The Atlanta Braves have all but clinched the NL East title for the second straight season, but the Philadelphia Phillies’ postseason hopes continue to hang in the balance as the two teams take on each other in a four game series with the finale on Thursday night. Can the Phillies get the win at home against the divisional leader or will the Braves push Philadelphia’s postseason dreams further out of focus?
First pitch for the game between the Braves and Phillies is scheduled for Thursday, September 12, 2019, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. The matchup will be shown on TBS.
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Odds Analysis
The Braves enter their series with the Phillies having won 15 more games and boasting a much better second half record.
While Philadelphia has been barely over-.500 since the All-Star break, the Braves have gone 35-18. That’s a .660 winning percentage.
More recently, Atlanta has won six of their seven games this month and are 25-10 since the start of August. They’re also 9-1 in their last 10 games.
For comparison, the Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
Philadelphia, however, does have home field advantage in this one and they have held their own against the Braves this season with the two teams splitting their first 12 head-to-head matchups. Of course, even that information favors Atlanta if you examine closer.
The Phillies have a 41-31 record at home, but the Braves have a 42-27 road record. And as for the head-to-head series, since the first three games of the season, the Braves are 6-3 against the Phillies.
Probable Pitchers
This game will pin a 28-year old right-hander and the Braves’ longest tenured starter against a 30-year old southpaw with just nine total starts and 50.1 innings pitched in a Phillies’ uniform.
For the Braves, the starter in this one is Julio Teheran who has quietly had a very nice season. Guys like Mike Soroka and Max Fried have gotten more attention—and rightly so—but Teheran has been the backbone of this rotation.
The righty leads the Braves in games and innings with 30 starts and 163.1 innings of work. He’s pitched to a 10-8 record with a 3.31 ERA. His FIP is a bit inflated at 4.30 thanks in part to a high walk rate, but Teheran has shown the ability to work around those free passes. He has a low batting average against, leaving him with a still solid 1.292 WHIP. He’s also been very good at keeping the ball in the park, sporting a rare sub-1 HR:9 ratio.
Teheran did struggle a bit out of the gate this season but has a 2.67 ERA in his last 23 starts. Going back to the beginning of the season, Teheran’s only start against the Phillies this year came on Opening Day where he allowed three runs in a short five-inning stint. He’ll try and last longer while pitching better on Thursday night.
With Teheran on the hill, it’s a favorable matchup for Atlanta to get the win, particularly with Drew Smyly his counterpart for the Phillies. After all, the Braves are 19-11 in Teheran’s starts and have won nine of his last 12.
On to Smyly, the veteran southpaw has had a rough season, pitching to a combined 6.20 ERA with a 1.603 WHIP and 6.44 FIP in 101.2 innings. He’s allowed 29 home runs and walked 51 batters this season.
All those numbers are concerning, but its important to remember, before this season Smyly’s last start came in 2016. It’s been a long road back from injury and it was rough early on. So rough, in fact, the Rangers released him, and he bounced around a bit.
Since landing the Phillies, however, Smyly’s been a much more reliable starter. The lefty is 3-1 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.291 WHIP in 50.1 innings through nine starts for Philadelphia.
Most notably, Smyly has been able to cut both his walk rate and home run rate in half. He’s still giving up more homers than the Phillies would like, but he’s found more success overall.
Smyly is coming off a seven-inning shutout against the Mets in his last start, his second straight strong performance.
Live Betting
Looking at the actual rosters, the Braves—as you’d expected based on their respective records—appear to edge out the Phillies is nearly all facets of the game.
At the plate, Atlanta has scored the second most runs in the NL behind only the Dodgers. They’ve got a .795 team OPS and boast three players with at least 36 homers a piece with Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, and Ronald Acuna Jr. With Smyly’s issues with the home run ball, that’ could play huge.
Beyond those three superstars, the Braves also have a rather balanced lineup with Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, and more. On top of that, with the expanded rosters, the Braves also have added guys like Billy Hamilton as excellent bench pieces. Hamilton could serve as a key pinch runner or defensive replacement late.
Even in the bullpen the Braves are set. The pen had struggled a bit immediately after the trade deadline with the newly acquired guys struggling, but the unit has seemingly come together of late. Shane Greene is starting to turn the corner while Luke Jackson, Sean Newcomb, Mark Melancon and others add to the mix.
The Phillies likely have a better option in the ninth inning where Hector Neris has proven himself well, but the rest of the pen is a question with so many key injuries.
At the plate for the Phillies Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto are the top options, none come close to the type of OPS+ Freeman or Donaldson have put up this season.
MLB Pick
Look for the Braves to topple the home team in this one, taking Smyly deep a couple times early in the game to grab the lead. From there, Atlanta has the roster to navigate to a win.
While the Atlanta bullpen isn’t amongst the tops in the game, they’ve been throwing well lately and should be able to close the door against a Phillies’ offense that has some nice pieces but doesn’t quite stack up to the Braves’ bats.
The Braves are the better team. Look for them to show why in this series finale on Thursday.
MLB Odds: Braves 6, Phillies 4
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