It’s fitting that the city of Philadelphia would be featured in a nationally televised game on the Fourth of July, but this game may not be the most balanced of matchups as the Philadelphia Phillies continue their push for the postseason against the Baltimore Orioles in the finale of a brief two-game series. To make things more imbalanced, the Phillies send ace Aaron Nola to the hill to mystify the Birds who have yet to announce their starter for the contest.
First pitch for the game between the Orioles and Phillies is scheduled for Wednesday, July 4, 2018, at 4:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
We’re in the start of July and the Phillies have 21 more wins than the Orioles. That in itself highlights the massive disparity between these two clubs.
The Orioles are 24-59 as they struggle to compete day in and day out. They’re pitching and hitting have all been at the bottom of the league and they’re constantly in the midst of extending losing streaks.
They, however, will be going into the Phillies series off a win, topping the Angels 8-2 on Sunday. That, however, did come on the heels of a seven game losing streak. As bad as the O’s have been, they’ve been equally bat at home as on the road so playing in Philly shouldn’t make a difference though their 6-9 interleague record so far—while still just a .400 winning percentage—is much better than their overall numbers.
On the other side of this matchup, the Phillies have a .600 winning percentage in interleague play and just took three of four from the Nationals so they come into this series playing well. They’re 7-4 in their last 11 games despite playing Washington and the Yankees exclusively in that time. The Orioles will be nice reprieve for the Phillies. They’ll just need to avoid overlooking them and having a letdown series.
These two teams did meet once this year already, in Baltimore. One game was rained out, but the other ended in a Phillies, 4-1 victory.
Probable Pitchers
Regardless of who the Orioles send to the mound, the Phillies will have the starting pitching advantage on Wednesday as Aaron Nola has been one of the best starters in baseball this season.
Nola is currently 10-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.009 WHIP in 17 starts. He’s tossed 109 innings in those starts, showing he’s not only providing quality, but quantity, too.
This has been a break out season for the 25-year old right-hander. He pitched his first full season last year and was great with a 3.54 ERA, but has improved greatly from there. He’s pitching to a 2.77 FIP and has greatly lowered his WHIP by pitching to more contact. His strikeout numbers are down a bit in a season where strikeouts are soaring as he’s been able to induce weak contact early in counts and go deeper in games.
Nola’s also been able to keep the ball on the ground more and has allowed just six home runs despite pitching in a hitter friendly park. That will come into play against an O’s team that’s offense is focused so heavily on the long ball. The Birds have struggled creating rallies and manufacturing runs. They have a low team OBP and don’t do the little things to win games. That’s important against a pitcher like Nola.
The young righty is coming off a quality start where he allowed one run in 7.2 innings against the Nationals and has thrown six quality starts in his last seven games. The lone expectation came on the road against a much better hitting Brewers’ team.
In his young career, Nola has never faced the Orioles, but he has struggled a bit in interleague play so perhaps that’s a sliver of hope for the Birds. Nola’s 3-5 with a 4.86 ERA in 10 interleague starts.
Nola’s counterpart on Wednesday hasn’t been announced and is up in the air at the moment. It could be David Hess who gets the start. He looked good early on, but has a 5.94 ERA and 2-5 record in nine starts. His FIP of 6.11 is even worse as he’s got a 1.37 strikeout to walk ratio and 1.532 WHIP.
If not Hess, Miguel Castro could get the start. He’s been pitching in relief this year but was looked at as a starter in the spring. He’s been a multi-inning reliever and has a 2.90 ERA, but if he does start, he won’t be allowed to go too deep as he’s not stretched out. Another option would be Mike Wright who has looked good lately, but has a 5.08 ERA on the season. Of course, he’s been in the pen, too, so he’s not likely to go deep in the game if chosen either.
Live Betting
The Phillies are clearly the better pitching team and Nola has a huge edge over whoever gets the start for the Orioles. While the Phillies’ bullpen isn’t world class—and is also dealing with some injuries—they have the edge over Baltimore there, too.
The return of Pat Neshek helps provide some veteran depth in the pen and a different look for opposing hitters. Alongside Seranthony Dominguez, Tommy Hunter, Victor Arano and others, there’s enough to get by against the O’s. The pen does need an upgrade, but its deep enough.
As for the Orioles, they have Zach Britton back, but he’s not thrown well yet. His fastball velocity is down and his patented sinker isn’t playing up as a result. Brad Brach and Castro are solid relievers while Mychal Givens and Tanner Scott have good stuff, but the pen has been one of many issues for the O’s.
Of course, another issue is the offense. Manny Machado’s been the only real bright spot for the team with a .310/.377/.564 slash line and 21 homers. Odubel Herrera is the only Phillies player that can come close to that production. He’s only got 14 homers and a .283/.337/.475 slash line, providing less across the board.
The Phillies, however, have a bit more around Herrera. They’re not an elite offense by any means, but are better than Baltimore. The O’s have Danny Valencia, Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones as the only other offensive threats, all from the right-side. Chris Davis has been epically terrible with a .497 OPS, Jonathan Scoop is hitting below the Mendoza Line.
For the Phillies, they’re not getting the production they want from Scott Kingery or Jorge Alfaro, but they are at least providing more quality at bats than most of the O’s order while Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez, Nick Williams and Maikel Franco all at least have a 96 OPS+ or better, playing near or above average offensive baseball.
MLB Pick
The Orioles are bad, really bad. They’ve got the worst record in baseball and have struggled in all facets of the game.
The offense may have picked it up a bit of late, but they’re still an all-or-nothing type offense that can be exploited by good pitching, like Nola.
Look for Nola to dominate the Orioles lineup for six or seven solid frames before handing the ball over to a collection of good—if unproven—arms to close out the game.
In the end, this should be a rather easy win for Philadelphia who won’t have to face Bundy and will have a chance to score against a fill-in starter and injury riddled bullpen
The Phillies should get out to an early lead, build that lead throughout the game and cruise to an easy victory on Independence Day.
MLB Odds: Phillies 7, Orioles 2
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