The New York Yankees will host the first place Boston Red Sox in the first of three Tuesday night. It’ll be the fourth installment of classic Yankee-Red Sox rivalry for the 2018 season. After a lull the rivalry, these two teams are back atop the AL East standings and battling for divisional supremacy. Kicking off this series, the Bronx Bombers are going with their best arm, Luis Severino, while the Red Sox have Drew Pomeranz lined up to take the ball.
First pitch for the game between the Yankees and Red Sox is scheduled for Tuesday, May 8, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. The matchup will be shown on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
The Yankees come into play having won six in a row and 15 of their last 16 games. They’re red hot, scoring runs in bunches and getting more than enough from a pitching staff that is flawed, but still deep.
While the New York pitching shouldn’t be overlooked, it’s the offense that’s taken center stage during this run.
Last year, this team was called the Baby Bombers, but they may have graduated, leading baseball in runs scored, they’re batting .251 as a team—which in this offensive environment qualifies as a good team average. They’re also second in home runs behind the power laden Blue Jays team.
On the other side, the Red Sox are second in the sport in runs scored, just a few runs behind the Yankees. They’ve also hit a few fewer homers and have less walks, but they’re hitting .269 which, surprisingly enough, puts them as the best team at putting the ball in play.
For the Sox, Mookie Betts has been at the center of the offensive storm. He’s combining power and average with a league leading 13 homers along with 12 doubles, a .352 average and a .433 OBP. J.D. Martinez and, to a lesser extent, Rafael Devers and Mitch Moreland are all bringing a bit more power, the thing this team was missing last year.
Probable Pitchers
For Pomeranz, Tuesday is just his fourth start of the 2018 season. One of the Red Sox’s many late starters to the season, Pomeranz was injured out of the gate and is easing back into the grind of the big-league season.
The Yankees are the forced foe for Pomeranz with postseason expectations. He struggled through 3.2 innings against the Athletics in his first start and allowed four runs in five frames against the Rays in his second outing.
The last time out, Pomeranz started pitching a bit better. He notched his first quality start of the season with a six-inning, three-run performance against the Royals. Overall, however, he’s still just 1-1 with a 6.14 ERA, a decent number of strikeouts, but way too many base runners allowed.
Pomeranz has, however, shown the ability to step up to the pressure in his career and has been good in his 10 games against the Yankees. In total, against New York, Pomeranz is 3-2 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in 51.1 innings. Those numbers aren’t too shabby. Last year, he was 2-1 with a 4.10 ERA in five starts.
While Pomeranz is just getting back into form, Severino is already back into his 2017 form, the same form that earned him a top-3 finish in the Cy Young Award voting and 2.98 ERA in 193.1 innings.
In his first seven starts of 2018, Severino has improved the ERA. He’s 5-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in 47 innings. He recorded his first career shutout in his last start and his pitching the best he has in his young career.
Seeing how he rebounds from the shutout will be worth watching. He threw 110 pitches in that start, the second most of the year. He followed up a 112-pitch performance on April 22 with a seven innings, three run game against the Los Angeles Angels. A similar result against Boston would undoubtedly be considered a win.
Live Betting
The Yankees bullpen has been highly lauded since an impressive performance in the 2017 postseason. The team stacked up the relief core during the trade deadline and the unit returned for the 2018 season.
The names that New York can trot out there in relief of the starters are impressive. Aroldis Chapman is throwing the ball well right now. He’s pitched in 15 games, throwing 15 innings and striking out 30. He’s allowed just eight hits and while his ERA is 1.80, his FIP is a microscopic 0.36.
Chad Green is replicating his success from 2017 with electric stuff and even with Adam Warren and Tommy Kahnle on the DL, the Yankees have flame thrower after flame thrower lined up, all able to strikeout you at seemingly at will.
That said, Dellin Betances continues to struggle with command, Jonathan Holder has been a bit of a perplexing puzzle and the long guys have been a revolving door.
The names aside, the Yankees and Red Sox have essentially identical team bullpen ERAs. Boston’s set up options leading to Craig Kimbrel aren’t nearly as impressive, but as a unit, the team is getting it done as well as the Yankees.
MLB Pick
The Yankees have really turned the corner after a slow start and are playing the type of baseball most experts expected at the beginning of the season.
The sluggers are delivering and the young prospects appear ahead of schedule, leading to a dynamic offense—despite injuries. While the bullpen has been a bit more vulnerable than expected and the rotation is the likely weak spot, Severino diminishes some of the pitching concerns on Tuesday.
Severino is coming off his first career shutout. Don’t look for another from Severino, but seven solid innings are certainly possible. Look for Severino to deliver better than his five-run in five inning outing last time against Boston and give the ball to the bullpen with the lead.
Count on the Yankees getting a couple early runs on Pomeranz and carrying that along to victory in what should be a close, well-pitched game, even with two of the more prolific offenses.
MLB Odds: Yankees 5, Red Sox 4
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