It took a couple weeks before we got our first series between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees and it’s a short two-game set in the Big Apple with the series finale broadcast live on ESPN. These two teams are still projected as the favorites in the AL East even with tepid starts from each and a red-hot Tampa Bay Rays team out of the gate. These two rivals will look for a statement win in to wrap up this brief series on Wednesday night.
First pitch for the game between the Red Sox and Yankees is scheduled for Wednesday, April 17, 2019, at 6:35 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
These hated rivals face off 19-times a year with Wednesday’s game just the second meeting of the year. Last year, both teams won at least 100 games. Last year the Sox got the better of the matchups, but just barely, winning 10 of the 19 meetings.
Boston also outscored the Yankees last year by 14 runs in their head-to-head meetings and were first in baseball in runs scored. The Yankees were second.
The Sox’s offense has gotten off to a slower start in 2019. The starting pitching has been the biggest issue behind their slow start, but the offense ranks in the middle of the pack in baseball rather than at the top.
J.D. Martinez and Mitch Moreland are hitting well, but Mookie Betts is batting just .233. Jackie Bradley Jr. has also had a slow start.
While the offense isn’t performing at its best, the lineup is mostly healthy which is much more than can be said about the Yankees who have Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, Troy Tulowitzki, and Didi Gregorius on the Injured List.
All the injuries have forced D.J. LeMahieu, Clint Frazier, Luke Voit, Greg Bird, and Tyler Wade into every day at bats.
Gary Sanchez was the most recent add to the IL and pushes Austin Romine into the starting catcher role. Romine is a better defender than Sanchez, but doesn’t have near the power.
Wade is also a major downgrade, but other fill-ins have embraced the opportunity, including Frazier who has three homers and 10 RBIs along with a .297 average. LeMahieu is also hitting well, batting nearly .400. That said, the bottom of the order is lacking with all the injuries.
Probable Pitchers
The Yankees and Red Sox each have a struggling starter lined up to make the start in this primetime showdown with New York going with J.A. Happ and Boston having Nathan Eovaldi lined up for the start after Hector Velazquez gets a spot start on Monday to push everyone back a day.
Both Happ and Eovaldi were midseason acquisitions last year by their respective teams, Eovaldi coming from Tampa Bay and Happ coming from Toronto.
They both made a huge impact on their team’s postseason runs and became priorities for their teams to resign in the offseason. After impressing last year, both have struggled out of the gate in 2019.
For Happ, the veteran southpaw is 0-2 with an 8.76 ERA and 1.946 WHIP in 12.1 innings. He’s barely averaging four innings a start and has been exceptionally hittable. He does have 13 strikeouts, but has also allowed 19 hits—including four home runs.
He’s got a career 104 ERA+ and has shown to be a solid mid-rotation arm. This year, however, he hasn’t been able to locate his fastball consistently and that’s gotten him in trouble.
He’ll hope to get that command back on Wednesday when he faces a Red Sox team that had issues against him last year. He had a 1.99 ERA in four starts against Boston in 2018. Though, the Sox did tag him for five runs—including a homer—in just two innings in the ALDS.
On the other side of this matchup, Eovaldi has also shown issues with command. Like Happ, he’s given up more than his share of home runs, but he’s also had trouble finding the strike zone. He’s walked 10 batters with 10 strikeouts. In 15 innings, he’s allowed 14 runs on 18 hits and has given up a league leading six home runs.
Eovaldi hasn’t been credited with a loss yet, but hasn’t helped his team win in three starts. He’s gone a bit deeper than Happ, but has still taxed the pen.
The Boston right-hander took care of the Yankees in the ALDS last year going seven innings of one-run ball and is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in four career starts against New York. He’s also had some success in Yankee Stadium. The former Yankee is 10-4 with a 3.70 ERA there.
That’s all good, but going into this game, both Happ and Eovaldi have not thrown well. This matchup will come down to which can rediscover their command. If both continue as they have in their first three starts, it could be a short outing for both.
Live Betting
If the starters cannot get outs, the bullpens could be engaged early in this game. The Yankees and Red Sox have had similar results so far from their pens.
Coming into the year, the Yankees’ pen rated much better than the Sox who lost both Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel in the offseason. The defending World Series champions had serious questions in the pen. In the start of the 2019 season, the pen has exceeded expectation. The Yankees, on the other hand, were supposed to have an otherworldly pen, but have underperformed those expectations.
The Boston pen has Ryan Braiser and Matt Barnes in late inning roles after both had strong performances last year. The two have given up just two combined runs in 14 innings. Perhaps even bigger than that, they’ve walked three total batters in those 14 innings.
Braiser and Barnes were middle inning arms last year and have been promoted. They’ve risen to the occasion, but getting to those two is where the pen is vulnerable. Given Eovaldi’s shorter outings in his first three starts, the middle relievers will play a role in this one.
We’ll see if Heath Hembree, Tyler Thornburg and Marcus Walden can rise to the occasion.
There’s much more depth in the Yankee bullpen. While the Yankees have been littered with injuries, only Dellin Betances and Ben Heller have been bullpen victims.
That leaves Aroldis Chapman, Adam Ottavino, Zack Britton and Chad Green as back-end options with Jonathan Holder coming off a great year last year.
Chapman’s velocity is down, Britton has had some command issues, and Green has given up seven runs—including three homers—in his 5.1 innings.
The Yankees’ pen is deeper than the Red Sox and despite some less than expected performances, they’re still the better bet if this game comes down to the pens.
MLB Pick
Neither Happ nor Eovaldi are throwing the ball well right now. Both will need the help of their offense to get the win.
Look for a high scoring game with plenty of fireworks. It should be a good day to get a souvenir if you’re sitting out in the outfield in Yankee Stadium. Count on a bunch of runs and some impressive home runs against these struggling hurlers.
Both bullpens should get involved early. Even with the depleted Yankee lineup, look for Aaron Judge, Gleybar Torres and company to crank a few out of the park and take advantage of some free passes to help give them an early edge over the Sox. The Yankee bullpen hasn’t been as good as expected so far, but there’s enough firepower there to hold the lead against the Sox.
In the end, take the home team and the deeper Yankee bullpen at BookMaker.eu.
MLB Odds: Yankees 9, Red Sox 7
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