On Sunday night in primetime, the Houston Astros finish off what was the hardest schedule in baseball over the last week with the final game of four against the Boston Red Sox after taking on the New York Yankees to start the week. To close the series—hopefully on a strong note—the Astros have one of their best stories on the mound. Charlie Morton and his 2.26 ERA take the mound for Houston while the Sox will lean on Rick Porcello who’s had a good start to the season, but has struggled a bit of late.
First pitch for the game between the Red Sox and Astros is scheduled for Sunday, June 3, 2018, at 7:35 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
Houston is the reigning World Series champions and the Astros have the better rotation, but it’s Boston that has the best record in baseball at 39-17 coming into the series.
The Red Sox also have the superior momentum. Houston just played a tough series against the Yankees and are tired, returning home after three hard-fought games.
Boston, however, just swept Toronto in relatively easy fashion. In total, the Red Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 games.
The Sox are pitching well, but it’s offensively where Boston has really dominated. Houston has the reigning MVP in Jose Altuve and clutch players up the middle in shortstop Carlos Correa and center fielder George Springer. Alex Bregman is a good young hitter at third. The top of Houston’s order is scary, but the bottom isn’t as good.
Houston hasn’t gotten as much production from Yuli Gurriel, Marwin Gonzalez and even Evan Gattis as expected. They have depth in Tony Kemp and J.D. Davis, but overall, they’re still behind Boston in scoring.
Thanks to Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, everyone is behind the Red Sox in scoring, even the vaunted New York Yankees.
Betts and Martinez are both crushing it at the plate. Betts has been more than 100-percent better than league average with 208 OPS+. He’s got a 1.187 OPS has hit 17 homers, driven in 37 and has a .359 average.
Martinez, meanwhile, has the lead in homers with 18 and RBIs with 47. His average is a bit behind at .322, but he’s got a chance to be a Triple Crown winner and not even be the best hitter on his team. That’s how dominating this tandem has been.
Of course, it takes more than two players—no matter how scorching hot—to make a good lineup. Mitch Moreland has a .312/.370/.632 slash line, showing himself as more than just a platoon option. Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi and Brock Holt are all playing more than 20-percent better than league average. Unfortunately, the rest of the lineup has been below average, leaving a few holes in the order. Dustin Pedroia fills one of those, though he’s just 1-for-13 in his first three games off the DL.
Probable Pitchers
Charlie Morton pitched his fourth straight quality start and his ninth of the season on Tuesday against the Yankees, his last start.
The veteran right-hander didn’t take the loss and preserved his undefeated 7-0 record, but Houston fell in that game as New York won late.
Morton has another tough matchup on Sunday, facing a team with more wins than the Bronx Bombers and an offense nearly as good.
Even with Boston’s offensive prowess, look for a good outing form Morton. The righty has been surprisingly consistent and is coming off his fourth 10 strikeout performance of the season. Prior to last year, he had four such performances in his career.
Morton’s success this season hasn’t gotten the press of Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole, but given his history, it’s probably the best story of the bunch in what has—to this point—been an all-time great rotation.
The now 34-year old had what looked like a break out season last year going 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA, but he’s been even better here in 2018. He’s 7-0 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.020 WHIP. He’s struck out 85 batters in 67.2 innings and has allowed just 47 hits.
His BABIP is low. It will regress, but even so, he’s sporting a 3.44 FIP and has built off what was already an impressive 2017.
Looking at the matchup, the Houston righty has faced the Red Sox just twice in his regular season career as he’s spent most his time in the NL. In those two starts, he’s 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA, allowing two runs in 10.1 innings. He allowed two runs in a start against them in last year’s ALDS.
Looking to outduel Morton is the Red Sox’s start: Rick Porcello.
The right-hander did notch a quality start in his last outing toppling a struggling Blue Jays team. Even though he pitched well, he still allowed two walks and hit two batters, illustrating his struggle controlling the ball.
Over his last seven games, Porcello has a 5.01 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. After looking the Cy Young winner from 2016 throughout April, he’s been more in line with the pitcher that struggled through 2015 and 2017 this last month.
Overall, Porcello is 7-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.135 WHIP. Those numbers are much closer to Morton’s season stats. Things get even closer when you factor in a 3.13 FIP for Porcello, a number that trumps that for Morton.
The main question in this matchup is: which Porcello will the Astros face? We’ve got a good idea of what to expect from Morton. He’s been remarkably consistent this season. Porcello, on the other hand, hasn’t.
If he’s the guy that started the season or even in line with his season stats, this could be a hard-fought battle. If, however, he pitches closer to that ERA from his last seven games—or even the 5.49 ERA he has in three starts against Houston—then the Astros should be able to get the win with relative ease.
Live Betting
On the road the Sox are great team—of course, they’re a great team anywhere. Still, this game should fall into Houston’s lap unless we see the Cy Young version of Porcello shine through.
With Morton likely to go six strong before turning things over to the pen, the Red Sox’s bats will have a few innings to try and put some runs on the board against the bullpen.
Houston’s bullpen does have a 2.67 team ERA, the best in the AL, but there is some vulnerability there despite the ERA and New York found it last series. Boston has the better offense—based on the numbers—so they could certainly find it, too.
Ken Giles has still not fully rebounded from the postseason struggles. He’s been inconsistent in 2018 and the weak link in the pen.
Of course, A.J. Hinch has other options to go to, but Sox’s manager Alex Cora was Hinch’s bench coach last year so he knows how Hinch thinks and can play along accordingly for the best matchups.
Still, there are enough options for Hinch in the later innings that the Astros should still be fine. That is, unless Porcello keeps this one close and it comes down to the pens. Boston’s pen has a higher cumulative ERA than Houston’s, but the Red Sox’s core guys—especially Craig Kimbrel as compared to Giles—are more reliable.
MLB Pick
Morton has been as consistent as anyone and over the last three games, facing the Indians and Yankees, two of the best hitting teams in May, he’s continued is dominance.
That said, the Yankees did beat the Astros in his last start with the loss going to the bullpen. It’s the pen that’s the Astros’ potential weak link here, but the Astros offense could minimize that with a good outing against a slumping Porcello.
The bottom of Houston’s lineup is still not clicking, but the top is strong and will get a couple cracks at Porcello. They should be able to break through for a few runs, giving Morton and the pen some wiggle room.
Look for the Astros get to Porcello for a few runs and then adding on against the Sox bullpen as Alex Cora won’t be running out the elite arms against his former team down by a few runs.
Houston should win this series finale at home with a bit of wiggle room unless Porcello finds the form he had back in April.
MLB Odds: Astros 6, Red Sox 3
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