Typically primetime, nationally televised games feature a balanced matchup of contending teams, but on Saturday, FOX will feature one of the game’s best teams against one of its worst as the rebuilding Kansas City Royals play host to the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox will throw David Price in the contest against the Royals’ rookie right-hander Brad Keller who has impressed so far in his young career.
First pitch for the game between the Red Sox and Royals is scheduled for Saturday, July 7, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium. The matchup will be shown on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
Not even winning 30-percent of their games, the Royals have dropped six straight and 25 of their last 30 games. This is a bad team playing at its worst level.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 30-games above-.500 and just swept the Nationals. While they did lose two of three from the Yankees last weekend, the Sox have series wins against the Angels, Mariners and Nationals around that series loss. The Yankees are a better team than all three the other mentioned squads, but Los Angeles, Seattle and Washington are all loads better than Kansas City.
Statistically, there’s no comparison between the teams. The Red Sox have scored more runs than any other team at 457. The Royals have the fewest runs scored at 297. They also have a .661 OPS compared to a .787 mark in Boston. The Sox have also hit nearly twice as many home runs.
Defensively, Kansas City’s been pretty good, but they’re no longer the best like they were in their hay day. The Sox have a similar fielding percentage and just two more errors on the year.
And then there’s pitching, on the mound Boston has the fourth best team ERA in baseball at 3.55, the Royals are dead last at 5.18. We’ll look at the starting pitching for this game soon, but even the bullpens are direct opposites. It’s the bullpen that carried the Royals to its back-to-back Fall Classic appearances, but now their pen has a 5.08 ERA, worst in the AL. Boston’s ERA is almost two runs lower.
Probable Pitchers
David Price comes into this game needing a bounce back effort after being hit around by the Yankees in his last start, allowing eight runs and nine hits—including five home runs—in just 3.1 innings of work.
Kansas City is the perfect team for Price to face right now. He’s 2-0 with a 1.56 ERA against the Royals in three career games.
This season, Price is 9-6 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in 96.2 innings of work. He’s not pitching great, but he’s been generally pretty solid. In fact, prior to the beat down against New York, he had a 3.66 ERA and was seemingly getting back on track.
In general, Price has struggled in big games. He’s been a bad postseason pitcher and has had three truly bad outings this year—two coming against the Yankees. Against everyone other than the Yankees this year, Price is 9-4 with a 3.31 ERA. While that doesn’t bode well for the Sox in the stretch run where they’ll be battling the Yankees for the division down to the wire, it does bode well for a good outing from the veteran southpaw on Saturday.
Prior to last start, Price also had five straight quality starts and had given up just five home runs in ten games. He’s now allowed 10 in his last 11 contests. Fortunately, the Royals aren’t big on hitting long balls and their primary home run threat is a lefty.
While Price needs to bounce back, he’s a veteran pitcher with a long track record, something that the Royals’ hurler, Brad Keller, doesn’t have.
Keller, however, has looked good since joining the rotation. The 22-year old rookie right-hander is just 1-2 in six starts, but has pitched to a 2.14 ERA in 33.2 innings. He’s giving the team a chance to win which is more than can be said about the rest of the rotation.
In his last two starts, Keller has thrown 15 innings and he’s getting his pitch count up. In those innings, he’s allowed just one run on eight hits and two walks. He’s not a big strikeout machine, but he’s getting the job done.
Prior to joining the rotation, Keller was pitching well in relief, too. He’s got a 2.09 ERA in 56 innings.
While Keller’s performances still haven’t yielded many wins, it’s not his fault. He’s putting KC in a position to win, but the offense and bullpen are letting the team down.
Live Betting
The numbers don’t lie. We have one of the best all-around teams against one of the worst. It stands to reason Boston should get the easy win. While Keller throwing well makes things a bit closer, when we break down the rest of this matchup on a player level, things get even more absurd in Boston’s favor.
The Royals have just two players with double-digit home runs: Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez. Of those two, only Moustakas is having a good offensive season. Perez is batting .214 with a .255 OBP. Moose has a 113 OPS+, but his numbers have been steadily declining after a hot start.
The only other above average bat on the active roster right now—if you don’t count the streaky Lucas Duda—is Whit Merrifield. He’s a good OBP guy and has some speed, bu the’ snot one to drive in runs.
On the mound, they no longer have Kelvin Herrera who they traded to the Nationals and with Keller now in the rotation, they’re out their best two relievers on a team with the worst bullpen ERA in the AL.
On the other side, the Sox’s lineup is stacked. Even with Jackie Bradley Jr. still not hitting all that well and with Christian Vazquez, Eduardo Nunez, Sandy Leon and Blake Swihart all slumping, this team can still rake.
While the Royals have two double-digit homer hitters, the Sox have six including two with at least 21 long balls in Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Speaking of those two, they have an OPS+ of 190 and 174 respectively while Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts and Mitch Moreland are all hitting more than 20-percent above league average according to OPS+.
The Sox also recently added Steve Pearce to the roster. Pearce is great against southpaws and can matchup in any late game situation to help against a tough lefty.
MLB Pick
Home or away, no matter what the situation, the Red Sox are worlds better than the Royals. They have the superior pitching—regardless of pitching matchup—a much more complete offense, and a better bullpen.
Look for Price to rebound from his rough outing against the Yankees to effectively shut down the Royals offense. He’s struggled in big games, but has looked good against the lesser teams, like the Royals.
After six or seven solid, the southpaw will turn the game over to the bullpen who likely won’t even need to use Kimbrel in the ninth.
In baseball, the worst team can beat the best team on any given day. It’s a long season and in one game over 162, anything can happen, but the mismatch doesn’t get much more pronounced than this one even if Keller has looked good so far.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 7, Royals 3
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