on the active roster.
While the Giants’ bullpen is better than the numbers, it’s still not quite as good as the one in Arizona.
The Diamondbacks have the edge in the pen, even if that edge is narrower than the bullpen ERAs would have you believe.
Brad Boxberger has been excellent in the closer’s role, shortening the game to eight innings, while Archie Bradley is an excellent—and versatile—reliever who can be used in nearly any situation. From there, Yoshihisa Hirano and Andrew Chafin both have sub-two ERAs while T.J. McFarland has been great with length.
MLB Pick
The Diamondbacks are back atop the NL West after a nice week against inferior competition. The wins could do a world of good for the confidence of a team that looked lost a week ago.
San Francisco, meanwhile, isn’t exactly an elite team though they’re certainly better than the Reds or Marlins. Still, look for the D-Backs to get the win.
Arizona’s pitching has continued to produce even during the struggles. It was a historically bad offense that was holding the Diamondbacks back. The offense has started to look better and Stratton isn’t a shutdown starter that can put them back in a slump.
Look for the D-Backs to scratch a couple across the plate against Stratton and add to it against an average Giants’ bullpen. Meanwhile, Buchholz should go five or six and that’s all the Diamondbacks need from him given the best bullpen in baseball.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks 6, Giants 4
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