In the third game of a four-game series against the Boston Red Sox on Saturday, the Houston Astros will once again try and show why they’re the defending World Series champions. Of course, this series is a rematch of sorts of a 2017 ALDS that the Astros tore through. On the mound, this matchup is intriguing, too, with a pair of former Cy Young Award winners and former teammates, too, battle with David Price and Justin Verlander both scheduled to pitch.
First pitch for the game between the Red Sox and Astros scheduled for Saturday, June, 2, 2018, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. The matchup will be shown on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
The Astros need to have a good showing in this series. They just finished a three-game series with the Yankees in New York where they lost the final two games, one in extra-innings.
Houston hung in there with New York and will undoubtedly do the same against Boston, this time at home where the Astros would assumedly have an advantage. That’s not necessarily the case, however. Boston is 19-9 on the road and Houston is 16-11 at home and 19-11 away from home.
For Houston, in this game, the key will be the bullpen. The Astros have their ace on the mound and they have a very good offense to face David Price who still has great stuff, but not on the same level as Verlander. We’ll examine the pitching matchup in a bit.
When it comes to the pen, Houston’s vulnerability showed in New York. On Tuesday, the Yankees got to Chris Devenski from two runs in an innings to push the game extras and scored a run off Brad Peacock to get the win. They scored off Collin McHugh on Wednesday, although that was a three-inning outing.
Peacock and Devenski have been the prime set up men for Ken Giles who has his own issues with a 4.76 ERA. They’re also the only two with saves other than Giles.
The back of the pen is a bit uncertain. Still, the numbers for Peacock, Devenski, Hector Rondon and McHugh on the season are outstanding. After all, Houston has the best bullpen ERA in the AL, one spot ahead of the Red Sox who sit at No.2.
Boston may have more issues in the middle innings than the Astros, but in the ninth, Craig Kimbrel is still as good as anyone and Joe Kelly has been nearly as good setting him up. If the Sox can get to Verlander and get a couple runs to carry the lead—or a tie—late in the game, Boston has the advantage, but that’s a tall order.
Probable Pitchers
With Price and Verlander having pitched in the same rotation—one that also included Max Scherzer, in case people forgot who good the Tigers’ rotation used to be, we have an intriguing pitching showdown set for Saturday.
Obviously, Verlander is the better of the two arms at this point of their careers despite being the elder statesman. Still, Price shouldn’t be overlooked.
Verlander is pitching as well as he has at any point in his career, including his MVP season. The veteran right-hander is coming off a strong start against a historically good Yankees’ offense where he tipped his hat to the booing fans when he left. He’s not only pitching well right now, his confidence is at an all-time high.
At 7-2 with a 1.11 ERA, Verlander leads baseball in ERA and it’s not all that close. He’s allowed 12 runs—10 earned—in 81.1 innings. That’s just insanely good. He’s keeping the ball in the park and in the zone. He’s walked 15 batters all season with 98 sat down on strikes. That’s good enough for a 6.53 strikeout to walk ratio.
While anyone sporting a 1.11 ERA must have some luck on their side, for Verlander, it’s just as much pure dominance as luck. He’s got a 2.21 FIP and 0.713 WHIP. He’s not letting anyone on base. He has had five homers hit off him, but when you give up a homer, it’s only a run unless someone is on.
Verlander has started 12 games and already has a 3.4 WAR. He’s been a historically dominant pitcher throughout his Houston career with a 12-2 record and 1.09 ERA in 17 starts dating back to last season. Including his time in Detroit, Verlander has a 2.88 ERA in 17 starts against the Red Sox.
Price cannot compete with those numbers. Nobody can. Price will need help, but he’s still not a bad guy to have toeing the rubber.
The veteran southpaw took a liner off the chest in his last start, but still managed to go five innings with just two runs allowed. It was his fourth straight start allowing two or fewer runs. He’s dropped his ERA more than a full run over those four starts from 5.11 to its current 4.04.
His career in Beantown hasn’t been all that stellar. For a Cy Young caliber arm, he’s been disappointing, but the talent is still in there and he’s pitching better lately despite some health scares.
All in all, Prices’ 2018 numbers don’t come close to Verlanders and his stats over the last three years don’t do that many favors either. He’s 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.267 WHIP this year and is 28-16 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in 62 games with Boston.
But, when you look at how Price has done against the Astros in his career, things get more interesting as he’s 5-2 with a 2.79 ERA, sporting similar numbers over 10 starts as Verlander has against the Sox in 17.
Live Betting
The Astros and Red Sox offenses both rank in the top three in runs scored. The Red Sox have the edge, scoring 18 more runs and posting a .801 OPS to Houston’s .746. In May, Boston’s outscored the Astros by eight runs in just one more game played.
Boston is a better hitting team right now than Houston, but most of that is a result of the otherworldly numbers being put up by J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts.
Against Verlander, Betts is 0-for-13 in his career and Martinez has never faced Verlander, spending most of his career as his teammate. In both cases, the advantage goes to the pitcher.
If Verlander can silence Betts and Martinez, he’s got a good chance against this lineup. Sure, Mitch Moreland is having an All-Star worthy season with a 1.011 OPS and Xander Bogaerts is right up there with the other elite shortstops in the AL, but this team’s offense revolves around Betts at the top with a .359/.437/.750 slash line and Martinez in the middle belting 18 bombs and driving in 47.
Houston doesn’t have anyone that comes close to matching up with the production of Betts or Martinez, but they do have Jose Altuve who is 7-for-19 lifetime against Price. Brian McCann also hits him well with three dingers, but he’s on the shelf. Still, Carlos Correa is 2-for-5 with a homer while George Springer has also taken him yard.
MLB Pick
What a pitching matchup! It would have been even better if Price was pitching at the top of his game.
The veteran southpaw is throwing better than he has at times in his Red Sox career, but he’s not to the same level he was when he won his Cy Young Award. Meanwhile, Verlander is arguably pitching better than he has at any other point in his career.
Verlander’s made some of the best offenses in baseball—including the Yankees—look foolish and could certainly do the same against the Sox. The righty has to struggle sometime, but with how well he’s throwing now, it’s hard to bet that struggle will come on Saturday.
Instead, look for another dominating outing by the right-hander. Price should be able to keep Boston close in the game, but ultimately, Houston should pull this one out with Verlander going deep and the Houston bullpen with enough options for the final couple innings.
Bank on a lower scoring game on Saturday as the pitchers rule the day.
MLB Odds: Astros 4, Red Sox 2
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