The Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals meet up for the middle game of a three-game weekend series on Saturday in a nationally televised game. Both the Cardinals and Braves find themselves in the middle of contention here as the midway point to the season draws near. This game—and series—could be a playoff preview for two historic teams who are looking to get back to October baseball. In this game, the pitching matchup could feature a couple exciting youngsters with Luke Weaver against one of the Braves youngsters coming up to replace Brandon McCarthy.
First pitch for the game between the Braves and Cardinals is scheduled for Saturday, June 30, 2018, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. The matchup will be shown on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
The Braves come into their series against the Cardinals having dropped back-to-back series against the Orioles and the Reds. The recent struggles don’t inspire confidence as these are teams a first place team like Atlanta should beat.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 4-1 in their last five games, but that improved play comes on the heels of a 2-8 stretch. The return to Busch Stadium certainly helped them win the three-game series against the Indians and they’ll be at home again to face the Braves on Saturday. St. Louis is a much better team at home, though Atlanta does well on the road.
Atlanta’s biggest strength comes from its offense. The team has scored more runs than any other team in the National League thanks to an MVP type season from Freddie Freeman and All-Star effort by Ozzie Albies and Nick Markakis.
Freeman has a .318/.408/.548 slash line with 15 dingers and 54 RBIs. He’s hit six homers so far in June as he’s seen a bit of a power surge this month. He’s driven in 14 here in June. Johan Camargo leads the team in RBIs in June with 17 as he’s played great since taking over third base full time.
Albies has regressed a bit, but is still providing good pop with 10 doubles. Markakis continues to hit with a .308 average in June while top-to-bottom the team continues to have a different hero each night. With Ronald Acuna Jr. back on the roster now, too, the offense is now even deeper.
In St. Louis, June has been a great month for Marcell Ozuna. He’s hitting .347 with seven homers and 21 RBIs on the month and has been keeping pace with Jose Martinez and Matt Carpenter who have a 1.049 and 1.067 OPS respectively this month. The trio of sluggers have combined for 22 home runs and 56 RBIs in the month. The rest of the offense hasn’t performed.
Tommy Pham has slowed considerably after a good start while Dexter Fowler, Kolten Wong and Jedd Gyorko continue to be essentially non-factors most nights. The Braves certainly have more offensive depth right now as the Cardinals could use an extra bat to help lengthen the lineup.
Probable Pitchers
It was supposed to be a talented youngster squaring off against a grizzled vet in this pitching matchup, but the Braves have sent Brandon McCarthy to the DL and will instead turn to one of the young arms on the farm to fill in for the injured righty.
In theory, the Braves could bump up Mike Foltynewicz to pitch on regular reason Saturday, but they seem likely to keep him for the series finale.
In that case, it seems the team will promote one of their young guns for the spot start. Max Fried seems like an obvious choice as he’s on schedule to start Saturday for Triple-A. There are other options, but he’s the favorite to make the start.
Fried has been up and down a few times over the last two years and is 1-3 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in 37 big league innings. He’s down some good stuff in the Majors, but has also struggled some with command, walking 19.
This year, Fried has made five appearances, including one start where he went five innings allowing just one run against the Mets in a double header. He did walk four in that start, however, and a team like the Cardinals are much more equipped to make him pay for those walks than New York.
Looking at his minor league numbers, Fried is just 2-4 with a 4.29 ERA in nine starts at Triple-A Gwinnett. He’s also just 18-13 lifetime in his minor league career with a 4.19 ERA as his stuff has often been better than his results.
Looking to out duel the Braves’ rookie, Luke Weaver will make his 17th start of the year for the Cardinals, bringing a 4-6 record and 4.59 ERA to the table.
Weaver’s not lived up to his strong 2017 season as the 24-year old right-hander has had a few issues adjusting back to the hitters.
After showing some strong signs in May, he’s had a rough June with a 1-1 record and 5.19 ERA in 26 innings of work.
On the year, Weaver has yet to record a win at home, going 0-3. He’s pitched better at Busch Stadium, however, according to his ERA at 4.12.
Weaver cannot be counted on to go deep in the game. He’s failed to get out of the fifth in six straight games though he did go 5.2 innings in his last start, holding a good Brewers team to two runs while striking out nine in route to the win.
Weaver is just 1-4 in his last eight starts, but the team is 4-4 in that span and 8-8 when he’s taken the ball this season.
Live Betting
The injury to Arodys Vizcaino hurts the Braves. He’s eligible to come off the DL on Sunday but will still be sidelined on Saturday regardless of his status.
The Braves system is loaded with talented young arms and some have filtered into the rotation and the bullpen, but most have yet to fully break into the big leagues. As a result, the bullpen does have a few journeyman arms like Peter Moylan and Sam Freeman.
Even with Vizcaino out, however, there are some good young arms in the pen, too, including A.J. Minter who is getting the save looks. Shan Carle, Dan Winkler and Jesse Biddle have been more or less reliable, but Atlanta could use an extra arm or two.
The same can be said about the Cardinals. Both teams sit in the middle of the pack in terms of bullpen ERA this season.
The Cardinals have gotten great results from Bud Norris and Jordan Hicks to help cover some serious bullpen issues. Norris, however, has had some issues here in June including two blown saves. Hicks has a blown save of his own this month.
St. Louis needs Greg Holland to get back to form. He’s looked better his last few times out and has struck out five with just one hit in four innings. Perhaps he’s back, but the team will need to see more to fully trust the veteran closer in late game situations again.
MLB Pick
Look for a higher scoring game on Saturday as neither Fried nor Weaver inspire too much confidence given the inexperience of one and recent trends of the other.
They both offer plenty of upside, but don’t look for either to go too deep in the game, leaving the bullpens to ultimately get the decisions in this game.
In the end, look for the Braves’ NL leading offense to get to the Cardinals’ bullpen. Acuna could be an extra spark much like he was after his original call up to the Majors. Atlanta’s pen, meanwhile, isn’t exactly lockdown without Arodys Vizcaino, but count on the group to piece it together to ultimately grab the victory on the road.
This Braves’ team is for real and has a few less holes than the Cardinals right now.
MLB Odds: Braves 7, Cardinals 5
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