After an opening series against the Twins in Baltimore, the Baltimore Orioles’ difficult schedule goes up a notch with a series against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park beginning on Monday. The second series of the season for the O’s features a mismatch on the mound with Chris Tillman and Charlie Morton slated to get their first starts of the season after very different results in 2017. Can Baltimore make some early noise against the reigning World Series champions or will Houston use this series to get out to an early lead in the AL West?
First pitch for the game between the Orioles and Astros is scheduled for Monday, April 2, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
The Orioles put together a strong spring training record and took Opening Day from the Twins despite a blown save in the ninth.
The ninth inning is a bit of a concern for Baltimore with Zach Britton on the shelf. The southpaw missed much of 2017 and the O’s bullpen took a sizeable step backwards after being one of the best units in 2016 behind Britton’s nearly unhittable season.
With Britton out, the Orioles’ bullpen is beatable. Brad Brach is a solid set up man, but had issues in the closer role in 2017 and showed those issues again on Opening Day. Darren O’Day and Mychal Givens are good set up men, but is that enough?
Houston’s pen is likely the weakest part of a championship caliber team. We saw Ken Giles implode in the postseason and there are lingering questions about how that will impact him this year. Chris Devenski and Will Harris are strong arms, but the Houston pen—in totality—was so questionable last October that A.J. Hinch nearly abandoned his late inning arms altogether.
Since then, the reigning champs added Joe Smith and Hector Rondon to deepen the pen. The Astros pen appears deeper than the Orioles so if either bullpen is overworked going into the series, it’s advantage Houston, but overall, there are questions for both units.
Probable Pitchers
To kick off this series, the Orioles are looking to their former ace in Chris Tillman to lead the way.
Tillman was the team’s Opening Day starter for several seasons before an injury prevented him from starting the 2017 on time. When he did eventually get on the mound, Tillman wasn’t the same pitcher.
Prior to 2017, Tillman had been a solid mid-rotation starter by most standards. The soon-to-be 30-year old had a 110 ERA+ in four of five seasons. He earned an All-Star berth in 2013 and amassed 56 wins in a four-year span.
After several years as a solid, dependable big-league arm, Tillman was unable to get on track in 2017. Due to injury, or decreased stuff, or several reasons, Tillman was 1-7 with a 7.84 ERA in 93 innings of work. He was yo-yoed between the rotation and the bullpen unable to perform in either role.
Overall, Tillman was just bad all last year. His FIP was 6.93 so his inflated ERA was hardly just bad luck. His walk rate jumped from a career mark of 3.4 per nine to 4.9. His home run rate more than doubled and his strikeout rate dropped. He wasn’t missing bats and the contact he was allowing was hard.
A rather poor showing in Spring Training did little to assuage the concerns for the Orioles and their fans, but the team gave him a guaranteed Major League deal and are counting on him returning to form. It may happen, but given how he looked this Spring, it seems highly unlikely to happen on Monday.
As for the Astros, they have a much more positive story toeing the rubber in Charlie Morton.
Morton was a stretch sign last offseason, getting a multi-year deal to the shock of a few other executives around the game. Houston was criticized for the move, but got the last laugh.
Morton went on to go 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA in 25 starts. He was worth nearly two WAR in 2017 after being a negative WAR player during the first nine years of his career.
The main question for Morton is can he replicate that success. It’s an outlier compared to the rest of his career—though the Astros did tweak his delivery and he did stay healthy, two things that undoubtedly played a role.
This spring, he wasn’t quite as good, but with a 4.91 ERA and no homers allowed, he—at least—was better than Tillman.
Live Betting
The Orioles and Astros both have potent offenses with home run power up and down the order. For Houston, however, it’s also accompanied by strong average hitters, good on-base percentage and some speed. Baltimore’s offense is a bit more one-dimensional.
In Houston, George Springer is leading off, but Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and others would all make quality leadoff hitters. In Baltimore, Chris Davis is taking on that role for now, the same Chris Davis that batted .214 last year and struck out 195 times in 128 games last year.
Top to bottom, the Astros put together quality at-bats which is not always the case for the O’s. They can look bad at the plate, but can also take care of business when a pitcher misses his spots.
Manny Machado and Jonathan Scoop are the keys to the offense, representing the best middle infield combo outside of Houston. Of course, the Astros can match—or top—Baltimore’s greatest strength with Altuve—the reigning AL MVP—and Carlos Correa.
Offensively, homers could fly on both sides if the starters miss their spots, but the Astros are the team better equipped to manufacture runs should the need arise.
MLB Pick
The Orioles have been an underdog team the last six years and save for last year, they’ve outperformed expectations.
The Birds have power in the lineup, a motivated Machado, a strong presence up the middle and a pretty talented bullpen, but the pitching matchup is not favorable in this one. The Orioles should be able to steal a game or two in this series on the road, but it won’t be on Monday.
Morton had a great year last year and the Houston bullpen—while maybe not as deep as the O’s is still well rested this early in the year. Meanwhile, the O’s cannot count on Tillman after a terrible 2017 and rocky Spring Training.
Look for Tillman’s control to be off, the Astros to take advantage and grab an early lead and run with it.
MLB Odds: Astros 8, Orioles 3
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
