The Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals are two of three teams battling for the top spot in the NL East. These two clubs will meet in the Nation’s Capital on Wednesday night following a doubleheader on Tuesday. The Braves have found success in this matchup this year, winning seven of their first 12 meetings and also have the upper hand in the standings when they send Mike Foltynewicz to the hill in Wednesday’s game looking to extend their lead on the Nats.
First pitch of the game between the Braves and Nationals is scheduled for Wednesday, August 8, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The matchup will be televised nationally on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
These two teams will play a double header on Tuesday, leaving both teams a bit tired going into Wednesday night.
The biggest area of impact after any double feature is the bullpen. The Braves and Nationals are both likely to at least somewhat deplete their bullpens on Tuesday, leaving fewer arms available on Wednesday.
The Nationals are already dealing with a depleted bullpen since booting Shawn Kelley and Brandon Kintzler in trades over the last week. With Sean Doolittle on the DL, Kelvin Herrera is the closer and he’s left without much help.
Herrera struggled when he first got to Washington, but has started to throw the ball a bit better. He’s still produced a dismal 6.10 FIP in his 16.2 innings with the Nationals.
Beyond Herrera, there’s an aging Ryan Madson and a spotty Sammy Solis, giving Dave Martinez little confidence. Names like Matt Grace, Justin Miller and Wander Suero will play bigger in this series than Nationals fans may want.
Meanwhile, in the Braves’ bullpen, newly added Brad Brach and Jonny Venters have both looked great in their first few appearances. And while Atlanta also has its closer on the DL, A.J. Minter has filled in admirably with Shane Carle, Dan Winkler and Jessee Biddle all posting sub-3 ERAs setting him up.
Washington has the better bullpen ERA on the year, but with their pen in a state of flux and the Braves added depth, things even out.
Probable Pitchers
While Tommy Milone is coming off a seven-inning, one-run outing against the Mets, confidence isn’t too high in him as he makes yet another start in place of Stephen Strasburg especially as he matches up with the Braves’ ace, Mike Foltynewicz.
Milone is a 31-year old journeyman southpaw who came up initial with the Nationals in 2011 before going to four other teams and jumping between the Majors and the Minors during that time.
In his first two starts with Washington this year, he’s 1-0 with four runs allowed in 12 innings. He’s also struck out 15 which is way out of character for his career where he’s got a 6.6 strikeout per nine inning ration over 148 big league appearances.
In his first two starts, Milone has not only racked up the strikeouts, he’s also yet to issue a walk and has allowed just a single home run. All of those stats are against his career norms. Don’t look for those numbers to continue on Wednesday. After all, the Braves are a much different opponent than the Marlins or Mets who he faced in his first two starts.
While pitching for Triple-A Syracuse before his promotion, the started 20 games and was just okay in those starts, going 7-4 with a 4.19 ERA.
So, while the Nationals hope to get another surprising outing from their journeyman southpaw, the Braves have their best on the bump.
Foltynewicz was an All-Star this year in a break out season. He’s just 8-7, but has a 3.04 ERA and 1.183 WHIP in 118.1 innings of work. He’s posted a 10.5 strikeout per nine inning ratio and although he’s still walking a few too many batters, he’s done well at getting the big out when he’s needed it.
Folty did hit a rough patch in July when he went just 2-3 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.376 WHIP. One of those losses came against the Nationals when he allowed four runs on nine hits and three walks in just 5.2 innings of work.
On the bright side, however, the Braves’ right-hander looked better in his first start in August, holding the Mets to two runs in six inning. He’s also had three other starts against the Nationals this year with better results than the one he had on July 22.
In the other three starts, he’s notched a completely game shutout and has allowed four total runs—three earned—in 19.1 innings. He’s allowed 11 hits, five walks and struck out 22 in that three game span.
Live Betting
Washington failed to define itself as a buyer or seller at the non-waiver trade deadline and thus this team continues to sit on the edge of contention.
Over their last 11 games, they’ve seemingly made a step in the right direction, going 8-3 in those games and have won five of six since the trade deadline passed. While that’s all great and a 25-run outburst on the Mets on July 31 gives the offenses some optimism, the team still scored one run or fewer in two of its last three games and four of its last eight.
The big run outburst helped raise the Nationals offensive numbers recently. Bryce Harper has raised his average recently though it still sits at .234. His 26 homers leads the team and others like Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Matt Adams and Mark Reynolds offer their own pop.
Catcher remains a black hole in the order. Matt Wieters is hitting below the Mendoza Line while Spence Kiboom isn’t hitting much better. Still, with Daniel Murphy heating up and Soto, Harper and Adam Eaton patrolling the outfield most games the rest of the order is providing at—or close to—league average offense, or better.
While the Nationals have been playing better baseball overall, playing the Mets, Marlins and Reds could play into that. The Braves come into their series with Washington having won six of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Braves’ offense has been providing a bit more consistency all year.
The Braves have a legitimate MVP candidate in Freddie Freeman along with four other starters all posting a 115 OPS+ or better. And now, the team also has Adam Duvall who can play against the southpaws in place of Ender Inciarte with Ronald Acuna shifting over to centerfield. Duvall isn’t having a good year, but he’s a good bat against southpaws like Milone. In his career, Duvall has a homer in three at-bats against Milone.
MLB Pick
Folty’s had some issues of late, but look for him to parlay his last strong outing into another good performance against a Nationals’ team he’s fared well against overall this year.
Look for the Braves to get six strong from their ace and then turn the ball over to a solid bullpen to close the door and get the win.
Meanwhile, the Braves are a much tougher offense for Milone to face than the Mets or Marlins. Look for Atlanta to get to the journeyman lefty. He’s been a Four-A player his whole career and is unlikely to sustain his early success this year.
Behind Milone in this game, Dave Martinez will need to be weary of bullpen usage with the doubleheader the day before and may give him a bit too long of a leash.
Count on the Braves to jump out to an early lead and ride that to a win.
MLB Odds: Braves 7, Nationals 4
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