Friday night, the Chicago Cubs kick off their second home series of the young season, playing host to the Atlanta Braves. Chicago has gotten off to an inconsistent start to the year with injuries, weather and rocky performances intertwined with a few glimpses into just how good this team could be. On the other side, the Braves have shown some early progress. Can they sustain it against Yu Darvish and the Cubs on Friday afternoon?
First pitch for the game between the Braves and Cubs is scheduled for Friday, April 13, 2018, at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The matchup will be shown live on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
Last year, the Cubs took six of seven against the Braves, outscoring them by 15 runs over the seven contests.
After struggled against the Marlins and Reds, the Cubs stepped up their game against a more difficult Brewers’ team. Chicago just needed a few games to knock off the rust.
The bullpen has been perhaps the most consistent part of the Cubs’ team since Game 1. Brandon Morrow already has two saves as the team’s closer, Justin Wilson, Steve Cishek, Carl Edwards and Pedro Strop form a great, deep pen.
The Braves have played better baseball than expected so far. The offense is a big part of that, but the bullpen has also performed above expectations. A.J. Minter, Dan Winkler, Sam Freeman and Peter Moylan have combined for 18.1 innings without an earned run allowed.
Probable Pitchers
Finally making his Wrigley Field debut as a Cub, Darvish comes into the game off a very strong outing, holding a solid Milwaukee Brewers’ offense to a single run over six frames.
Darvish struck out nine batters in the outing, walking one and allowing just two hits. The effective, 94 pitch outing, came right after a disappointing debut that saw Darvish last just 4.1 innings, tossing 102 pitches. In the debut, a barren Miami Marlins’ team tagged him for five runs.
Coming into the year, there was some concerns given how badly he threw against the Astros in the World Series, but he’s had a strong career and proved he was healthy. After his last start, it appears those struggles are in the rearview mirror.
At his best, Darvish is a dynamic strikeout pitcher, averaging 11 strikeouts per game in his career. He’s never faced the Braves in his career.
For the Braves, Anibal Sanchez is the likely starter. Atlanta has yet to announce the starter, but it would be normal rest for the veteran right-hander, filling in the spot for the injured Luiz Gohara.
The 34-year old had a successful first start, holding the Rockies to two runs over five innings at Coors Field. He’s allowed two total runs on eight innings over eight innings in 2018.
While the small sample size from 2018 is encouraging, Sanchez hasn’t been an effective Major League pitcher since 2014.
Last year, Sanchez was 3-7 with a 6.41 ERA in 105.1 innings and he has an ERA of 5.87 in 153.1 innings in 2016.
In 2013, Sanchez was the AL ERA leader with a 2.57 ERA, but since has had trouble with command. His walk and home run rates have jumped. He’s already allowed a homerun this year and has walked five batters, indicating that the command really hasn’t improved.
Live Betting
The Braves’ offense has started off at a torrid pace, scoring 6.2 runs a game over the first 10 games. The team has 11 homers and a team OPS of .786.
Two of the bigger surprises for Atlanta have been Ryan Flaherty and Preston Tucker, two late acquisitions.
Flaherty has gotten the bulk of the at bats at third, hitting .375 with a .474 OBP. Tucker has already hit two homers and has a .333 average as the third outfielder.
Tucker is one of four Braves players to already have multiple home runs. Ozzie Albies leads the team with three bombs. The other two with two bombs are Nick Markakis and Freddie Freeman. Freeman’s strong bat isn’t a surprise. Markakis is a professional hitter himself, but power isn’t typically his game.
The Braves’ lineup is solid with young guys like Albies and Dansby Swanson along with veteran hitters like Freeman, Markakis and Ender Inciarte, but the pace they’ve started the season isn’t sustainable.
The Cubs’ offense is better, on paper, than the Braves, but hasn’t swung the bats as well through the first two weeks.
Anthony Rizzo is now on the DL after a slow start, taking away one of the important middle of the order bats. Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ and Albert Almora are all hitting under the Mendoza Line.
Kris Bryant has hit well with a .324 average with a couple bombs. Addison Russell and Willson Contreras bave both hit well, too, but the rest of the order hasn’t found their midseason forms.
MLB Pick
Darvish is back on the mound in Chicago for the first time since Game 3 of the NLCS when he helped lead the visiting Dodgers to a win.
His first start with the Cubs was rough, but he bounced back his last time out and is primed for a good outing in his first start at Wrigley in a Cubs’ uniform.
While the Braves’ offense has been good early on, it’s unreasonable to expect players like Flaherty and Tucker to sustain this level of success.
Look for Chicago to score a few early runs off Sanchez. The righty is a shell of his former self and the Cubs’ bats are too good to struggle for too long. With an early lead, the Cubbies should cruise to victory over Atlanta behind a strong start by Darvish and good pitching in out of a deep bullpen.
MLB Odds: Cubs 5, Braves 2
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