After a series against the Yankees in the Bronx, the Houston Astros will return home on Thursday, but the competition doesn’t get any easier as the Astros welcome the Boston Red Sox to Texas. Boston, New York and Houston remain at the top of most Power Rankings, boasting the best combination of pitching, hitting and defense. These are the three most complete team in the AL, if not the Majors, and after taking on one of the big dogs this past week, the Astros will try and survive four games against the Sox.
First game for the series between the Red Sox and Astros is scheduled for Thursday, May 31, 2018, at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. The series continues throughout the weekend with all four games broadcast on national television. The games on Thursday and Friday nights will be on MLB Network. FOX has the rights to Saturday evenings matchup while Sunday’s game will be ESPN’s Sunday Night Game of the Week.
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Odds Analysis
Boston has won nine of its last 12 games to grab a slight lead over the Yankees in the AL East standings. The Sox’s recent run has come largely because of an excellent offense, though the pitching cannot be overlooked.
Still, Boston’s bats do hold an advantage—however slight—over the Astros. The Red Sox rank second in baseball in runs scored with 287, just behind New York. The Astros are in third place, scoring 275 runs. The difference is a bit more pronounced when you consider the Sox are hitting seven points higher and boast a .793 OPS compared to Houston’s .760.
Of course, Houston’s pitching is no stranger to a dominant offense, particularly coming off a series against the Yankees. No matter how prepared, Boston provides a unique challenge.
Unlike the Yankees, Boston is a bit less prone to the strikeout. They’re not as prolific of a home run team either though the tandem of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez do lead the sport in homers, combining for 34 dingers with 17 apiece.
Betts is dealing with some nagging injuries which are a concern. If he’s in the lineup, however, he’s as good a hitter as anyone this year. He’s batting .359 with a 1.187 OPS. He’s got power and speed with 13 steals. Martinez, meanwhile, has a .320/.379/.650 slash line while driving in 44 runs.
Beyond those two—who far exceed any tandem Houston has—the Sox also have Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland and Andrew Benintendi having great seasons. There are a few holes in the order though.
Behind the plate and center field have both been black holes. Second base production is also down, though Dustin Pedrioa is now back and getting settled in.
As for the Astros, it’s hard to be too critical of the offense. They are third in scoring. After leading baseball in runs last year, they’ve been solid again though Jose Altuve’s power has disappeared while Marwin Gonzalez is hitting just .221, struggling to replicate his 2017 success.
Still, between Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman, the team has a killer top of the order. Like Boston, however, there are some holes. Jake Marisnick, back in the Majors after Josh Reddick’s injury, is hitting .153, Gonzalez hasn’t been himself and both Brian McCann and Yuli Gurriel have produced at below league average levels.
Even so, this is still a more than formidable offense and one of few to even come close to Boston’s lineup.
Probable Pitchers
While the Red Sox hold a slight advantage offensively over the Astros, where Houston has distinguished itself from all other clubs in baseball is in the rotation.
The Astros have the best team ERA in the sport by a mile, largely due to the extraordinary rotation. With the team’s worst starting pitcher ERA still south of four, the Astros are given a chance to win every game, regardless of matchup. That, of course, is true of this series.
In the four-game set, the Astros have Lance McCullers Jr., Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton lined up to make the starts. Boston is set to counter with Drew Pomeranz, Chris Sale, David Price and Drew Porcello.
The Astros have one Cy Young on tap while the Red Sox have two, plus Sale. Nevertheless, it’s Houston’s rotation that’s dominated with a 2.44 cumulative ERA to Boston’s 3.84.
Thursday, the Red Sox get the weakest of the Astro starters based on ERA in McCullers who has a 3.98 ERA, but he’s pitching to a 1.184 WHIP and has a 3.52 FIP. That’s a whole lot better than the struggling Pomeranz who is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.875 WHIP. Pomeranz is walking the world and missing his spots both in the zone and out. McCullers did slump in his last start, giving up seven runs in 4.1 innings. Before that, however, he allowed three runs or fewer in seven straight starts, giving up one run or less in four of them.
