The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets wrap up the 2019 season with a three-game series in the Big Apple over the weekend. The Braves will be getting their final tune up before the post season while the Mets get set to ride off into the sunset. New York put up a good second half fight for a postseason spot, but ultimately came up short and will be playing for little more than pride this weekend.
The three-game weekend series between the Braves and Mets starts on Friday, September 27, 2019 at Citi Field, with first pitch slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. The regional broadcasting networks will provide television coverage for the first and last game of the series with Saturday night’s contest on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
The Mets, like most teams, are better at home, but the Braves have been an excellent road team this season, limiting New York’s location advantage.
In fact, Atlanta has a .605 winning percentage on the road this season to the Mets’ .573 home mark. And, while the Mets have had a nice second half with a .621 winning percentage, the Braves’ second half has been just a bit better.
The Braves have an edge over the Mets in most facets of the game and most measurements and it shows in their head-to-head record on the season. The Braves have beaten the Mets 11 of their 16 encounters this season, including sweeping their most recent series which was also in Citi Field.
Perhaps the biggest advantage for the Braves in this series, however, comes on the mound. We’ll discuss the starting pitching matchups later and those are a bit more even, but in the bullpen the Mets don’t come close to Atlanta.
The Braves added three bullpen arms at the trade deadline and all three struggled a bit out of the gate, but the pen is really coming together now. They’ve got plenty of depth and different looks to throw at the opposition. Mark Melancon has settled into the closer’s role, pushing Luke Jackson and Shane Greene into set up spots alongside a collection of quality arms.
The Mets, meanwhile, have two big name closers in Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia, but both have been terrible. Diaz has a 5.59 ERA, struggling in a huge way in the Big Apple. Familia has a 6.00 ERA.
While Justin Wilson and Seth Lugo offer a couple reliable arms for Mickey Callaway and the Mets, the options are far more limited than in Atlanta.
Probable Pitchers
With this being the final series of the year, the rotations for both teams are subject to change, but they lineup to send Marcus Stroman against Mike Foltynewicz in the series opener on Friday. Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard are likely to pitch the other two games for the Mets while Max Fried and Dallas Keuchel would be in turn for the final two for the Braves.
The Friday night matchup between Stroman and Foltynewicz is an interesting one. Stroman was an All-Star this season for the Blue Jays before being traded to New York. Folty was an All-Star last year before an injury-plagued season here in 2019.
Foltynewicz’s season hasn’t been the greatest this year with a 4.46 ERA and 4.87 FIP, but he’s still 8-5 due largely to his performance in the second half where he’s gone 6-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in nine starts spanning just about half of his 113 total innings for the season. He’s getting hot at the right time as the Braves will look for him to come up big in October.
On the other side of this matchup, Stroman was better in the first half—or at least with the Jays—than in the second half with the Braves. Still, he’s 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA in 10 starts for New York which isn’t too bad.
Stroman faced the Braves once since coming to the Mets and went 5.1 innings allowing three runs in that start. He’s also coming off a shortened 4.2 inning start but had been throwing well prior to that outing with two runs in 13.1 innings in his prior two starts combined.
In the final two games of the season, the Mets are likely to go with Matz and Syndergaard, two starters who have delivered inflated ERAs compared to expectations but were able to stay healthy most of the year, something that has plagued both.
Both pitchers will enter their final game looking for their 11th win of the season. Matz is at 10-10 while Syndergaard is 10-8. Matz has 4.37 ERA and 4.63 FIP while Syndergaard is the inverse, posting a better FIP at 3.63, but still ending with a 4.22 ERA.
In Syndergaard’s 30 starts, the Mets are 17-13, but he’s stumbling a bit to the finish line, perhaps due to fatigue, going 1-2 in his last three games and allowing four runs in each. That’s 12 runs in 15.2 innings.
As for Matz, he’s given up more than his share of home runs which is dangerous against a powerful team like the Braves. That said, he did well against Atlanta the last time he faced them, allowing just one run—on a solo bomb—in six innings of work.
Matz and Syndergaard will likely be tasked with trying to out-pitch Fried and Keuchel, respectively.
Fried has been one of the biggest positive surprises this season for the Braves. He’s leading the NL in wins and is 17-6 overall with a 4.11 ERA.
The young southpaw, however, has shown some signs of fatigue going a career high 162 innings. Nevertheless, his last start was a good one, going 5.1 shutout innings against the Giants. Still, the innings load makes Fried the possible odd-man out for the rotation in October.
As for Keuchel, he’s in midseason form now after a late start to the year. He’s 8-7 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.328 WHIP in 107.2 innings pitched. He’s thrown a quality start in seven of his last eight games.
Live Betting
At the plate, this series could be a fun one to watch. Both teams have some prolific hitters and some interesting milestones still achievable.
For the Mets, Pete Alonso is chasing Aaron Judge’s rookie home run record. The Mets slugging first-baseman has hit 50 bombs this season, setting the NL mark, but is two shy of Judge’s MLB record.
Beyond Alonso, the rest of the lineup is solid, too. Robinson Cano has heated up down the stretch as has Amed Rosario, giving the team a quality bat at nearly every position. Michael Conforto has a .839 OPS with 31 homers. J.D. Davis has shown a lot with a .884 OPS. Meanwhile, Jeff McNeil has been a beast. He’s moved around the diamond, but has been a doubles machine regardless of position with 37 two-baggers and 23 homers along with a .316 average and .914 OPS.
As for the Braves, they don’t have anyone with as many dingers as Alonso, but they could become the first team with three 40-home run bats. Ronald Acuna Jr. has already reached the milestone. He’s got 41 homers and is just a few steals away from becoming a 40-40 guy.
Freddie Freeman and Josh Donaldson are just a few homers shy each of the 40 mark. Freeman has 38 homers and 121 RBI while Donaldson has hit 37 bombs.
Between Acuna, Freeman, and Donaldson, the Braves have the best trio in baseball. With Ozzie Albies’ 23 homers and .296 average mixed in along with some other key players like Nick Markakis, Brian McCann, Matt Joyce and a slew of others, the Braves have a very deep offense.
MLB Pick
Look for some good offense moments and some long balls in this series. The offenses should keep both teams in each game, but the pitching likely gives the Braves the series. After all, Atlanta has owned the Mets this season regardless of venue.
Count on five or so quality innings from each of Folty, Fried and Keuchel with the bullpen taking on a sizeable load, but the Braves bullpen has plenty of depth and that is the ultimate difference in this series as the Mets’ pen are likely to enough runs for Atlanta to at least take this series. The Mets could steal a game as the Braves already have the division and their spot in October locked down.
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