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The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will wrap up the latest installment of their heated rivalry Sunday when the Bronx Bombers host the Sox for the finale of three. This is just the matchup ESPN loves to show on Sunday Night Baseball. As tired as some fans are of the Boston versus New York rivalry, the matchup sells and makes great television. This one is particularly great given David Price and Luis Severino are slated to take the mound.
First pitch for the game between the Red Sox and Yankees is scheduled for Sunday, July 1, 2018, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
It’s hard to find a game with more meaning in early July than a battle between these two heated rivals. It’s still too early for a single game to really have all that much meaning, but the pennant race for the AL East could easily come down to a single game. Neither the Red Sox nor Yankees show any signs of slowing down; both are on pace to easily top 100 wins.
With the Wild Card winner having to play a one-game play-in game, the stakes to win the division are high and these two teams are the best in the game. Neither wants such a strong season to come down to a single game.
Coming into this series, Boston and New York have faced each other six times, splitting those games.
Boston also enters the series 27-15 on the road and have won 15 of their last 23 games. The Yankees have dropped four of six on their recent road trip so they’ll be happy to return home where they’ve got a .725 winning percentage. They won two of three against Boston at home back in early May.
Statistically, it’s hard to find two more evenly matched teams. The Yankees are pitching better than the Red Sox in June, but the Sox are hitting better this month. On the year, the Sox and Yankees are second and third—in one order or another—in both runs scored and runs allowed. Along with Houston, they’re clearly two of the three best teams in baseball.
Probable Pitchers
Sunday might be the best pitching matchup of the series as the Yankees send Luis Severino to the mound looking for his league leading 13th win and the Red Sox counter with David Price who has pitched exceptionally well of late.
Severino become the first starter in the Majors to reach 12 wins in his last start, throwing seven shutout innings against the Phillies. He’s now 12-2 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.958 WHIP in 111.2 innings pitched. His 2.21 FIP also leads the league.
The 24-year old right-hander was third in Cy Young voting last year and has been even better so far this year. He’s lowered his walk rate and hit rate while maintaining a solid 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Perhaps most impressively so far, he’s allowed just six home runs after giving up 21 in 193.1 innings alst year.
While it’s hard to find a blemish to Severino’s season, the one area that could use an improvement is his numbers against Boston. He’s faced the Sox twice this season and is winless against them with a 5.73 ERA. In his career, the young righty has already faced the Red Sox 10 times, including nine starts, going 2-5 with a 4.61 ERA in those starts. He’s been a strikeout machine against Boston, but has allowed a few too many homers.
On the other side of this matchup, David Price has thrown only one inning against the Yankees this year, allowing four runs. He’s 15-12 in his career against the Yankees, facing the Bronx Bombers on 39 separate occasions while posting a 4.67 ERA and allowing 27 home runs.
Overall this season, Price has battled a few early injuries, but he’s found his groove. Overall, he’s 9-5 with a 3.66 ERA and the Sox are 11-5 when he takes the ball. They’ve won eight of his last nine starts and Price himself is 7-1 in those nine games. He’s got a 3.00 ERA in those nine starts and a 2.79 ERA in his last seven games.
The southpaw has five straight quality starts including a one-run, six-inning outing against the Angels in his last outing.
Live Betting
While few offenses enjoy facing Severino, the Sox have had as much success as anyone recently. Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi are two big reasons why.
Benintendi is 9-for-19 against the righty with two home runs, two doubles, a triple and 10 RBIs. Betts is 7-for-22 with three doubles and three walks, giving him a .400 OBP in his 25 plate appearances. J.D. Martinez has a smaller sample size, but he’s 3-for-9.
Those three sluggers are the heart of the Red Sox’s lineup. Betts is the leader with 4.6 WAR and has a 1.111 OPS with a .338 average, 20 homers and 41 RBIs. Martinez leads Betts in all the Triple Crown categories except average where his .329 mark is close. He’s got a .329/.396/.654 slash line that would lead nearly any other team, but is just behind Betts with a 1.050 OPS. His 25 homers and 64 RBIs, however, are first on the team as he’s taken advantage of Betts time on the DL to lead in those areas.
As for Benintendi, his .892 OPS seems like nothing compared to the other two, but he’s having a monster season in his own right and has helped make it that much harder for pitchers to pitch around Martinez or Betts.
In New York, the Yankees will have to contend with a southpaw in this game. Of course, the big sluggers in the middle in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are righty swingers. Meanwhile, lefty hitting Didi Gregorius is 12-for-28 against Price with a home run so how much does being a southpaw help Price in this matchup?
One good thing for Price is the injury to Gary Sanchez. The Yankee catcher is on the shelf, but is 6-for-12 with five home runs against Price in his career. Of course, Austin Romine has handled himself well against Price, too. He doesn’t have a homer, but is 6-for-14 with a couple doubles.
MLB Pick
An excellent prime time matchup. This could be a lower scoring game despite featuring two of the game’s best offenses.
Price is throwing well right now and Severino’s one of the best pitchers in the American League. Look for the big boppers in both lineups to have some trouble, but eventually homers may account for all the offenses as neither pitcher is likely to allow too many base runners to reach to allow for any long rallies.
While Price as the more storied career, Severino’s been the better pitcher the last couple years and he’s also got the better bullpen—or at least deeper bullpen—behind him.
Look for Severino to pitch a good game despite some struggles against the Sox this year. He’ll then turn it over to the pen to hold the lead in what should ultimately be a close, lower scoring affair.
MLB Odds: Yankees 4, Red Sox 3
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