The Nation’s Capital was the center of the baseball world this past week, but eyes will remain on Washington D.C. as the season resumes with the Washington Nationals hosting the Atlanta Braves in a best of three series. Important for the dynamics of the NL East, Washington will be trying to climb back in the division race with the Braves do their best to keep the Nationals down as they battle with the Phillies for the top spot in the division.
First pitch of the three-game weekend series between the Braves and Nationals begins on Friday, July 20, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The two teams meet again on Saturday night and Sunday afternoon with all three games broadcast locally.
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Odds Analysis
These two teams have already met 10 times this season with the Braves winning six of those ten contests and outscoring the Nationals by nine runs.
That would seemingly give Atlanta an edge in this series. Plus, having the better record would be another plus in the Atlanta column, but the Braves haven’t been playing well. The lost eight of 11 headed into the break and finished up their last road trip losing five of six.
The Braves are still over-.500 on the road, but playing a motivated Nationals team in D.C. immediately after the team hosted the All-Star game is a hit of a task.
Of course, the Nationals as team are hovering at .500 and going nowhere fast. They’re two games below-.500 at home with a better record on the road though they did take three of four in their last home series.
Still, this is a team that’s lost five of eight going into the break and while that’s a bit better than Atlanta, it’s not enough to overcome the five game worse record or 4-6 record head-to-head.
Probable Pitchers
The pitching matchup in this series culminates on Sunday afternoon when the two All-Stars face off as NL All-Star starter Max Scherzer takes the mound for the hometown Nationals against Mike Foltynewicz of the Braves.
Prior to that, however, the Braves have Anibal Sanchez and Sean Newcomb lined up for Friday and Saturday with Stephen Strasburg set to come off the DL for the Nationals on Friday and Gio Gonzalez in line for Saturday.
For Game 1, the matchup certainly leans in the Nationals’ favor. Sanchez has resurrected his career from near extinction with the Braves and pitched well. He’s 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in 12 games this season and has thrown 65.2 innings.
The 34-year old right-hander has three quality starts so far in July and has allowed just two runs in 12.2 innings over his last two outings. Those outings came against good teams, too, in the Brewers and Diamondbacks.
In two appearances against Washington this year, Sanchez has tossed 10 innings, allowing two runs—both unearned—while giving up just three hits and a walk.
On the other side of this matchup, Strasburg will be getting the start on his 30th birthday. He’s got better numbers in his career than Sanchez, but hasn’t been quite as strong on the year. The Nationals, in fact, are just 6-7 when he as the ball and he’s 6-6 with a 3.46 ERA.
In two outings against the Braves this year, Strasburg is 1-1 with one start where he allowed four runs in 6.2 innings, though he did strikeout 10; and another where he went eight scoreless innings.
Of course, Strasburg hasn’t pitched at all in the Majors since June 8, but looked good in two rehab starts at Single-A Potomac.
Moving to Saturday’s matchup, Newcomb has had a nice season with an 8-5 record and 3.51 ERA. His FIP is a bit higher at 4.14, but generally he’s done well despite a high walk rate. He’s keeping the ball in the park and getting enough swing and miss to be effective.
Still, there is some concern for the youngster as he’s already thrown 105 innings fatigue could set in, but he’s had extra rest with the All-Star break. The Braves will hope that helps as the righty has struggled his last three times out. Going into July he had a 2.71 ERA, but has gone just 11.1 innings in three July starts with 13 runs—all earned—on 12 hits, 12 walks and just seven strikeouts.
Meanwhile, the Nationals’ Gonzalez has allowed just seven runs in 16 July innings and has been pitching much better than Newcomb of late.
The veteran southpaw is 6-6 overall while the Nationals as 10-9 in his starts. He has a very respectable 3.72 ERA. He went seven innings, giving up three runs in a Nationals win over the Braves in his only start against Atlanta this year.
That now brings us to the series finale with Scherzer and Folty on the bump.
While both are All-Stars, the numbers still favor Scherzer by a sizeable margin. The Nationals’ right-hander and three-time Cy Young Award winner is 12-5 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.899 WHIP. He leads the league in wins, WHIP, innings pitched, strikeouts and strikeout rate.
While his month of July hasn’t been his strongest month, he’s still got two quality starts in three outings and went seven innings and allowed four runs in the other start. He’s also held Atlanta to two runs in 14 innings this season.
As for Foltynewicz, the budding No.1 hurler is 7-5 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.111 WHIP. He’s more walk happy than Scherzer with 3.7 per nine innings, but is a good strikeout arm himself.
His overall season numbers aren’t that far off Scherzer though he lacks the track record. His numbers against Washington this year aren’t as good as Schezers against the Braves either as Folty has two starts against the Nationals, going 1-1 in those starts and allowing four runs—three earned—in 10.1 innings.
Live Betting
The records to this point in the season and head-to-head numbers favor the Braves, but the pitching matchups certainly work in the Nationals favor, but what about the rest of the team?
The Nationals will play the series without their closer in Sean Doolittle. With Dolittle on the DL, Kelvin Herrera is getting the closing chances. He’s experienced and a good arm, but he was acquired as a setup man for a reason. The team needed more depth in the bullpen and now that depth is depleted for this series.
Washington does still have some good relief arms, but so does Atlanta. The Braves are without Arodys Vizaino, their closer, too. Still Shane Carle, A.J. Minter, Dan Winkler, and Jesse Biddle are some young, high-upside arms that can deal.
Offensively, the Braves have outscored the Nationals on the season and have three All-Star Game representatives in the lineup including Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Nick Markakis.
This is a good, deep offensive team and lineup. Freeman is a legitimate MVP candidate with a .315/.405/.533 slash line he’s the cornerstone of the offense, but Albies is a nice power bat at a non-power position, Markakis is a great hitter and youngster like Johan Camargo, Ronald Acuna and Dansby Swanson are doing more than enough to deepen the lineup and provide a threat top to bottom.
For the Nationals, they’re starting to get healthy, but Daniel Murphy isn’t hitting, Matt Wieters hasn’t been a good offensive catcher in a couple years and even guys like Trea Turner are putting up some okay numbers, but aren’t hitting consistently.
Perhaps the biggest disappointment has been Bryce Harper. The slugger was supposed to be the offensive leader of the team, but he’s hitting .214 and expanding his zone. He did win the Home Run Derby which was a good sign, but then proceeded to strikeout twice in the All-Star Game. He’s lost at the plate and while he will run into one from time-to-time, he’s not what the team needs from its cornerstone bat.
There are pieces in the Nation’s Capital to be a good offensive club, but there’s not the consistency needed.
MLB Pick
July hasn’t been a fun month for the Braves as the Phillies have overtaken them in the NL East, but look for Atlanta to come out of the All-Star break with renewed energy after Nick Markakis and Ozzie Albies experienced their first All-Star Game.
Overall, the pitching match-ups, however, do favor the Nationals and the return of Strasburg is huge for a Washington team trying to get back on pace.
Being able to lineup both aces in this series gives the Nationals a huge upper hand. To make matters worse, the matchup on Wednesday would normally swing in Atlanta’s favor, but with Newcomb’s struggles that may also favor Washington.
While starting pitching is a huge part of winning a game—or series—it’s not the only factor and the Braves edge at the plate along with their good collection of young arms in the pen should allow them to steal at least one win in this series.
Look for the Nationals to take advantage of playing at home and having their aces on the bump to win the series, but Atlanta will keep the games close.
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