As the series progresses, the task gets tougher for the offenses. The pitching matchup on Friday may be the best of the bunch with Cole and Sale.
Cole’s been filthy this year. He’s 5-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.830 WHIP in his 11 starts. He’s pitching nearly seven innings a start, too, with 74.1 innings of work. His 109 strikeouts lead the league. Not only is he missing bats, but even when the opposition does get the bat on the ball, they’re not doing much with 5.2 hits per nine innings and just seven homers allowed.
On the flip side, Sale has been the best start in the Sox’s rotation by a landslide. He’s 5-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.960 WHIP. Those numbers aren’t quite as good as the ones Cole is putting up, but they’re close.
Sale is even keeping up in the swing-and-miss category, too, with 104 strikeouts in 75 innings of work. Friday should be a low scoring game.
In Game 3, the Astros have the advantage again with Justin Verlander starting. Coming off a strong outing against the Yankees, Verlander now has an ERA of 1.11. He’s 7-2 and has a 0.713 WHIP. At 35, Verlander is as good as he’s ever been. He’s nearly a lock to go seven and allow two or fewer runs. On the other side, David Price certainly could match that, but he’s been far less consistent.
Price is 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.267 WHIP. The southpaw hasn’t allowed more than two runs in four straight games though and that’s worth noting. He went six or fewer innings in three of those four games, but that would be enough to keep Boston in the game even against Verlander.
The series will end on Sunday with yet another fun matchup of Charlie Morton and Rick Porcello.
Morton’s 7-0 start with a 2.04 ERA and 0.973 WHIP have gone somewhat under the radar given how well Verlander and Cole are pitching, but Morton’s getting the wins. In 10 starts, he’s gone 61.2 innings. He’s less likely to go beyond six frames, but he’ll turn the ball over to the pen with a lead often.
Porcello, meanwhile, has regressed a bit after a great start. He had a 2.14 ERA as recently as May 8, but since then has made four starts, allowing 19 runs—17 earned—in 21 innings. Overall, he’s 6-2 with a 3.74 ERA, but he’s trending in the wrong direction.
Live Betting
The rotation favors Houston and so does the venue, at least on paper, though the Astros have performed about as well on the road as at home. Boston is much the same, going 19-9 on the road. Both teams have been rather ballpark agnostic to this point.
With the matchup between these two powerhouses so tight, we’re going to have several close games coming down to the wire in this game. And, much like the offense, the bullpen stats have these two teams very close. Houston’s pitching to a 2.91 ERA while Boston is pitching to a 3.16 ERA out of the pen. The Red Sox have also gotten 40 more innings from the pen.
With the stacked rotation, Houston has given A.J. Hinch the luxury or a well-rested pen and he’s exploited that luxury. The Astro’s bullpen is deep. Pretty much every option for Hinch is a good one. He doesn’t have to go back to the proverbial well too often and has several different looks he can select from for the best matchup.
In Boston, the pen is a bit stronger in the ninth with Craig Kimbrel, but a little more vulnerable in the middle innings. Joe Kelly’s been lights out setting up for Kimbrel while Matt Barnes and Hector Velazquez have been great, too.
In the end, we’re really nitpicking to differentiate those two bullpens, further illustrating just how good both these teams appear.
MLB Pick
Given how tight these teams are on offense and in the bullpen, the most logical thing to expect here is a split, but Houston could still pull off a series win over Boston given the pitching matchups.
Look for the Astros to win the series opener, taking advantage of some of Pomeranz’s struggles while McCullers bounces back from a rough start to go six strong, then looking to the pen to close it out. If Pomeranz struggles, it could force more innings from the pen for Boston which could weaken the Sox’s for the rest of the weekend.
With Cole and Verlander the next two starters, it’s hard to imagine Boston stealing more than one of those games even with Sale and Price on the bump. That really leaves it to the series finale and Pomeranz to outduel Morton to get a split.
In the end, with Pomeranz and Porcello not pitching at their best right now and with Cole and Verlander slated to face the Sox’s best starters, the Astros have the advantage in at least three of the four games in the rotation. Given these two teams are hard to separate offensively and in the bullpen given the numbers, count on Houston winning this series, taking three of four.
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