The Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals meet for the middle game of a three-game weekend series on Saturday with both teams trending in opposite directions. Coming into the year, the Nationals were a favorite to win the NL, but currently sit under-.500 after a weak start. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are off to an even better start than a year ago. They’ll send the red-hot Patrick Corbin to the hill on Saturday opposite Washington’s second choice in the rotation’s fifth spot, Jeremy Hellickson.
First pitch for the game between the Diamondbacks and Nationals is scheduled for Saturday, April 28, 2018, at 4:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The matchup will be shown on Fox Sports 1.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
Washington took four of the six meetings between these two teams in 2017, but the D-Backs enter play with the better record and more success this season.
At the plate, Arizona and Washington rank similarly, in the middle of the pack in runs scored. The total number of games play a big part this early in the year and the D-Backs are a few runs behind the Nationals in total runs scored, but they’ve also played fewer games.
Washington was one of the NL’s best offenses last year, stacked with top performers. Here in 2018, they’ve been riddled with injuries. Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy are on the DL, leaving Moises Sierra, Wilmer Difo and others getting more at bats than expected.
Bryce Harper is still an elite offensive player, but even with a 1.045 OPS he can only do so much himself. The rest of the team is all hitting below league average save for Matt Adams in a part-time role and Howie Kendrick who is still posting a meager .315 OBP, but has delivered 10 extra base hits.
In Arizona, the offense is centered on Paul Goldschmidt. Unlike Harper, however, Goldy is a bit less of a one-man show. The D-Backs are getting good production from David Peralta and A.J. Pollock in the outfield.
Neither team is loaded with offensive depth now with several players off to slow starts and notable injuries. In Arizona, Jake Lamb and Steven Souza are the key players on the shelf. While both are hindered, Arizona has done a better job pushing runs across at key times.
Probable Pitchers
Patrick Corbin take the mound on Saturday as, arguably, the NL’s best pitcher. The southpaw had a nice bounce back campaign last year, going 14-13 with a 4.03 ERA, but he’s taken a massive step forward in the early going of 2018.
Through five starts, Corbin is 4-0 with a 1.89 ERA. He’s notched a one-hit shutout and has struck out 48 in 33.1 innings of work. Perhaps just as impressive, Corbin has allowed 22 total base runners on 16 hits and six walks and boasts a 0.660 WHIP and 2.02 FIP proving his start is more than just luck.
Of course, five games is hardly a large enough sample size to project a full season of action, but five straight dominating starts is certainly enough to show Corbin is on a hot streak. Also, as a lefty, Corbin matches up better against Bryce Harper, the Nat’s biggest threat in the order. Of course, other than Harper, this is a rather righty-heavy lineup.
While the Nationals get to face Corbin, the D-Backs get a bit of an easier opponent in Jeremy Hellickson.
The 31-year old right-hander has had a solid career. He’s amassed 10.9 WAR and a 69-69 record with a 4.12 ERA. Those numbers aren’t great, but they paint the picture of a dependable mid-to-back of the rotation arm.
Hellickson was just that as recently as 2016 when he led the Phillies’ rotation. He put together a 12-10 season and 3.71 ERA for the losing squad. It was his third full season with a sub-4 ERA.
The righty is not a strikeout pitcher and is averaging just 6.6 per nine innings. He needs to induce weak contact and keep the ball on the ground. He can do that when he’s on. When he’s not, the flyballs sour, just like his home run rate. He gave up 35 homers in 2017 in route to a 5.43 ERA.
So far this year, Hellickson has made two starts since getting the spot over A.J. Cole. He’s tossed 10 innings, allowing 10 hits and five runs.
A former Diamondback, Hellickson has faced Arizona four times, going 0-3.
Live Betting
Perhaps the biggest difference in the first place Diamondbacks and fourth place Nationals through the game’s first month is in the bullpen.
Sean Doolittle has been good—but not great—in the closer’s role. The biggest issue, however, has been getting to him.
Brandon Kintzler and Ryan Madson were brought in midseason last year, along with Doolittle, to stabilize the pen. They did just that, but they’ve been anything but stable here in 2018. Dave Martinez has been mixing and matching a bit and has yet to find a combination that works.
Washington’s relief core has been a major question. Arizona’s has been the answer.
The D-Backs have been getting good outings regardless who is called upon. Archie Bradley is filthy as ever, Brad Boxberger has seized the closer role and even guys like Andrew Chafin, T.J. McFarland and Jorge De La Rosa are holding the opponent down when called upon.
In the rotation and the lineup, these teams are closer than the records would indicate, but in the bullpen is where they diverge.
MLB Pick
Corbin has been filthy in his first handful of starts. The Diamondbacks have a strong collection of bullpen arms behind him and enough offense, particularly against the former D-Back, to get the win.
Look for Arizona to put up a couple early runs on Hellickson and add on against a Washington bullpen that’s had its share of early season struggles.
Meanwhile, count on Corbin to pitch well, again, going six or seven strong before the bullpen closes out the game with relative ease. The Nationals have some good bats and could score a few runs, but not enough to get the win.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks 6, Nationals 3
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
