This weekend will feature a big series between the NL East and NL Central leaders in what could be a postseason preview. For now, it’s just a series between the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers, but will serve as a statement series with Saturday’s game broadcast nationally. Both these teams are starting to get more national air time as they continue playing well. We’ll see which can thrive on the big stage Saturday with the Braves turning to veteran Anibal Sanchez to make the start and the Brewers have Brett Suter lined up to take the ball.
First pitch for the game between the Braves and Brewers is scheduled for Saturday, July 7, 2018, at 4:10 p.m. ET at Miller Park. The matchup will be shown on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
It’s been a bit bumpy lately for the Braves. They just lost two of three against the Yankees and have series losses to the Reds and Orioles not long before that. Sprinkled in there, however, is a series sweep of the Cardinals and the Braves are still 6-7 over their last 13 games. That’s not great, but it shows a team able to hang around even when things aren’t all going right.
The Brewers, on the other hand, come into this series having swept the Twins and are 9-5 in their last 14 games.
Right now, these are two of the best teams in the NL and quite evenly matched though they certainly have different strengths.
Offensively, for instance, the Braves have outscored the Brewers by over 50 runs, but have hit 13 fewer homers as the Brew Crew possess greater power, but the Braves have a .328 OBP compared to Milwaukee’s measly .314 mark.
Milwaukee misses Lorenzo Cain who is on the DL, but he could come off for this game. He’s been a big part of the Brewer offense with a .394 OBP. He and Christian Yelich are two players bucking the trend of low OBP amongst Brewer players.
Long with Cain and Yelich, Jesus Aguliar, Eric Thames and Travis Shaw make up most of the offense. The Brewers have a number of holes in the order, none more obvious than their struggles in the middle of the infield. Along with the pitcher, that leaves three posts in the order that are routine outs.
The Braves’ offense is much deeper, thus the better production. Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte are the only two starters with an OPS+ south of 115 while neither are having great years, Swanson’s far exceeding the production of the Brewers’ options at short while Inciarte is at least providing speed with 23 steals and can make things happen if he gets on base.
Probable Pitchers
Saturday’s pitching matchup is an interesting one to be sure. Anibal Sanchez is as big of a surprise as there is in the game this year while Brent Suter has been up-and-down this year, coming of a couple less than stellar outings.
In Suter’s last two starts, he’s combined to go 11 innings, allowing nine runs on 15 hits. He did strikeout 11 in those two games with only two walks so he was keeping the ball in the zone, but not doing a great job of getting outs when he needed to get them.
Overall, Suter’s been one of the least consistent starters in a rotation clearly in need of another arm. It’s not the most favorable matchup for the Brew Crew, but Suter’s still a capable big league arm with an 8-5 record and 4.53 ERA to go along with a 1.189 WHIP and 4.23 FIP.
The 28-year old southpaw is still only his first full season at the big league level. He’s now through 93.1 innings this year, the most in his career. That bears watching, especially given his rough last couple starts.
Suter has only faced the Braves once in his career, pitching two scoreless innings in relief.
As for Sanchez, his career was seemingly over after he was finally let go by the Tigers. After leading the AL in ERA in 2013, it’s been a constant regression for the veteran right-hander. His 6.41 ERA and 3-7 record last year as he split time in the bullpen and rotation for the Tigers seemed to spell the end; but as it turns out, he just needed a change of scenery.
The righty is 3-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in ten games—nine starts—this year. He’s only pitched 53 innings so he’s limited to five or six frames a game, but he’s looked good while he’s been on the bump.
The walk rate is where it normally is, but his home run rate and batting average against are way down. He’ snot striking out many more batters, but is doing a better job keeping the ball on the ground and inducing weak contact.
Sanchez is coming off a quality start against the Yankees in his latest start, going six innings and allowing on three runs. He didn’t get the win, but the Braves improved to 6-4 in games he’s appeared and 6-3 in his starts.
The start against the Yankees also represents Sanchez’s highest pitch count this season at 98, leading further credence to the idea he’s not going to go deep in this game.
Live Betting
The Braves have the hotter starting pitcher right now and the better offense by a sizeable margin. Atlanta’s also got a good defense, leaving the bullpen as the only place that the Brewers can seemingly have the edge in this game.
Milwaukee, of course, has one of the best pens in the game. Josh Hader will be an All-Star and to this point in the season should be in the Cy Young conversation despite pitching just 44.2 innings. He’s struck out 83 with a 1.21 ERA and 1.17 FIP. He’s not allowing hardly any base runners and has allowed just two homers.
While Hader is a versatile reliever able to pitch multiple innings and come in for the important outs, whenever they may be, he’s just one arm. The Brewers have much more. Corey Knebel was one of the best closers last year. He’s had a few hiccups here and there, but is still an excellent closer. Jeremy Jeffress is a former closer himself and has thrived in the setup role with a 1.07 ERA and six wins. With Dan Jennings, Jacob Barnes and Taylor Williams, the list goes on and on with quality late inning options.
The options are less impressive in Atlanta and the team’s bullpen ERA is 4.21, more than a run higher than Milwaukee’s, but most of the issue comes in the middle innings. Arodys Vizcaino has been better than anticipated in the closer’s role with a 1.76 ERA while A.J. Minter, Dan Winkler and even Shane Carle and Jesse Biddle represent solid options for Brian Snitker.
MLB Pick
Look for a great series with the Braves and Brewers squaring off a well fought game on Saturday’s nationally televised game.
Sanchez is throwing the ball better right now than Suter. Look for him to get the Braves another quality start, going six strong and handing the ball over to the bullpen with a lead.
From there, the pen will be tasked with holding the lead while the offense looks to add on. Look for this to be a close game and while the Braves’ pen doesn’t stack up with the Brewers, if given the lead, it doesn’t have to, it just has to hold it.
Between Vizcaino, Minter and Winkler, the Braves pen should close the door on the Brew Crew and come away with a narrow victory on the road.
MLB Odds: Braves 5, Brewers 3
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