This is truly a battle of David versus Goliath, except in this game, the Baltimore Orioles seemingly have even less chance than David as they play host to the Boston Red Sox in the finale of a three game series. The Sox enter the series playing some of their best baseball of the series and boasting the best record in the sport; the Orioles meanwhile have the worst record in baseball. While Dylan Bundy is on the mound and may have the best arm in the Orioles rotation, he’s matching up against David Price of the Red Sox and will face—perhaps—the best lineup in the game.
First pitch of the game between the Red Sox and Orioles is scheduled for Wednesday, July 25, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The matchup will be televised nationally on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
This matchup is almost unfair. The Red Sox have the best record in baseball and is 19-4 in their last 23 games while the Orioles are just 5-20 in their last 25 and have managed just 28 wins in their first 100 games.
Baltimore has a .327 winning percentage at home which is actually better than their road mark, but the Red Sox’s road winning percentage of .667 is more than double the O’s home percentage.
Regardless of location, the Sox are in a completely different stratosphere in terms of talent. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are both MVP candidates with a 1.110 and 1.021 OPS respectively. They both have power, average, OBP and Beets even brings speed to the table.
Those two, along with Andrew Benintendi who has a .303/.386/.522 slash line and both Mitch Moreland and Xander Bogarts are all putting up far superior offensive numbers to the best Orioles hitters.
Based on overall team stats, Boston ranks near the top of baseball in nearly every category. The Sox are first in runs scored and tile for first in team OPS at .795. The Orioles are only better than one team offensively: the Kansas City Royals. Meanwhile, Baltimore just traded away Manny Machado, their best offensive asset. Without Machado, the Orioles’ best hitters are now Adam Jones who has a .303 OBP, Mark Trumbo who leads the team with a 110 OPS+, and Danny Valencia who is little more than a platoon bat for a good team.
While the offense looks bad, the pitching makes this team look even worse.
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Bundy is a good young arm, but his development was hindered by injury and despite being a 25-year old in his third big league season, he’s still a bit raw.
The right-hander is 6-9 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.302 WHIP in his 19 starts. He’s tossed 108.1 innings. He’s shown an uptick in swing and miss over his previous seasons, but it hasn’t help his production. In fact, his ERA this season is higher than his previous two years and his FIP is up to 4.86 as he’s had trouble with the long ball. He’s already allowed 23 home runs and the Red Sox have plenty of pop to add to that number.
Like most young pitchers, Bundy has been streaky throughout his career—and his season. He’s amassed 1.2 WAR and has shown great stretches, but he’s been bad in his last three starts. In that span, he’s allowed five earned runs in each game, pitching to a 10.95 ERA and allowed more than two base runners an inning in those three starts.
This will be Bundy’s fourth start against Boston this year. He’s already had a great start, a solid one and a bad one.
In his last start against Boston—that one also coming at home—he went eight scoreless innings, allowing just three hits and two walks. Despite the amazing effort, the Orioles still managed to lose the game.
His first start of the year against the Sox was 5.2 innings where he allowed three runs—just one earned—and between the two starts already mentioned, he allowed four runs in six innings. Bundy is 0-2 this season against Boston in total.
So, while Bundy’s pitched well and not so well against Boston at different times this year, it’s always resulted in a loss. Overall, the O’s are 7-12 when Bundy pitches which is bad, but compared to the team’s overall winning percentage isn’t as bad as most of the rotation.
As for David Price, the veteran lefty captured a win in his only start against Baltimore this year, tossing a complete game and allowing two runs on five hits.
The Sox are 14-6 when Price takes the ball and 11-2 in his last 13 starts.
The Sox’s southpaw is 11-6 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.224 WHIP. His FIP is 4.29 and ERA+ sits at 106 showing he’s been—essentially—a solid mid-rotation option for Boston.
While Price is getting paid more than a mid-rotation arm should, he’s thrown better than Bundy in aggregate this year, though like the youngster he’s been a bit up-and-down, too.
Price has been terrible in two starts against the Yankees, allowing 12 runs in 4.1 innings. With those stats removed, he’s pitched to a 3.35 ERA against everyone other than New York.
Live Betting
In years past, the Orioles hung their hats on good infield defense, an offense built around the home run and a strong bullpen.
The infield defense is gone along with Machado while the offense hasn’t gotten more than 12 homers from anyone on the roster. As for the bullpen, that’s gone down the drain, too.
Zach Britton is looking good coming off injury, but he could easily be on a different team by Wednesday and will be used sparingly to protect his trade value. Brad Brach has had a bad year, letting trade rumors get to him.
Paul Fry has been good in his first few chances and Miguel Castro at least has a 118 ERA+. Still, its slim pickings here, too.
The Sox, on the other hand, have a lockdown closer in Craig Kimbrel. It is unlikely this game even gets close enough that he’s a factor, but he’s a good security blanket just in case.
As for the arms in the middle, Tyler Thornburg is finally healthy, Joe Kelly is a weapon, and Matt Barnes has been nearly as dominant as Kimbrel.
MLB Pick
Calling a win or a loss in this game is, mostly meaningless. The odds will be favoring the Red Sox to win dramatically. The more prudent bet would be by how much the Sox will beat the Birds.
Look for the Red Sox to get out to an early lead with the strength of their lineup—particularly at the top. Betts has owned the Orioles in his career. That’s not likely to stop on Wednesday.
Look for Betts to get a couple big hits against Bundy and lead Boston to an early lead which pushes Bundy out of the game rather early. From there, the Orioles bullpen has a couple pieces—though some may be dealt prior to Wednesday—even with all the pieces still intact, the middle of the pen remains susceptible.
This is a bad Orioles team. Price will handle the Baltimore offense with relative ease. Without Machado, there’s not much of an offensive threat. This team is loaded with strikeouts and while someone like Schoop or Jones may be able to notch a homer, the impact will be minimal.
Ultimately count on an easy victory for the Sox in this series finale.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 8, Orioles 3
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